GMAT新黄金80题及范文(七)

　　二.Analysis of Argument Questions

　　1. The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods.

　　Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.

　　下面摘自一家冷冻食品处理商奥林匹克食品提交给股东的年报：随着时间流逝，由于机构了解了做好事情的方法进而提高了效率，处理的成本会降低。比如在彩色胶卷处理方面，3/5英寸照片的成本从1970年的5天50cent降至1984年的1天20cent。同样的规律适用于食品处理方面。由于奥林匹克食品即将庆祝它的25岁生日，我们可以指望我们长期的经验会使我们达到最小的成本和最大的利润。

　　1. false analogy: The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry.

　　2. causal oversimplification: Other factors that may contribute t to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out.

　　3. gratuitous assumption: The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years.

　　1. 错误类比：color film processing和processing of food不相同。problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation都只影响food 不影响film.

　　2. 同时，忽略他因。是否是因为组织更有效率才使COST下降的?很可能是material necessary for the process下降了价钱。所以，两者更不同。

　　3. gratuitous assumption：二十五年不代表学到了很多。很可能什么都没学到，或者技术已经out of date.

　　Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the authors rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.

　　First, the authors forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods long experience has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.

　　Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable 不可抗拒的obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.

　　As it stands the authors argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate证实 the authors view.

　　2. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee Company.

　　When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all employees.

　　下面摘自APogee公司的商务部门的备忘录：

　　当Apogee将它所有的业务部门集中在一处时，它将有比现在更多的利润。因此，Apogee应该关闭它的驻外办公室并从单一场所管理它的所有部门。这样的话，集中会通过削减成本提高利润，并帮助公司更好地对所有员工进行监督。

　　1. causal oversimplification: It is imprudent to conclude that the establishment of the field offices is the only reason explaining the decline of the profit.

　　2. all things are equal: The success of the centralization of the past does not guarantee the applicability in the future.

　　3. either-or-or choice: The author assumes that the centralization and the establishment of field offices are mutually exclusive alternatives, there is no middle ground between they two. In fact, we can have the field offices under centralized control.

　　In this argument the author concludes that the Apogee Company should close down field offices and conduct all its operations from a single, centralized location because the company had been more profitable in the past when all its operations were in one location. For a couple of reasons, this argument is not very convincing.

　　First, the author assumes that centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and streamlining supervision of employees. This assumption is never supported with any data or projections. Moreover, the assumption fails to take into account cost increases and inefficiency that could result from centralization. For instance, company representatives would have to travel to do business in areas formerly served by a field office, creating travel costs and loss of critical time. In short, this assumption must be supported with a thorough cost-benefit analysis of centralization versus other possible cost-cutting and/or profit-enhancing strategies.

　　Second, the only reason offered by the author is the claim that Apogee was more profitable when it had operated from a single, centralized location. But is centralization the only difference relevant to greater past profitability? It is entirely possible that management has become lax regarding any number of factors that can affect the bottom line such as inferior products, careless product pricing, inefficient production, poor employee expense account monitoring, ineffective advertising, sloppy 肥大的buying policies and other wasteful spending. Unless the author can rule out other factors relevant to diminishing profits, this argument commits the fallacy of assuming that just because one event follows another , the second event has been caused by the first.

　　In conclusion, this is a weak argument. To strengthen the conclusion that Apogee should close field offices and centralize, this author must provide a thorough cost-benefit analysis of available alternatives and rule out factors other than decentralization that might be affecting current profits negatively.

　　6. The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life.

　　Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helioss unemployment rate was lower than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has provided more than its share of the regions manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies.

