女士们，先生们！
Ladies and Gentlemen,
在座朋友很关心中国经济形势，我愿做简要介绍。近年来，在世界经济复苏乏力和国内长期积累的深层次矛盾凸显的情况下，中国经济一直在合理区间平稳运行，并且不断推进转型升级，增长速度在主要经济体中位居前列，对世界经济增长的贡献率保持在25%以上。今年上半年，中国经济增长6.7%。在经济总量超过10万亿美元的高基数上取得这样的增速相当不易，现在增长6.7%形成的增量比过去增长两位数时还要多，一年的经济增量超过8000亿美元，相当于一个中等规模国家的经济总量。进入第三季度，中国经济不仅延续了上半年的发展势头，又出现不少积极变化，消费和服务业对经济增长的贡献率稳步提升，一些前期出现疲弱或下滑的重要指标稳定向好。其中，工业增速、企业效益、投资企稳回升，尤其是民间投资止跌回稳，社会预期得到新的改善。总的看，今年以来特别是到了第三季度，中国经济运行好于预期，特别是就业保持基本稳定。今年前9个月城镇新增就业1067万人，保持了过去3年每年新增就业超过1300万人的势头，9月份31个大城市城镇调查失业率低于5%，为近年来的首次。对中国这样一个有着13亿多人口的发展中大国来说，就业是第一位的，我们稳增长主要就是要保就业、从而惠民生。在看到成绩的同时，也要看到，中国经济仍面临下行压力，要保持经济平稳运行，既要保持总需求力度，也要加快推进供给侧结构性改革，着力提高供给体系的质量和效率。现在外界对中国的债务等方面的风险有些议论。中国债务风险总体是可控的，现在看到的问题主要是债务结构不太均衡。政府负债率在世界主要经济体中是比较低的，中央政府负债率只有16%，地方政府负债率虽高于中央政府，但举债日趋规范，债务主要用于搞建设而不是搞福利，大部分是有回报机制的资产性债务。我们面临的杠杆率问题主要是非金融类企业杠杆率较高，这与中国资本市场发展时间短、还不成熟，居民储蓄倾向较强、居民储蓄率达50%以上，以及以银行为主的融资结构等密切相关。而且，中国债务是以内债为主，外债占比小，触发债务风险的可能性也较小。当前，中国货币政策是稳健的，流动性保持合理充裕。商业银行资本充足率和拨备覆盖率比较高，虽然不良资产有所上升，但远低于世界平均水平，而且风险弥补和损失吸收能力较强。下一步，我们将通过发展多层次资本市场、提高直接融资比重、推进企业兼并重组等途径，逐步降低非金融类企业杠杆率，化解风险隐患。针对当前中国房地产市场的一些分化态势，我们将强化地方政府主体责任，因地因城施策，保障居民基本住房需求，采取符合国情和城市特点的有效措施，努力实现住有所居，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。我们有信心、有能力实现今年经济社会发展主要目标，有决心守住不发生系统性、区域性金融风险的底线，并为明年经济继续稳定向好奠定基础。
Many of you follow trends in the Chinese economy closely. Let me give you a briefing about latest developments. Despite the weak recovery of the world economy in recent years and growing impact of deep-seated imbalances within China, the Chinese economy has been operating within a reasonable range, achieving steady growth and continued progress in restructuring and upgrading at the same time. It remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world and contributes over 25 percent to world economic growth. The 6.7 percent growth in the first half of this year is by no means easy, given the size of our 10 trillion-dollar economy. The increment of 6.7 percent growth, over $800 billion a year, is in fact bigger than that generated by double-digit growth in the past, amounting to the economic aggregate of a medium-sized country.
Coming to the third quarter, the Chinese economy is not only continuing with the good momentum seen in the first half of the year, but also showing some positive changes with bigger contribution by consumption and services to the economic growth and improvement of major indicators which were previously weak or declining. Growth rate of industrial output, corporate performance and investment are all looking up. Downturn in private investment, in particular, has been curbed. Expectations have improved.
Overall, the Chinese economy this year, especially in the third quarter, has performed better than what we expected. Employment, in particular, has remained basically stable. Each year in the past three years, more than 13 million new urban jobs were created. In the first nine months of this year, the number stood at 10.67 million, maintaining this rate of job creation. In September, the surveyed urban unemployment rate in 31 big cities fell below 5 percent, the first time in recent years. For China, a big developing country of more than 1.3 billion people, employment is of primary importance. The main purpose of growth, after all, is to ensure job creation and improve people’s well-being.
