无需对中国债务危机过度悲观

Much of the negativity about world growthprospects at the moment seems to stem from theabsence of a credit boom in any major market andworries over the consequences of higher US interestrates for the first time since 2006.

目前，许多人对全球增长前景感到悲观，这似乎是因为主要市场缺乏信贷热潮、以及对美国自2006年来首次加息的后果感到担忧。

The lack of a credit boom means that growth ismore subdued than it was in the run-up to theglobal financial crisis.

缺乏信贷热潮意味着，与此次全球金融危机前夕相比，如今的经济增长更为低迷。

In particular, there are fears about China’s growth prospects, given the recent bad newsconcerning weak credit demand, high real interest rates and tight liquidity. However, we seethree reasons for at least some optimism.

鉴于最近中国出现了信贷需求疲弱、实际利率高企以及流动性紧张的坏消息，中国经济的增长前景尤其令人担心。然而，我们有三个理由对中国经济至少保持一些乐观态度。

First, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio stabilised as of mid-2014, albeit at a relatively high 251 percent of GDP.

首先，截止2014年中期，中国债务与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率企稳，虽然251%的比率仍相对较高。

While China’s dramatic debt increases of the past five years grabbed headlines worldwide, asthe ratio leapt nearly 100 percentage points from 155 per cent of GDP, the fact the ratio hasbegun to stabilise has not yet received much attention.

尽管过去5年中国债务激增成为世界各地的资讯头条(债务比率从155%飙升近100个百分点)，但很多人没有注意到这一比率实际上已经开始企稳。

This is an important milestone in China’s debt turnaround, following years of excess. Over thepast five years, total credit growth in China was on average 8 percentage points faster thannominal GDP growth – way beyond the point at which credit growth becomes inefficient forany economy.

在经历了多年的债务比率过高之后，这是中国债务状况好转的一个重要里程碑。过去5年，中国信贷总额增速较名义GDP增速平均高出8个百分点，远远超出信贷增长达到某一点就对任何经济都无效的水平。

However, since mid-2014 China’s credit has been growing in line with GDP. Essentially, thismeans China is now getting more ‘bang for its buck’ for every new unit of borrowing. Also,attitudes to debt have changed, with loan officers in China much more averse now to taking therisk of a loan going bad than previously.

然而，自2014年中期以来，中国的信贷一直与GDP同步增长。重要的是，这意味着中国现在的每一笔借款正变得更加“物有所值。此外，人们对债务的态度也发生了变化，中国的信贷官员现在承担坏账风险的意愿远不如以前。

While this doesn’t mean that China’s leverage risks have been resolved, as the excessive debtaccumulation of prior years still needs to be dealt with, it does mean that debt challenges areno longer escalating, which is good news.

这并不意味着中国的杠杆风险得到了化解，之前几年累积的过多债务仍需解决，但它确实意味着，债务挑战不再加大，这是个好消息。

Resuming past excesses is not an option. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is still relatively highcompared with other economies at a similar stage of development, so debt cannot be used toboost growth significantly in the near future without risking even more solvency issues later.

恢复过去那种过度举债的做法并不是办法。与处于类似发展阶段的其他经济体相比，中国债务与GDP的比率仍相对较高，因此近期中国不可能通过大幅举债来促进经济增长，否则以后就会面临更多的偿付问题风险。

The official non-performing loan ratio is set to keep rising through 2015 and beyond. Mostlikely not all of the bad debt will be recognised immediately, which comes with both benefits andpotential costs.

在整个2015年以及之后的一段时期内，官方不良贷款比率将会继续上升。最有可能的情况是，中国不会立即确认所有坏账，这既有好处也会带来潜在的成本。

On the upside, we are unlikely to see a sudden jump in China’s non-performing loan ratio,which could have led to a possible market panic.

