Gazprom困境危及普京统治

Gazprom, the natural gas company controlled by the Russian state, is in crisis. It is likely to fall victim to the shale gas revolution that is under way across the US. The shale gas revolution will probably have telling consequences for Russian state capitalism and President Vladimir Putin’s power.

国家控股的俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)陷入了危机。此次危机可能源于目前全美兴起的页岩气革命。这场革命很可能会对俄罗斯的国家资本主义制度和总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)的统治造成严重影响。

This crisis erupted suddenly. With its surge in shale gas production the US has become self-sufficient in natural gas. It has overtaken Russia as the biggest natural gas producer. Crucially, US natural gas is cheap. Domestic US natural gas prices are only a quarter of Gazprom’s oil-linked eastern European prices. Such large price differentials cannot possibly last for long.

这是一场突如其来的危机。由于页岩气产量激增，美国在天然气方面已实现了自给自足。如今它已取代俄罗斯，成为全球最大的天然气生产国。关键是，美国天然气价格很便宜。美国国内天然气价格只有Gazprom向东欧出口天然气价格的四分之一，后者价格与油价相挂钩。如此悬殊的价格差不可能持续太久。

Many countries had prepared to produce liquefied natural gas for export to the US. Now these large volumes of LNG are being diverted to Europe, where spot prices have fallen to half of Gazprom’s prices. In Germany, Gazprom has been forced to accept large price cuts, but it insists on maintaining high contracted prices in eastern Europe, although oil and gas prices have delinked on the market.

许多国家曾准备生产液化天然气(LNG)，然后出口至美国。如今，它们正把大量的液化天然气转向欧洲出口，那里的现货价已降至Gazprom价格的一半。Gazprom在德国被迫大幅降价，但在东欧国家仍坚持收取很高的合同价格，尽管市场上的石油价格与天然气价格已然脱钩。

A second big blow to Gazprom came on September 4 when the European Commission opened formal proceedings against the company for anti-competitive practices in eight central and eastern European countries. The European Commission is investigating Gazprom for having “divided gas markets by hindering the free flow of gas across member states, “prevented the diversification of supply of gas and “imposed unfair prices on its customers by linking the price of gas to oil prices.

今年9月4日，欧盟委员会(EC)对Gazprom提起正式起诉，指控该公司在8个中东欧国家压制市场竞争。这也对Gazprom造成沉重打击。欧盟委员会正在调查Gazprom是否“阻止天然气在欧盟成员国之间自由流通，从而割裂了天然气市场，是否“阻碍天然气供应多元化，以及是否“把天然气价格与石油价格挂钩，强行向客户收取不公正的价格。

Given that the European Commission won its far less convincing cases against Microsoft and Intel, its victory over Gazprom looks close to assured. As a consequence, Gazprom would have to give up its price policies, perhaps halving European prices, which would devastate its revenues and eliminate its profits.

鉴于欧盟委员会针对微软(Microsoft)和英特尔(Intel)不那么令人信服的起诉都能获胜，此次对Gazprom胜诉看来也应是十拿九稳。如果败诉，Gazprom将不得不放弃现行的价格政策，出口欧洲的价格或许会降低一半，这将大大减少公司收入，吞噬其所有利润。

Curiously, in 2011 Gazprom was formally the most profitable company in the world with purported net profits of $46bn, but these profits were hardly real. Investment analysts opined that no less than $40bn disappeared through inefficiency or corruption. Gazprom’s cash flow was barely positive.

奇怪的是，Gazprom在2011年还是全球名义上最赚钱的公司，据称其净利润达460亿美元，可这些利润并不属实。投资分析师们认为，由于效率低下或者腐败猖獗，高达400亿美元的利润去向不明。Gazprom的现金流勉强维持正值。

In their 2010 booklet Putin and Gazprom, Boris Nemtsov and Vladimir Milov, the opposition politicians, detailed how assets were being stripped from Gazprom through large kickbacks on pipeline construction and cheap sales of financial and media subsidiaries to Putin cronies. Since shareholders have realised that only their dividend yield is material, Gazprom’s market value has plummeted by two-thirds from $365bn in May 2010 to $120bn today.

