中国需求下降重创美国煤炭业

Slowing growth in China is taking a brutal toll on Appalachian coal mines and coal towns.

中国经济增速放缓沉重打击了美国阿巴拉契亚地区的煤矿和煤城。

Appalachia has one of the world's richest deposits of high-grade coal used to make steel. Thanks to Chinese demand, the price for premium metallurgical coal, whose low-ash and low-sulfur content makes it ideal for steelmaking, hit a record $330 a metric ton in early 2011.

阿巴拉契亚地区炼钢用高等级煤炭的储藏量位居世界前列。由于中国的需求，优质焦煤价格在2011年年初创下了每吨330美元的纪录。焦煤烟尘少、硫含量低，是炼钢的理想之眩

Now, the Chinese economy is slowing and so is its steel industry. That has sent the price of coal used for steelmaking down nearly 50% to $170 a metric ton. Those coal producers who counted on Chinese sales are reeling.

现在中国经济在放缓，钢铁行业也在减速，这导致炼钢用煤炭价格跌到每吨170美元，几乎下跌了一半。寄望于中国市场的煤炭生产商受到了沉重的打击。

'When someone had coal to move, China was your big box store,' said Ernie Thrasher, chief executive of XCoal Energy & Resources, a major U.S. marketer of such coal to Asia. This year, 'the switch went off.'

XCoal Energy & Resources是美国向亚洲出口焦煤的重要贸易商，该公司首席执行长思拉舍(Ernie Thrasher)说，当有人有煤炭要卖的时候，中国就是一个大卖场，但今年一切都停顿了下来。

While many have blamed the downturn in the U.S. coal industry on cheap natural gas supplanting coal and tougher environmental regulations, the slide in metallurgical coal demand has been equally devastating. Coal companies were caught flat-footed after ramping up production last year with the expectation that steep prices would cover their rising costs, despite coal's past cyclicality. Instead, demand in China began to falter just as Australian metallurgical coal production─interrupted by floods last year─surged back into the market.

很多人将美国煤炭产业的不景气归咎于廉价的天然气取代了煤炭，以及环保监管越来越严格。然而焦煤需求下滑带来的打击也同样沉重。去年煤炭企业不顾以往本行业的周期性特征，仍指望价格的大幅上涨盖过成本的上升，所以扩大生产。结果中国的需求慢了下来，同时受去年洪灾破坏的澳大利亚焦煤生产迅速恢复供应，让他们措手不及。

In July, Patriot Coal Corp. of St. Louis filed for bankruptcy protection, shortly after it lost a contract for coal bound for an Asian steelmaker. Patriot's stock slid 18% the day after it announced that news, taking other coal stocks down with it. Earlier this month, Patriot said it would temporarily idle metallurgical coal operations at three mining complexes in southern West Virginia and lay off 250 miners, in addition to 1,000 layoffs earlier this year. On top of that, Patriot has said it will need to reduce 'unsustainable' pension and health benefits to 2,000 miners and some 20,000 retirees and surviving spouses.

今年7月，圣路易斯的Patriot Coal Corp.申请破产保护。之前不久，该公司丢掉了一份向亚洲一家钢铁企业供应煤炭的合同。公布消息之后的第二天，Patriot股价下跌18%，拖累煤炭股跟着走低。该公司本月早些时候表示，将暂停西弗吉尼亚州南部三个矿区的焦煤生产，并在今年早些时候裁员1,000人的基础上再裁掉250名矿工。除此以外，Patriot还曾表示将需要削减2,000名矿工、约20,000名退休人员及未亡配偶“不可持续的养老和医疗福利。

China's metallurgical coal imports dropped to 2.6 million metric tons in August, from an average of 4.5 million metric tons per month through July. Now coal mines are closing throughout Appalachia. Earlier this month, Alpha Natural Resources Inc., of Bristol, Va., which derives a large share of its profits from metallurgical coal, said it was cutting 1,200 jobs, or 9.2% of its workforce. Earlier this year, Alpha laid off more than 700 miners and trimmed production at more than 20 mines. Consol Energy Inc. of Pittsburgh, which sells more coal into China than any other U.S. producer, earlier this month idled the nation's biggest metallurgical coal mine, which employs 620 miners. Arch Coal Inc. trimmed its metallurgical coal production estimate by 21% this year.

