新工业革命带来的机遇

It can be hard for a start-up entrepreneur to get into manufacturing. The capital investment needs are steep, the technical knowledge considerable, and often one must wait to get paid. It was partly for those reasons that I have instead focused on service opportunities that directly serve the consumer, such as the hospitality industry, with low working capital needs. Yet the idea of making tangible products still holds enormous appeal.

一个刚开始创业的企业家要进入制造业可能很难。这一行需要投入大量资本，具备丰富的技术知识，而且收款往往需要一定周期。在一定程度上就是出于这些原因，我才主要关注服务行业中的商机——其特点是直接为消费者提供服务，例如酒店业，并且所需营运资本也较少。然而，制造有形产品的想法仍有着巨大吸引力。

From Richard Arkwright to Henry Ford, the early manufacturers were small enterprises founded by individuals. But over the past century, manufacturing has been increasingly dominated by companies with the necessary financial and technical resources. Globalisation has increased that trend since the 1980s. Yet thanks to new technologies such as 3D printing, there may be a new industrial revolution that will enable small operators to compete with the giants again.

从理查德·阿克赖特(Richard Arkwright)到亨利·福特(Henry Ford)，早期的制造企业都是由个人创建的小企业。但过去100年来，制造业逐渐被具备必要财力和技术资源的企业所主宰。自上世纪80年代以来，全球化加剧了这一趋势。然而，由于3D打印等新技术的出现，一场新工业革命可能正在到来，小型经营者将可重新与大企业展开竞争。

Two new books make this point: first, the Financial Times’s Peter Marsh in his excellent book The New Industrial Revolution; and second, Chris Anderson, of The Long Tail fame, in his new title, Makers . They argue that mass production is giving way to customisation, combined with localism, and the emergence of “micro-multinationals.

两本新书提出了这一观点：首先是英国《金融时报》编辑彼得·马什(Peter Marsh)的精彩著作《新工业革命》(The New Industrial Revolution)；其次是因《长尾理论》(The Long Tail)一书而出名的克里斯·安德森(Chris Anderson)的新书《创客》(Makers)。他们指出，大规模生产正让位于定制生产、本土主义以及“微型跨国公司的兴起。

Digital manufacturing employs computers and a process called stereolithography to make products using layers of either powdered or molten plastic or metal, in what is described as “additive manufacturing. I have seen these devices in action and they are impressive. These machines will steadily fall in price, while increasing in sophistication and availability as demand rises. Personal fabrication in the garden shed of all sorts of objects may be commonplace in a few years’ time.

“数字化制造利用电脑和一种被称为“立体平板印刷的流程，使用多层的材料——粉末状或熔化的塑料或者金属——来制造产品，这被称为“添加制造技术(additive manufacturing)。我看到过这些机器的运转，令人印象深刻。这些机器的价格将会稳步下跌，随着需求的上升，产品复杂程度会更高，应用也会更为广泛。若干年后，在自家花园的棚子里加工制造各种各样的物品可能成为一种常见景象。

There has been a revival in the US of individual craft manufacture. Make magazine and its Maker Faires have helped create a community of entrepreneurs learning and building, whether from a garage or in TechShops, a membership chain of open-access DIY workshops. They offer training and tools and help participants construct anything from a prototype to finished items.

个体技术制造活动已在美国复兴。在《Make》杂志及其举办的Maker Faire聚会推动下，美国已经形成了一个创业者学习与开发的圈子，不管是来自车库还是在TechShop上，TechShop是一种会员制的开放DIY工坊。他们提供培训和工具，并帮助参与者制造从原型到成品的任何东西。

In June I attended Deutsche Bank’s Manufacturing Forum to hear insights about the business of making things. One point became obvious: a manufacturing revival will not solve the west’s problem of unemployment. Modern plants use robots and increasingly few workers and run day and night, 365 days a year. Even Asian electronics powerhouse Flextronics plans to buy more than 1m robots in the coming years. Indeed, many of the manufacturing jobs that have disappeared in the advanced economies have done so thanks to productivity improvements, not offshoring. The jobs that new factories do create will be highly skilled roles. Manufacturers want recruits trained in “Stem subjects – science, technology, engineering and maths – which is why the recent surge in popularity of these “hard subjects is such great news.

今年6月，我参加了德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)举办的制造业论坛，倾听各种有关制造业的真知灼见。有一种公认的看法是：制造业复兴解决不了西方的失业问题。现代工厂使用机器人，而且聘用的员工越来越少，日夜不休、一年365天的运转。甚至连亚洲电子产品巨擘伟创力(Flextronics)都计划在未来几年购置逾100万台机器人。实际上，发达经济体中消失的很多制造业工作岗位都是由于生产率提高所致，而不是流失到了海外。新工厂创造的就业将是那些高技能工作岗位。制造业企业青睐受过STEM——即科学、技术、工程和数学——专业训练的人，一个非常重大的消息就是这些“硬学科最近更加受欢迎。

It became apparent listening to various executives that whether it is Apple iPhones or Rolls-Royce Trent aero engines, the real profit is not made in the basic assembly of goods. The margins are in servicing, brands, design and after-sales.

从各位高管的意见中明显可以得出这样的结论：不管是苹果(Apple)的iPhone还是罗尔斯·罗伊斯(Rolls-Royce)的Trent飞机引擎，真正创造利润的不是组装产品的基础环节，而是服务、品牌、设计和售后。

Manufacturing contributes to an economy in many ways. As Andrew Liveris, chief executive of Dow Chemical, argues in his book Make It In America, it creates more added value pro rata than other activities, and is much more likely to generate exports to help offset trade deficits. Moreover, research and development tends to take place alongside manufacturing centres, which foster clusters of sub-contractors. It is no coincidence that Germany, Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse, has weathered the credit crisis so well compared to other EU nations.

制造业对一国经济的贡献体现在多个方面。正如陶氏化学(Dow Chemical)首席执行官利伟诚(Andrew Liveris)在他的著作《Make It In America》中所辩称的那样，按比例计算，制造业创造的附加值高于其他活动，而且更有可能促进出口，帮助抵消贸易逆差。另外，研发往往在制造业中心周围进行，这促进了分包商的集中。并非巧合的是，与欧盟(EU)其他成员国相比，欧洲制造业大国德国相对顺利的度过了此次信贷危机。

Since the downturn started, many politicians in the developed world have insisted that societies move away from financial capitalism and back towards the real business of making things. If this policy is to succeed, it cannot be the usual formula of enticing global public companies to build multibillion-dollar plants. It must be about education, entrepreneurship and exploiting new equipment on a more bespoke scale. Incremental jobs in manufacturing can come from new, niche entrants using innovations in technology to help make them more of a match for the big incumbents.

自从遭遇经济低迷以来，发达国家的很多政治人士坚称，社会应摈弃金融资本主义，重新走向制造产品的实体活动。这一主张要想成功，不能凭借老一套的模式，即吸引全球上市公司兴建耗资数十亿美元的工厂，重点应是教育、创业精神以及以定制化程度更高的方式开发新设备。制造业的新增就业可能来自新的“利基进入者，他们利用技术创新，帮助其更有能力与现有大型企业一决高下。