　　一份面向地方生活的杂志上的一篇文章：

　　企业在寻找新的商机或位置时应该去Helios城。甚至在最近的衰退中，Helios的失业率也比地区平均水平低，它是地区的工业中心，历史上它提供的比它在地区制造业工作中分享的份额中更多。而且，Helios正试图通过吸引研究和发展革新技术的公司来扩张它的经济基础。

　　1. 作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。

　　2. 作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。

　　1， 因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。

　　2， H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。

　　3， 错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。

　　In this argument corporations are urged to consider the city of Helios when seeking a new location or new business opportunities. To support this recommendation, the author points out that Helios is the industrial center of the region, providing most of the regions manufacturing jobs and enjoying a lower-than-average unemployment rate. Moreover, it is argued, efforts are currently underway to expand the economic base of the city by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative technologies. This argument is problematic for two reasons.

　　To begin with, it is questionable whether the available labor pool in Helios could support all types of corporations. Given that Helios has attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing companies in the past, it is unlikely that the local pool of prospective employees would be suitable for corporations of other types. For example, the needs of research and development companies would not be met by a labor force trained in manufacturing skills. For this reason, its unlikely that Helios will be successful in its attempt to attract companies that focus or research and development of innovative technologies.

　　Another problem with the available work force is its size. Due to the lower than average unemployment rate in Helios, corporations that require large numbers of workers would not find Helios attractive. The fact that few persons are out of work suggests that new corporations will have to either attract new workers to Helios or pay the existing workers higher wages in order to lure them away from their current jobs. Neither of these alternatives seems enticing to companies seeking to relocate.

　　In conclusion, the author has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons for selecting Helios as the site for a company wishing to relocate. In fact, the reasons offered function better as reasons for not relocating to Helios. Nor has the author provided compelling reasons for companies seeking new business opportunities to choose Helios.

　　8. The following appeared in the editorial section of a corporate newsletter.

　　The common notion that workers are generally apathetic about management issues is false, or at least outdated: a recently published survey indicates that 79 percent of the nearly 1,200 workers who responded to survey questionnaires expressed a high level of interest in the topics of corporate restructuring and redesign of benefits programs.

　　一份社团实事通讯的

　　一般认为工人对管理事务缺乏兴趣的观点是错的，或至少是过时的。最近公布的调查显示回答了问卷的近1200工人中的79%表达了对公司重组，利润目标新设计的高度兴趣。

　　1. survey is doubtful: Detailed information should be given such as the absolute number of workers of that corporation.

　　2. insufficient sample: The corporation is not representative of all the other corporations.

　　3. gratuitous assumption: It is natural that workers are interested in the topics such as corporate structuring and design of benefits programs. This trend can not be cited to support the authors allege.

　　Based upon a survey among workers that indicates a high level of interest in the topics of corporate restructuring and redesign of benefits programs, the author concludes that workers are not apathetic about management issues. Specifically, it is argued that since 79 percent of the 1200 workers who responded to survey expressed interest in these topics, the notion that workers are apathetic about management issues is incorrect. The reasoning in this argument is problematic in several respects.

　　First, the statistics cited in the editorial may be misleading because the total number of workers employed by the corporation is not specified. For example, if the corporation employs 2000 workers, the fact that 79 percent of the nearly 1200 respondents showed interest in these topics provides strong support for the conclusion. On the other hand, if the corporation employs 200,000 workers, the conclusion is much weaker.

　　Another problem with the argument is that the respondents views are not necessarily representative of the views of the work force in general. For example, because the survey has to do with apathy, it makes sense that only less apathetic workers would respond to it, thereby distorting the overall picture of apathy among the work force. Without knowing how the survey was conducted, it is impossible to assess whether or not this is the case.

　　A third problem with the argument is that it makes a hasty generalization about the types of issues workers are interested in. It accords with common sense that workers would be interested in corporate restructuring and redesign of benefits programs, since these issues affect workers very directly. However, it is unfair to assume that workers would be similarly interested in other management issues―ones that do not affect them or affect them less directly.

　　In conclusion, this argument is not convincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author would have to show that the respondents account for a significant and representative portion of all workers. Additionally, the author must provide evidence of workers interest other management topics―not just those that affect workers directly.

　　9. The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.

　　On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.

