GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文二三

　　83. This editorial asserts that West Cambria should not change its highway speed

　　limits because such changes adversely affect driver alertness and are therefore

　　dangerous. To support this claim, the editorial cites statistics indicating that whenever

　　East Cambria changed its speed limits, an average of 3 percent more automobile

　　accidents occurred during the week after the change than during the week preceding it,

　　even when the speed limit was lowered. As it stands, this argument suffers from three

　　critical flaws.

　　First, it is unlikely that the brief one-week periods under comparison are

　　representative of longer time periods. A difference of only 3 percent during one

　　particular week can easily be accounted for by other factors, such as heavy holiday

　　traffic or bad weather, or by problems with reporting or sampling. Had the editorial

　　indicated that several speed-limit changes in East Cambria contributed to the statistic,

　　the argument would be more convincing; but for all we know, the statistic is based on

　　only one such change. In any event, a one-week period is too brief to be representative

　　because it is likely that accidents will occur more frequently immediately following the

　　change, while people adjust to the new limit, than over the longer term when drivers

　　have become accustomed to the change.

　　Secondly, the editorial fails to acknowledge possible differences in the types of

　　accidents occurring before and after the change. It is possible that the accidents during

　　the week before the change all involved fatalities, while those during the week after the

　　change were minor fender-benders. If so, even though 3 percent more accidents

　　occurred after the change, the authors argument that changing the speed limit increases

　　danger for drivers would be seriously weakened.

　　Thirdly, the editorial fails to take into account possible differences between East

　　and West Cambria that are relevant to how drivers react to speed-limit changes. Factors

　　such as the condition of roads, average age and typical driving habits of residents, and

　　weather patterns, would probably affect how well or how quickly drivers adapt to

　　speed-limit changes. Thus, changing speed limits in East Cambria might be more

　　dangerous than changing them in West Cambria.

　　In conclusion, the statistical evidence cited to support the argument is

　　insignificant and probably unrepresentative. To better evaluate the argument, we need to

　　know how many speed-limit changes contributed to the statistic and when the speed-

　　limit changes were made. Finally, to strengthen the argument the author should show

　　that East and West Cambria would be similarly affected by speed-limit changes.