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GMAT考试写作指导:Argument范文七一

发布时间:2016-03-02  编辑:查字典英语网小编

  19. Recent social changes in the country of Spiessa lead the author to predict a

  continued surge in growth of that countrys restaurant industry. Rising personal incomes,

  additional leisure time, an increase in single-person households, and greater interest in

  gourmet food are cited as the main reasons for this optimistic outlook. All of these

  factors are indeed relevant to growth in the restaurant industry; so the prediction appears

  reasonable on its face. However, three questionable assumptions operative in this

  argument bear close examination.

  The first dubious assumption is that the supply of restaurants in Spiessa will

  continue to grow at the same rate as in the recent past. However, even in the most

  favorable conditions and the best of economic times there are just so many restaurants

  that a given population can accommodate and sustain. It is possible that the demand for

  restaurants has already been met by the unprecedented growth of the past decade, in

  which case the recent social changes will have little impact on the growth of the

  restaurant industry.

  A second assumption is that the economic and social circumstances cited by the

  author will actually result in more people eating out at restaurants. This assumption is

  unwarranted, however. For example, increased leisure time may just as likely result in

  more people spending more time cooking gourmet meals in their own homes. Also,

  single people may actually be more likely than married people to eat at home than to go

  out for meals. Finally, people may choose to spend their additional income in other

  ways―on expensive cars, travel, or larger homes.

  A third poor assumption is that, even assuming people in Spiessa will choose to

  spend more time and money eating out, no extrinsic factors will stifle this demand. This

  assumption is unwarranted. Any number of extrinsic factors―such as a downturn in the

  general economy or significant layoffs at Spiessas largest businesses―may stall the

  current restaurant surge. Moreover, the argument fails to specify the social changes

  that have led to the current economic boom. If it turns out these changes are politically

  driven, then the surge may very well reverse if political power changes hands.

  In conclusion, this argument unfairly assumes a predictable future course for both

  supply and demand. To strengthen the argument, the author must at the very least show

  that demand for new restaurants has not yet been exhausted, that Spiessa can

  accommodate new restaurants well into the future, and that the people of Spiessa

  actually want to eat out more.   

  

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