俄罗斯经济出现六年来最大幅度萎缩

Russia’s economy contracted by 4.6 per cent in thesecond quarter compared with the same period in2014, the largest drop in six years, marking thecountry’s first recession since the financial crisis in2009.

今年第二季度，俄罗斯经济同比萎缩4.6%，萎缩幅度为六年来最大，标志着该国自2009年金融危机以来首次陷入衰退。

The Federal Statistics Office did not offer any detailswith its first estimate, but analysts said thepreliminary figure was likely to be revised downwardas sectoral statistics — which includes retail sales, industrial production and household incomes— pointed to an even steeper drop in real terms.

俄罗斯联邦统计局(Federal Statistics Office)未就其首个估计值提供任何细节。但分析师表示，这一初值很可能会被向下修正，原因是部门统计数据(包括零售总额、工业产出和家庭收入)显示，俄经济的实际萎缩幅度比这个数字还要大。

The 4.6 per cent contraction was slightly worse than analysts’ consensus estimate.Economists warned that the renewed slide in oil prices, which has pushed the rouble lower,would make a quick recovery even more unlikely.

4.6%的萎缩幅度比分析师的一致估计要略糟一些。经济学家曾警告说，油价的再次下跌将进一步降低俄经济短期内复苏的可能性。油价的下跌已导致卢布出现贬值。

The figure comes after the first quarter of this year when the economy contracted by arelatively mild 2.2 per cent. Until June, the Russian government had been assuring the publicthat the worst of the current crisis was over as the rouble stabilised after undergoing a severedepreciation at the end of last year.

今年第一季度，俄经济也出现了萎缩，萎缩幅度相对适中，为2.2%。直到今年6月，俄政府还在向公众保证，由于卢布汇率趋于稳定(卢布曾在去年底遭遇严重贬值)，目前这轮危机的最严重时期已经结束。

But the first drop in real incomes during president Vladimir Putin’s 15 years in power, whichcame about in December 2014, has proved a profound obstacle to overcome.

但事实证明，俄经济去年12月出现的实际收入下滑，可不是那么容易克服的一个困难。这次实际收入下滑是俄总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin) 15年掌权期间的首次。

According to figures published last month, the slide in consumer spending deepened in thesecond quarter with retail sales falling by 9.4 per cent in June. Growth in the industrial sector,which had been flat in the first three months of the year, also dropped by almost 5 per cent inthe second quarter.

上月发布的数据显示，今年第二季度俄消费者支出下滑幅度加大，6月份俄零售总额减少9.4%。今年第一季度保持不变的工业产出，在第二季度也下滑了近5%。

“With oil prices having fallen further over the past few months it remains too soon to speakabout a recovery, said Liza Ermolenko, an analyst with Capital Economics.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)分析师丽莎叶尔莫连科(Liza Ermolenko)表示：“考虑到过去几个月油价进一步下跌，现在谈复苏还为时过早。

Economic growth already slowed to a crawl last year due to a long-running investment dearth.The blow dealt by the oil price drop was worsened by western sanctions imposed over Russia’srole in the Ukraine conflict, which blocks many Russian companies and banks from borrowingabroad.

由于缺乏长期投资，俄经济增速已在去年放缓至极低水平。除了油价暴跌造成的打击，西方因俄在乌克兰冲突中扮演的角色而对俄实施的制裁，也令俄经济雪上加霜。西方的制裁导致俄许多企业和银行无法从境外获得贷款。

Fears that this squeeze would trigger a broader systemic crisis receded when the roublestabilised around 50 to the US dollar this spring after a steep fall. It has since depreciated to 64to the US dollar — raising fresh concerns.

卢布兑美元汇率急剧下跌后于今年春天企稳在1美元兑50卢布左右，这使得人们逐渐打消了这波压力将引发更大范围系统性危机的担忧。但自那以来，卢布汇率已跌至1美元兑64卢布，从而引发了新的担忧。

“This is by far the most severe crisis Russia has experienced, even if you compare it to 1998and 2008, and we have not seen the worst yet, said Irene Shvakman, director at McKinsey inMoscow. “The banking sector may turn out to be the weak link.

麦肯锡(McKinsey)驻莫斯科董事伊列涅什瓦克曼(Irene Shvakman)表示：“这无疑是俄经历过的最严重的危机，即使与1998年和2008年比也是如此，而且我们还没有看到这轮危机的最严重阶段。银行业部门或许最终将是薄弱那一环。

Since last summer, the Russian government had promoted import substitution, hoping thatthe weak rouble would make it competitive again to manufacture goods which Russia haslargely imported since the collapse of the Soviet Union. But analysts said the contraction inindustrial production showed that any such positive effect had been shortlived.

自去年夏天起，俄政府就在推动进口替代，寄望于疲软的卢布能让俄罗斯的制造业产品重获竞争力。自苏联解体以来，俄所用的制造业产品基本靠进口。不过，分析师表示，工业产出的萎缩证明，此举带来的任何积极影响都是短命的。