　　财经杂志的意见栏：

　　一般而言，中年消费者的零售消费额的39%用于专卖店的商品何服务。而在年轻一些的消费者中这一比例仅有25%。由于中年消费者的数量在下一10年中将大幅增长，专卖店可以预期他们的销售额会有大幅增长。进一步，为利用这一趋势，这些店应该开始将一些吸引年轻消费者的商品替换为吸引中年消费者的商品。

　　1. The absolute value of consumption should be given by the author.

　　2. all things are equal

　　3. Whether the increase of profit gained by attracting more middle-aged consumers will be offset

　　4. the reduction of profit because of the loss of young consumers.

　　Sample essay 1:

　　The argument that department retail sales will increase in the next 10 years and thus department stores should begin to replace products to attract middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically convincing, since it omits certain crucial assumptions

　　First of all, the argument ignores the absolute amount of retail expenditure of middle-aged and younger consumers devoted to department store products and services. Although younger consumers spend a smaller percentage of their retail expenditure to department store products than do the middle-aged consumers, they might actually spend more in terms of the absolute amount.

　　Even if middle-aged consumers are spending more than younger ones in department stores, the argument ignores the possibility that the trend may change within the next decade. Younger consumers might prefer to shop in department stores than in other types of stores, and middle-aged consumers might turn to other types of stores, too. This will lead to a higher expenditure of younger consumers in department stores than that of middle-aged consumers.

　　Besides, the argument never addresses the population difference between middle-aged consumers and younger ones. Suppose there are more younger consumers than the middle-aged ones now, the total population base of younger consumers will be bigger than that of the middle-aged ones if both of them grow at the same rate in the next decade. Thus there will be a bigger younger consumer base.

　　Based on the reasons I listed above, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion does little to prove the conclusion since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been more convincing by making it clear that the absolute population of middle-aged consumers are higher than that of the younger consumers and the number will continue to grow in the next decade, and that the middle-aged consumers will continue to spend more money in department stores than younger consumers do in the next decade.

　　Sample essay 2:

　　The argument that retailers should replace some of the products intended to attract the younger consumers with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.

　　First, the argument omits the assumption that the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers are the same. If the business volume of the middle-aged consumers 39% is smaller than that of the younger consumers 25%, the retail sales will not increase during the next decade.

　　Second, even if the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers were the same in the last decade, the increase of the middle-aged people in the next decade is not the same as the increase of the retail expenditure, for the retail trade depends more on such factors as the economic circumstances, peoples consuming desire.

　　Finally, the argument never assumes the increase of the younger consumers within the next decade. If the younger consumers increase at the same rate and spend the same amount of money on the goods and services of department stores, the retailers should never ignore them.

　　Thus the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the growing number of middle-aged people within the next decade does little to prove the conclusion―that department stores should begin to replace some of their products to attract the middle-aged consumers since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the business volumes of both types of consumers are the same and comparable, that the increase of a certain type of consumers are correlated with the increase of the retail sales, and that the growth rate of the younger consumers are the same as that of the middle-aged consumers.

　　Sample essay 3:

　　Based on an expected increase in the number of middle-aged people during the next decade, the author predicts that retail sales at department stores will increase significantly over the next ten years. To bolster this prediction, the author cites statistics showing that middle-aged people devote a much higher percentage of their retail expenditure to department-store services and products than younger consumers do. Since the number of middle-aged consumers is on the rise and since they spend more than younger people on department-store goods and services, the author further recommends that department stores begin to adjust their inventories to capitalize on this trend. Specifically, it is recommended that department stores increase their inventory of products aimed at middle-aged consumers and decrease their inventory of products aimed at younger consumers. This argument is problematic for two reasons.

　　First, an increase in the number of middle-aged people does not necessarily portend an overall increase in department-store sales. It does so only on the assumption that other population groups will remain relatively constant. For example, if the expected increase in the number of middle-aged people is offset by an equally significant decrease in the number of younger people, there will be little or no net gain in sales.