今年1月至7月，中国平均每月进口焦煤450万吨，8月份降至260万吨。现在整个阿巴拉契亚地区的煤矿纷纷关闭。弗吉尼亚布里斯托尔的Alpha Natural Resources Inc.有很大一部分利润来自焦煤业务。该公司本月早些时候表示将裁员1,200人，相当于员工总数的9.2%。今年早些时候它已经裁掉700多名矿工，并减少了20多座煤矿的产量。皮兹堡的Consol Energy Inc.向中国出口的煤炭比其他任何美国生产商都多。本月早些时候，该公司让雇用矿工620人的全美最大焦煤矿停产。Arch Coal Inc.将自己今年焦煤产量的预期下调了21%。

Miners like Phillip Powell, 38 years old, of Wharton, have been swept up by the collapse. 'A lot of guys that I worked with are scared of losing everything they own,' said Mr. Powell, who was laid off in March from a section foreman job at a Patriot metallurgical coal mine. Mr. Powell said he sees no chance of finding another job that would come anywhere close to paying the $108,000 he earned last year. After 17 years in mining, he plans to go back to college to get certified to teach physical education.

来自西弗吉尼亚州霍顿市(Wharton)的38岁矿工鲍威尔(Phillip Powell)是减产潮的受害者之一。他说，很多跟我一块工作的人都害怕失去自己拥有的一切。鲍威尔原来在Patriot公司的一座焦煤矿当领工，今年3月份被裁。他觉得自己再也找不到一份接近去年10.8万美元收入的工作了。在采矿业干了17年之后，他打算回大学拿一份教体育的文凭。

Appalachian coal industry executives had been counting on metallurgical or 'met' coal─which is sold at a premium to steelmakers─to offset the dwindling market for lower-grade thermal coal used by power plants. The thermal coal market has been weakening because utilities are buying cleaner-burning natural gas instead. Natural-gas prices have plummeted as energy companies used hydraulic fracturing to extract gas from vast shale formations.

过去，阿巴拉契亚地区的煤矿业管理人员依靠焦煤来弥补不断缩小的动力煤市场，动力煤等级较低，用于发电厂发电，而焦煤则可以更高的价格卖给钢铁厂商。由于公用事业公司开始转而购买燃烧起来更清洁的天然气，动力煤市场一直在走软。随着能源公司利用水力压裂法从巨大的页岩层中提取天然气，天然气价格大幅下跌。

In April, natural gas and coal each fueled 32% of the nation's electricity, achieving parity for the first time in the decades that the Energy Information Administration has tracked the data. For decades, coal powered about 50% of the electricity to the nation's businesses and homes.

今年4月，天然气和煤炭发电量各占美国发电总量的32%，在美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)有数据记载的这几十年里首次达到相同占比。此前的几十年，美国企业和家庭用电量的约50%都来自煤炭发电。

Metallurgical coal exports were supposed to fill the gap. Only a year ago Patriot was posting record revenue and operating earnings and embarking on a plan called the 'Met Built-Out' to open new metallurgical mines and hire up to 200 new miners.

焦煤出口原本应该弥补国内需求的疲软。仅一年前，Patriot还录得了创纪录的营收和运营利润，并正在启动一项“焦煤增产计划，以开采新的焦煤煤矿，增聘最多200名矿工。

Other coal companies were buying rivals to strengthen their metallurgical coal operations and reserves. Four publicly traded U.S. coal companies made acquisitions in North America totaling $14 billion in 2011, the largest being Alpha's $7.1 billion purchase of troubled Massey Energy.

