FT社评：罗姆尼-瑞安团队选情不乐观

This week, most Americans will for the first time tune in seriously to Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign at his convention in Tampa. Most conservatives will probably like what they see – a pro-family, strong defence and small-government ticket that offers a clear alternative to a second Barack Obama term. Most liberals, however, will probably recoil from the Republican party’s demonisation of a president who took office in exceptionally tough circumstances. Weather permitting, the theatre should be compelling.

本周，多数美国人将第一次怀着严肃的心情观看米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)在坦帕共和党全国代表大会上的总统竞选活动。多数保守人士可能会喜欢他们所看到的：强调家庭、强化国防以及支持小政府的竞选纲领将明显区别于竞选连任的巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)的纲领。然而，多数自由派可能会拒绝接受共和党对一位在异常艰难的局势下上台的总统的妖魔化。如果天气允许的话，这场戏应该是引人入胜的。

More important than the spectacle itself is whether Mr Romney and Paul Ryan can persuade voters they have a credible plan to revive the US economy. Executive competence is the core theme of Mr Romney’s biography. Taking the tough economic decisions is the hallmark of the Romney-Ryan campaign. On the evidence so far, the ticket deserves one and a half cheers. They are right to say 2012 is an “economy, stupid election. But there is too much detail missing from the Romney-Ryan fiscal plan to give it a clean bill of health. Far from it.

比这一盛大场面本身更为重要的是，罗姆尼和保罗·瑞安(Paul Ryan)能否让选民相信，他们拥有一个让美国经济复苏的可信计划。执行能力是罗姆尼传记中的核心主题。做出艰难的经济决策是罗姆尼-瑞安竞选团队的标志。根据现有的证据，这一竞选团队应该会得到一声半的喝彩。他们表示，2012年大选是一场“笨蛋，问题是经济的选举，他们这样说是正确的。但罗姆尼-瑞安的财政计划缺乏太多细节来证明其是可行的。距离这点还远着呢。

First, the plus points. In selecting Mr Ryan as his running mate, Mr Romney has placed fiscal responsibility at the heart of his campaign. Given that Mr Ryan is the only politician of note to have proposed a drastic cutback to Medicare, the largest and most popular item on the federal budget, his selection took courage. Some believe it was also a reckless attempt to restore the edge to a flagging campaign. Either way, the die is cast. A Romney-Ryan administration would take the axe to public spending and taxes. Mr Obama would not. Mr Romney is offering voters a clear choice.

首先，从附加分来看。通过选择瑞安作为竞选搭档，罗姆尼已将财政责任置于其竞选核心。鉴于瑞安是唯一一位提出大幅削减联邦预算中规模最大也最受欢迎的项目——联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)的知名政治人士，罗姆尼的这一选择需要勇气。一些人认为，这也是一种为了让一场日渐落败的竞选重新获得优势的鲁莽尝试。不管怎样，木已成舟。罗姆尼-瑞安政府将会削减公共支出和税收。奥巴马不会。罗姆尼让选民有了清楚的选择。

All the more reason, then, to put flesh on its bones. Mr Romney has pledged to do four things to “restore fiscal sanity. First, he will cap federal spending at 20 per cent of gross domestic product. Second, he will restore the US budget to surplus by the end of his second term (in 2020) and sponsor a balanced-budget amendment. Third, he will spend at least four per cent of GDP annually on defence. And finally, he will reduce everyone’s tax rate by a fifth and abolish the inheritance tax. It is a crisp and radical blueprint. Alas for Mr Romney, it lacks credibility.

那么，罗姆尼就更有理由让自己的计划具有说服力。罗姆尼承诺采取4项措施来“恢复财政健康。首先，他将把联邦支出控制在国内生产总值(GDP)的20%以内。其次，他将让美国的预算在他的第二任期结束（2020年）之前恢复盈余，并发起一项平衡预算修正案。第三，他至少每年会将占GDP 4%的资金花在国防领域。最后，他将把所有人的税率下调五分之一，并取消遗产税。这是一份利落且激进的蓝图。对于罗姆尼而言可惜的是，它缺乏可信性。

According to a consensus of studies, under his plan Mr Romney would be unable both to balance the budget and push through his intended tax cuts. One of them has to give.

根据多项研究达成的共识，根据计划，罗姆尼将无法既平衡预算，又完成预想中的减税。其中一个必须放弃。

History tells us that, as a rule, Republican presidents care more about tax cuts than about deficits. Under Mr Romney’s plan most of the tax cuts would be funded by broadening the base. However, he fails to spell out a single tax expenditure he would eliminate. This is unsurprising given the popularity of, say, the health insurance tax credit, or the mortgage interest subsidy. But it means the numbers just do not tally up.

历史告诉我们，共和党总统一般更关心减税，而非赤字。根据罗姆尼的计划，大部分减税将由扩大税基弥补。然而，他未能提出一项他要取消的税收支出。这一点并不让人意外，因为健康保险税收优惠或抵押贷款利息补贴等措施颇受欢迎。但这意味着，财政将出现资金缺口。

Failing that, evaluations show that Mr Romney would need to cut non-defence discretionary spending by between a half and two-thirds to meet his spending cap. It would end government as we know it. It seems far likelier that he would let the deficit soar.

据估计，如果未能做到这点，罗姆尼需要将非国防可自行支配支出削减一半至三分之二，以满足支出上限的限制。正如我们所知，这将让政府倒台。更为可能的情景是，他将让赤字飙升。

In addition to his fuzzy maths, Mr Romney is backtracking in his tough talk on Medicare. By attacking Mr Obama for having imposed more than $700bn of Medicare cuts, Mr Romney is as guilty of “Mediscare as his opponent.

除了这道算不清的数学题之外，罗姆尼还在有关联邦医保计划的强硬论调上出尔反尔。罗姆尼曾抨击奥巴马将联邦医保计划的规模削减了逾7000亿美元，因此罗姆尼的“医疗恐慌(Mediscare)与他的对手一样深。

Mr Obama’s cuts, which were part of his healthcare law that Mr Romney has vowed to abolish, fall on providers, not retirees. Mr Romney knows this full well. His change of tack threatens to rob America of the straight debate it needs. In keeping with tradition, Americans are being told they can take dessert without first eating their vegetables. Mr Romney owes voters a more honest story than this.

奥巴马削减医保计划是罗姆尼宣称要废除的医疗法的一部分，它针对的是还在工作的人，而非退休人员。罗姆尼完全明白这点。他的改弦更张可能会让美国失去一场亟需的坦诚辩论。在坚持传统的过程中，美国人现在正被告知，他们可以在没有先吃到蔬菜的情况下就享用甜点。罗姆尼欠选民一个比这更诚实的故事。