　　Second, in recommending that department stores replace products intended to attract younger consumers with products more suitable to middle-aged consumers, the author assumes that the number of younger consumers will not also increase. Since a sizable increase in the population of younger consumers could conceivably offset the difference in the retail expenditure patterns of younger and middle-aged consumers, it would be unwise to make the recommended inventory adjustment lacking evidence to support this assumption.

　　In conclusion, this argument is unacceptable. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that the population of younger consumers will remain relatively constant over the next decade.

　　10. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.

　　This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs. The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently werent so concerned about their education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the states college students than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the protesting students.

　　地方性报纸的

　　过去的冬天里，200名学生从Waymarsh州立大学前往州府大楼抗议对各项州立大学项目基金进行削减的计划。另外12000名Waymarsh学生显然对他们的教育不太关心：他们或是留在学校里，或离开过寒假。由于不抗议的人群更大，他们比抗议人群更有资格代表州立大学学生。所以州立法会不必理会抗议者。

　　1. 代表学生的形成方式不知道。如果是随机产生的，那么去反对的学生完全可以代表学生总体。

　　2. 没去的学生不一定不关心。他们可能有更重要的事情要忙。例如要赶回家过圣诞节。有已经订好的寒假计划等等。

　　3. 此外，没去的学生之所以没有去很可能是因为他们觉得那些代表足可以代表他们表达心声。

　　1， 没有投诉不代表没有不满。很可能学生以其他的方式发泄不满意，比如absent the class, leave the school earlier, 等等。One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that。。。很可能他们已经知道了学生去protest了，所以才没有去。

　　2， 200名学生不具有代表性的说法不对。很可能是被推选出来的elected to represent the entire students。缺乏根据的论证，错。

　　The conclusion in this argument is that the state legislature need not consider the views of protesting students. To support this conclusion, the author points out that only 200 of the 12,000 students traveled to the state capitol to voice their concerns about proposed cuts in college programs. Since the remaining students did not take part in this protest, the author concludes they are not interested in this issue. The reasoning in this argument is flawed for two reasons.

　　First, the author assumes that because only one-tenth of the students took part in the protest, these students views are unrepresentative of the entire student body. This assumption is unwarranted. If it turns out, for example, that the protesting students were randomly selected from the entire student body, their views would reflect the views of the entire college. Without information regarding the way in which the protesting students were selected, it is presumptuous to conclude that their opinions fail to reflect the opinions of their colleagues.

　　Second, the author cites the fact that the remaining 12,000 students stayed on campus or left for winter break as evidence that they are not concerned about their education. One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that the students who did not participate did so with the knowledge that their concerns would be expressed by the protesting students. In any case, the author has failed to demonstrate a logical connection between the students alleged lack of concern and the fact that they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Without this connection, the conclusion reached by the author that the remaining 12,000 students are not concerned about their education is unacceptable.

　　As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the author would have to demonstrate that the protesting students had some characteristic in common that biases their views, thereby nullifying their protest as representative of the entire college.

　　11. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.

　　In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.

　　地方性报纸的

　　在Montoya当San Perdito市长的头4年里，人口下降而失业率上升。每当一个新企业开业，就有两个旧的关门。而在Montoya之前Uarro当市长的4年里，失业率下降人口增长。很明显，San Perdito的居民重新选举Varro而非Montoya会得到更好的服务。

　　1. It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷时期 is part of a picture of ... mayor

　　2. set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varros own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population .

　　3. availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass

　　4. cast ones vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal

　　1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country, 不能说两个倒闭一个开就是坏事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企业。也是好事。

　　2， 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因为在P在任期间，全国的经济不景气，造成了事业更增加。而不是两个市长的不同。假定过去和现在一样，也是个错误!recession depression downturn低迷时期

　　The recommendation endorsed in this argument is that residents of San Perdito vote current mayor Montoya out of office, and re-elect former mayor Varro. The reasons cited are that during Montoyas four years in office the population has decreased while unemployment has increased, whereas during Varros term unemployment declined while the population grew. This argument involves the sort of gross oversimplification and emotional appeal typical of political rhetoric; for this reason it is unconvincing.