其他煤炭公司当时也在收购竞争对手，以便扩大其焦煤业务和储量。2011年，四家美国上市煤企在北美地区进行了规模总计140亿美元的收购，其中最大一桩是阿尔法公司(Alpha)斥资71亿美元收购陷入困境的梅西能源公司(Massey Energy)。

Alpha now has 1.5 billion tons of metallurgical coal reserves, and the ability to export up to 30 million tons a year. It is hoping to weather the weak market by being the low-cost producer of premium met coal. 'While it's a bit soft now, we have a very valuable metallurgical coal franchise, and we're hitching our wagon to it,' said Alpha Chief Executive Kevin Crutchfield.

阿尔法如今有15亿吨焦煤储量，焦煤年出口能力最高可达3,000万吨。该公司希望凭借低成本生产优质焦煤而度过市场疲弱不振的难关。该公司首席执行长克拉奇菲尔德(Kevin Crutchfield)说，尽管眼下市场有些疲软，我们有着非常有价值的焦煤业务，我们正寄希望于此。

The cost to pull a ton of coal out of the ground varies widely from mine to mine based on geologic conditions and the degree of automation. In Appalachia, average mining costs are about $65 to $75 per ton. A ton of thermal coal is currently selling for $52 a ton on the spot market, making it impossible to operate some mines at a profit.

依地质条件和自动化程度不同，各煤矿从地下开采一吨煤的成本相差很大。在阿巴拉契亚地区，平均开采成本约为每吨65美元至75美元。现货市场上动力煤的售价目前为每吨52美元，这就使得一些煤矿的运营不可能盈利。

Before the China steel market took off, metallurgical coal was valued much like thermal coal and was often sold to power plants where it was burned like lower-grade coals. 'It was like using an expensive bottle of red wine to make spaghetti sauce,' said Paul Forward, an analyst with Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.

在中国钢铁市场升温之前，焦煤和动力煤一样不受重视，焦煤常常被销售给发电厂，和等级更低的煤一样烧来发电。经纪公司Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.的分析师福沃德(Paul Forward)说，就像是用一瓶非常昂贵的红酒做意大利面面酱一样。

That changed with China's industrial boom. Up until 2004, the price for metallurgical coal stayed below $40 a ton in the U.S. Prices hit an all time record of $330 a metric ton in the second quarter of 2011 after flooding in Queensland, Australia, disrupted coal supplies headed for China.

随着中国工业的快速发展，情况发生了改变。2004年之前，美国焦煤价格一直在每吨40美元以下。2011年二季度，澳大利亚昆士兰州发生洪灾，输往中国的煤炭供应中断后，焦煤价格达到每吨330美元，创历史新高。

China couldn't seem to get enough metallurgical coal to feed its steelmaking industry. In 2010, U.S. met coal exports to China grew nearly six-fold, and grew by the same rate in 2010, linking Appalachia more closely to the global steel trade.

为给钢铁制造业提供动力，中国对焦煤似乎永不厌足。2010年，美国对中国焦煤出口增长了近五倍，2010年增速与上年相仿，将阿巴拉契亚地区与全球钢铁贸易更紧密地联系在一起。

Now the China spigot is closing. The Chinese steel industry─which consumes half of all metallurgical coal mined each year─faces the possibility it could operate at a loss in 2012 for the first time as a result of overcapacity and weak steel prices, according to the China Iron & Steel Association. That would mean tougher times in West Virginia, where rail, barge, trucking and other jobs depend on coal.

如今中国的需求开始下滑。据中国钢铁工业协会说，由于产能过剩和钢材价格低迷，2012年中国钢铁业可能将首次面临亏损的局面。中国钢铁行业的焦煤消费量占每年全球总消费量的一半。这将意味着西弗吉尼亚州日子会更加困难，在那里，铁路、货船、货车运输和其他工作岗位都要依靠煤炭行业。