从好的方面来说，我们不太可能看到中国的不良贷款比率突然飙升——不良贷款比率飙升可能会让市场恐慌。

On the downside, those unrecognised bad loans may mean that interest costs are turned intoprinciple and count towards new credit growth. Unfortunately, by definition this part ofcredit growth is not going to generate new GDP.

从不好的角度来看，这些尚未被确认的坏账可能意味着，利息成本将转变为本金并计入新增贷款。遗憾的是，按照定义，这部分新增贷款不会创造新的GDP。

We will need to watch carefully whether this ‘evergreening’ of bad loans becomes too large ashare of new credit growth. Importantly, this does not appear to be the case so far.

我们需要认真观察这种“常青坏账占新增贷款的比例是否过高。重要的是，目前这种比例似乎还不是太高。

The second reason to be a bit more upbeat about China is the sign of positive sentimentamong property developers. Results of our recent property market survey of 30 companiesin five major cities around China – which we have been running twice a year since 2010 –indicate that the industry will be in better shape by the second half of 2015, which bodes wellfor China’s growth.

对中国多一些乐观的第二个原因是，有迹象表明，房地产开发商信心回升。我们最近针对中国5个大城市的30家房地产公司的市场调查显示，到2015年下半年，房地产业的低迷状况将有所改善，这对中国增长是个好兆头。自2010年起，我们每年进行两次这种调查。

Developers believe the excessive amount of inventory in lower-tier cities will be workedthrough by the second half of 2015. They also anticipate better appetite for land investmentamong their peers before the end of this year. This is good news, given the drag on GDPgrowth from the sector recently.

开发商认为，二三线城市的过多库存将在2015年下半年得到消化。它们还预测，在今年底之前房地产公司的土地投资兴趣将上升。鉴于房地产行业最近对GDP增长的拖累，这是个好消息。

Finally, our SME survey of over 600 companies across China showed a slight improvement insentiment in January from a low in December.

最后，我们对中国600多家中小企业的调查显示，1月的信心指数较12月低点略有上升。

The results indicate that this optimism is being supported by broad-based policy easing inChina. And, as we expect to see more monetary easing in the form of at least two morereserve requirement ratio cuts and a further lowering of policy rates, business confidencecould continue to improve.

报告显示，这种乐观情绪正受到中国广泛宽松政策的支持。我们预计将看到更多的货币宽松政策，包括至少还有两次下调存款准备金率以及进一步下调政策利率，因此企业信心可能会继续改善。

While we all should be getting used to China’s ‘new normal’ of slower growth, we should not beworried about the slowdown deepening even further in 2015 and 2016.

我们都应适应中国经济增长放缓的“新常态，但我们不应对2015年和2016年经济进一步放缓感到担忧。

There are many reasons to be less bearish on China than the present consensus, and the factthat there is no unsustainable credit booming taking off again in China, or anywhere else in theworld’s major economies, should be a source of relief.

与目前人们达成的共识相比，我们有很多理由不用对中国感到那么悲观，中国或者全球其他大型经济体没有再出现不可持续的贷款热潮，我们应对此感到欣慰。

Growth of 7 per cent annually means that GDP doubles every 10 years – a very respectablerate for any economy at China’s present stage of development. While by no means guaranteed,we are also waiting for potential growth-boosting measures over the longer term fromstructural reform of rural land, the ‘hukou’ system and the state owned enterprise sector.

7%的年增速意味着GDP将每10年翻一番，对于任何一个处在中国当前这种发展阶段的经济体而言，这都是相当可观的。我们仍在期待政府在更长时期内推出农村土地、户口制度以及国有企业等结构性改革的潜在促增长措施，尽管这绝非板上钉钉的事情。

In the meantime, expect financial reforms from China in 2015 to help shift its allocation ofcapital even more towards being determined by market forces – making growth moresustainable.

同时，预计中国将在2015年开展金融改革，这将有助于让资金配置更多的转向由市场力量决定，从而让增长变得更可持续。

David Mann is chief economist, Asia, at Standard Chartered Bank.

本文作者是渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)亚洲首席经济学家