在2010年出版的宣传册《普京与Gazprom》中，反对派政客鲍里斯·涅姆佐夫(Boris Nemtsov)和弗拉基米尔·米洛夫(Vladimir Milov)详细介绍了Gazprom的资产是如何流失的——原因就在于管道建设中出现大笔回扣，以及旗下金融和媒体附属公司被贱卖给普京的亲信。由于股东们意识到，他们只能得到股息收入，Gazprom的市值从2010年5月的3650亿美元大幅大幅下跌三分之二，至如今的1200亿美元。

For years, many analysts have said that Russia will reform only when the oil price falls because Gazprom seems to be the Kremlin’s main slush fund, which is now being drastically reduced. The Kremlin will have little choice but to forsake its mega-projects. It has already abandoned the mastodon Arctic Shtokman field. The next steps should be to back out of South Stream, the superfluous and exceedingly expensive pipeline project, as well as the planned gigantic sky-rise headquarters in St Petersburg. But that will hardly suffice. This dysfunctional former Soviet gas ministry will have to be cut up into real companies, which need to be privatised.

许多分析师多年来一直表示，由于Gazprom似乎是俄罗斯政府的主要行贿基金，因此俄罗斯只有在油价下跌时才会启动改革。目前Gazprom的实力正急剧萎缩。俄罗斯政府将别无选择，只能让Gazprom放弃那些超大型项目。Gazprom已经放弃庞大的北冰洋什托克曼(Shtokman)气田项目。下一步将是放弃用处不大、造价极为高昂的South Stream天然气管道项目，以及原定在圣彼得堡兴建摩天大楼总部的计划。但仅有这些还远远不够。这个前身是功能失调的原苏联天然气工业部的集团有必要进行私有化，拆分为几家真正的公司。

Gazprom’s demise looks likely. With its demise, Russia’s revenues would dwindle. Mr Putin‘s model of state capitalism would suffer a devastating blow from Gazprom’s fall. If not even Gazprom is viable, which Russian state company is? Such an insight could give market economic reforms new impetus. After all, Russia just privatised $5.2bn of shares in Sberbank, the state savings bank.

Gazprom看起来可能会垮台。如果Gazprom垮台，俄罗斯政府的收入将会缩减。普京的国家资本主义治理模式将由此遭到毁灭性打击。如果连Gazprom都无法生存，俄罗斯还有哪家国有企业能活下去？这种认识可能为俄罗斯实行市场经济改革提供新的动力。毕竟，俄罗斯刚刚私有化了国有储蓄银行——俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行(Sberbank)价值52亿美元的股份。

In his first comments on the European Commission case against Gazprom in Vladivostok on September 9, Mr Putin revealed the level of his incomprehension of market economics. He said the “EU subsidises the economies of eastern European countries. Now it seems that someone in the EU has decided to shift part of the burden, some of the subsidies, to us.

今年9月9日，普京在符拉迪沃斯托克首次就欧盟委员会起诉Gazprom一事发表讲话。普京的话表明，他根本不懂市场经济。他表示，“欧盟为东欧国家的经济发展提供补贴。目前欧盟中有人似乎决定把部分负担，即部分补贴责任，转嫁给我们。

Contrary to the evidence, he said Gazprom’s prices were market-oriented, adding that “we have had certain pricing principles for decades and they are written in long-term contracts. No one ever questioned these principles.

他罔顾事实地表示，Gazprom的价格是以市场为导向的，并补充道，“我们几十年来都坚持特定的定价原则，这些都在长期合同里写得清清楚楚。此前从未有人质疑过这些原则。

Well, the European Commission does question them. The longer Mr Putin denies reality, the deeper Gazprom’s crisis will grow.

可如今，欧盟委员会确实对此提出了疑问。普京越是拒绝承认事实，Gazprom的危机就会越严重。

The writer is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics

本文作者为彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高级研究员