　　First of all, the author assumes that the Montoya administration caused the unemployment in San Perdito as well as its population loss. The line of reasoning is that because Montoya was elected before the rise in unemployment and the decline in population, the former event caused the latter. But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps a statewide or nationwide recession is the cause of these events. Or perhaps the current economic downturn is part of a larger picture of economic cycles and trends, and has nothing to do with who happens to be mayor. Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varros own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population the city is now experiencing under Montoya.

　　Secondly, job availability and the economic health of ones community are issues that affect people emotionally. The argument at hand might have been intentionally oversimplified for the specific purpose of angering citizens of San Perdito, and thereby turning them against the incumbent mayor. Arguments that bypass relevant, complex reasoning in favor of stirring up emotions do nothing to establish their conclusions; they are also unfair to the parties involved.

　　In conclusion, I would not cast my vote for Varro on the basis of this weak argument. The author must provide support for the assumption that Mayor Montoya has caused San Perditos poor economy. Moreover, such support would have to involve examining and eliminating other possible causal factors. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.

　　12. The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area.

　　Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days. Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two-thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative. Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store.

　　Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

　　在把Gazette日报的广告版向Marston地区的蔬菜商销售的计划：

　　在Gazette日报宣传特价菜会帮助你提高销售额。考虑上月的一个研究的结果。Marston中心区的一个商店的30种特价菜在Gazette做了4天广告。每当有特价菜被卖出，职员就问顾客是否读过广告。200顾客中的2/3回答是肯定的。而且，持肯定回答的顾客中有超过一半的人在店里的消费超过100美元。

　　读了广告之后买了特价菜，并不意味着是因为看了广告才去买特价菜。可以有很多因素促使消费者买特价菜。此外作者是想说可以提高总体销售水平但他的论证实际根本没有涉及这一点。起码要给出没有做广告时候一天销售额和做了广告之后的对比。

　　1， 没有对比没做广告和做广告后sale的对比，只说了消费的人看了广告，并且一半支付了100以上，很可能没有广告的话也一样。

　　2， 没有建立起因果联系，虽然买东西的人看了广告，但是不代表是因为广告而买的。很可能不存在此因果联系。

　　3， 没有排除他因。如过sale上升了，那也有可能是别的原因导致的，而不是因为广告。比如thanks giving，比如商品质量提高，花样更多，比如最近的经济很好等等。

　　The conclusion of this argument is that advertising the reduced price of selected items in the Daily Gazette will result in increased sales overall. To support it, the author cites an informal poll conducted by sales clerks when customers purchased advertised items. Each time one or more of the advertised items was sold, the clerks asked whether the customer had read the ad. It turned out that two-thirds of 200 shoppers questioned said that they had read the ad. In addition, of those who reported reading the ad, more than half spent over $100 in the store. This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.

　　To begin with, the authors line of reasoning is that the advertisement was the cause of the purchase of the sale items. However, while the poll establishes a correlation between reading the ad and purchasing sale items, and also indicates a correlation, though less significantly, between reading the ad and buying non-sale items, it does not establish a general causal relationship between these events. To establish this relationship, other factors that could bring about this result must be considered and eliminated. For example, if the four days during which the poll was conducted preceded Thanksgiving and the advertised items were traditionally associated with this holiday, then the results of the poll would be extremely biased and unreliable.

　　Moreover, the author assumes that the poll indicates that advertising certain sale will cause a general increase in sales. But the poll does not even address the issue of increased overall sales; it informs us mainly that, of the people who purchased sales items, more had read the ad than not. A much clearer indicator of the ads effectiveness would be a comparison of overall sales on days the ad ran with overall sales on otherwise similar days when the ad did not run.

　　In sum, this argument is defective mainly because the poll does not support the conclusion that sales in general will increase when reduced-price products are advertised in the Daily Gazette. To strengthen the argument, the author must, at the very least, provide comparisons of overall sales reports as described above.