Hurricane Season May Fizzle Further Due to El Nino
1 Hurricane forecasters believe a weather phenomenon called El Nio may make the rest of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season quieter than originally predicted.
2 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines El Nio as a disruption of the ocean and atmospheric system in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
3 When this happens, there can be far-reaching consequences, including droughts in some places and flooding in others. But it can also suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic. The last time an El Nio occurred was 1997.
4 In a prepared statement, Colorado State University forecasters Phil Klotzbach and William Gray in Fort Collins say they see indications that an El Nio might form this fall.
5 The pair has therefore reduced for the second time the number of tropical storms they think will form in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
6 The updated forecast, released September 1, predicts that 13 named tropical storms will form, with winds of at least 39 miles an hour.
7 Of those storms, the forecasters say, five will grow into hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles an hour, and two will become major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 miles an hour.
8 So far six tropical storms have formed since the hurricane season began on June 1. The most recent of these is Florence, which strengthened into a tropical storm this afternoon.
9 Only one storm this season has become a hurricane. Ernesto briefly reached that status during its trek across the Caribbean Sea last month.
10 Ernesto later made landfalls in Haiti, Cuba, Florida, and North Carolina as a tropical storm.
11 The hurricane season ends November 30
Hurricane Season May Fizzle Further Due to El Nino
1 The 2006 season was initially expected to be much more active. Early Colorado State University forecasts predicted as many as 17 tropical storms would form. Those storms were expected to produce nine hurricanes, five of them major hurricanes.
2 Those numbers were revised downward early last month to 15 named storms and seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
3 Those predictions were especially worrisome to residents on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts because of last years explosive hurricane season. The 2005 season set a record, with 28 named storms forming and four very intense hurricanesDennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilmamaking landfall
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