Having said all this, we should not lose sight of the downward pressure the Chinese economy still faces. To keep the economy stable, we need to not only maintain aggregate demand, but also speed up supply-side structural reform to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system. Now, there is certain talk about risks in China’s debts and the property market. These issues should be viewed objectively and put into perspective. The debt risk in China is controllable overall. The main problem now is unbalanced debt structure. China’s government debt ratio is relatively low among major economies with merely 16 percent for the central government. Though the ratio at the local levels is higher, borrowing by local governments is getting better regulated, and used mainly for development, rather than welfare handouts. Most debts are asset-backed and generate returns. The problem with leverage mainly lies in relatively high leverage ratio in non-financial companies. This is closely related to fledgling and not mature state of China’s capital market, high propensity to save with the savings rate above 50 percent, and a financing structure with banks in a predominant position. China’s debts are mostly internal and the share of external debts is low. Hence, the likelihood of debt risk is also small. Our monetary policy is prudent, ensuring reasonably sufficient liquidity. And the commercial banks have high capital adequacy ratio and provision coverage ratio. Their non-performing assets ratio, despite some increase, is far below the world’s average. They have strong ability of risk compensation and loss absorption. Going forward, we will gradually bring down non-financial corporate leverage ratio and address hidden risks by developing multi-tiered capital markets, raising the share of direct financing and promoting corporate mergers and restructuring.
Talking about the property market, China’s new type of urbanization will be a long process. Given the trend of divergence in the housing market, we will urge local governments to shoulder their responsibilities and adopt city-specific policies to meet people’s basic housing needs and take effective measures that suit national and local conditions, endeavor to provide housing to all in need and ensure steady and sound development of the real estate market. We are confident that we will be able to meet the major economic and social development targets this year, forestall systemic and regional financial risks, and lay a solid foundation for stable development next year.
这些年，中国经济之所以能够顶住内外压力，实现稳中有进、稳中提质，不是靠“大水漫灌”的强刺激，而是依靠改革开放，积极创新宏观调控方式、着力推进供给侧结构性改革、加快新旧发展动能接续转换的结果。我们持续推进简政放权、放管结合、优化服务改革，大力实施创新驱动发展战略，大众创业、万众创新蓬勃兴起。去年以来中国新增市场主体平均每天超过4万户，其中新登记企业1.2万户，今年前8个月达1.5万户。新技术、新产业、新业态加快成长，许多传统产业重焕生机。经济新动能呈现出增量崛起、存量激活、质量提升的态势，市场和社会创造力巨大。中国经济发展潜力、优势、回旋余地广阔，我们完全有能力保持中国经济中高速增长、迈向中高端水平。
Over the past few years, the Chinese economy has withstood internal and external pressures and achieved steady progress and better quality. This is not done by resorting to massive stimulus. Instead, it is because of our commitment to reform and opening up and our efforts to push for innovative macro regulation, supply-side structural reform and faster shift of growth drivers. We have been streamlining administration, delegating power, strengthening regulation, and improving government services. We have been vigorously implementing the innovation-driven development strategy to boost mass entrepreneurship and innovation. Since last year, there have been more than 40,000 new entities entering the market every day, among which 12,000 are newly-registered companies. From January to August this year, the number of newly-registered companies per day reached 15,000. New technologies, new industries and new business models are growing at a faster pace and many traditional industries are coming back to life. New growth drivers are rising, traditional growth drivers are being upgraded, and the quality of growth is improving. All this has shown enormous creativity in the market and the society. Looking ahead, with big potential, solid advantages and broad maneuvering room, the Chinese economy is well prepared to achieve medium-high growth rates and advance to medium-high development levels.
中国过去发展取得的巨大成就，得益于对外开放。中国将坚定不移奉行互利共赢的开放战略，对外开放的大门会越开越大。中国致力培育经济发展新动能、推动经济转型升级，既是自身提高的过程，也是世界的机遇，蕴藏着巨大的投资机会和市场潜力。预计未来5年进口总额将达到8万亿美元，对外投资总额达到7200亿美元，出境旅游超过6亿人次，这必将为包括葡语国家在内的各国企业带来巨大商机。
China’s tremendous development in the past would not have been possible without opening-up. China will remain firmly committed to the win-win strategy of opening-up, and the door will open wider. China is committed to cultivating new drivers of growth and promoting transformation and upgrading of its economy. This is a process of self-improvement and also an opportunity for the world as it represents enormous investment opportunities and market potential. It is expected that in the next five years, China’s total imports will reach $8 trillion, total outbound investment will reach $720 billion and the Chinese will make over 600 million outbound visits. All this will bring huge business opportunities to companies of all countries, including Portuguese-speaking countries.
女士们，先生们！
Ladies and Gentlemen,
葡语中有一句谚语，“人生结交在始终”。中国人也常说，“路遥知马力，日久见人心”。实践已经并将继续证明，中国和葡语国家是可以信赖的知心朋友、可以倚重的合作伙伴。中国愿与葡语国家一道聚力集智，共同划桨开动大船，使友好合作之舟乘风破浪、不断远航！
As a Portuguese saying goes, “true friends are forever” (Os amigos verdadeiros sao para sempre). We Chinese also say that as distance tests a horse’s strength, time reveals a person’s heart. Time has shown and will continue to show that China and Portuguese-speaking countries are good friends and close partners who can trust and count on each other. Let’s pool our strengths and wisdom together, ride the waves and steer forward the ship of amity and cooperation between China and Portuguese-speaking countries.
谢谢大家。
Thank you.