GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文七七

　　13. In an attempt to sell radio advertising time, this ad claims that radio advertising

　　will make businesses more profitable. The evidence cited is a ten percent increase in

　　business that the Cumquat Cafe has experienced in the year during which it advertised

　　on the local radio station. This argument is unconvincing because two questionable

　　assumptions must be made for the stated evidence to support the authors conclusion.

　　The first assumption is that radio advertising alone has caused the increase in

　　business at the Cumquat Cafe. This assumption is questionable because it overlooks a

　　number of other factors that might have contributed to the Cumquats success. For

　　example, the Cumquat might have changed owners or chefs; it might have launched a

　　coupon ad campaign in the local print media; or it might have changed or updated the

　　menu. Yet another possibility is that a local competitor went out of business. These are

　　just a few of the factors that could help explain the Cumquats growth. Because the

　　author fails to eliminate these possibilities, the assumption in question need not be

　　accepted.

　　Even if it is granted that radio advertising is responsible for the Cumquats

　　success, another assumption must be made before we can conclude that radio

　　advertising will result in increased profits for businesses in general. We must also

　　assume that what is true of the Cumquat will likewise be true of most other businesses.

　　But there are all kinds of important differences between cafes and other businesses that

　　could affect how radio audiences react to their advertising. We cannot safely assume

　　that because a small restaurant has benefited from radio advertising, that any and all

　　local businesses will similarly benefit.

　　In conclusion, it would be imprudent for a business to invest in radio advertising

　　solely on the basis of the evidence presented. To strengthen the conclusion, it must be

　　established that radio advertising was the principal cause of increased business at the

　　Cumquat. Once this is shown, it must be determined that the business in question is

　　sufficiently like the Cumquat, and so can expect similar returns from investment in