GMAT考试写作指导:Argument范文二二-查字典英语网
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GMAT考试写作指导:Argument范文二二

发布时间:2016-03-02  编辑:查字典英语网小编

  82. In this editorial the author asserts that opinion polls are little better than random

  guesses to predicting outcomes of presidential elections. The authors basis for this

  assertion is that opinion polls measure only the preferences of voters at the time of the

  poll and that many voters change their preferences several time before voting―some

  remaining undecided until the moment they cast their vote. The authors reasoning is

  unconvincing in two critical respects.

  First of alt the predictions based on random guessing are such that the greater the

  number of candidates, the less likely the prediction will be correct. The reason for this is

  obvious: random guessing requires that no outside information be allowed to influence

  the guess. Predictions based on opinion polls, on the other hand, will differ considerably

  from those based on random guesses simply because outside information will influence

  the result. For example, in a four-person race, random guessing would yield the correct

  prediction 25 percent of the time, whereas the percentage of correct predictions based

  on opinion polls would be much higher. The reason for this disparity is simple. Opinion

  polls enable us to narrow the choices. That is, opinion polls serve to reduce the number

  of viable candidates in the voters mind and thereby increase the likelihood that the

  prediction based on them will be correct.

  In addition, while it is true that many voters change their minds several times

  before voting, and that some remain undecided until entering the voting booth, this is

  not true of everyone. Moreover, people who do change their minds frequently or wait

  until the last moment to decide have typically narrowed their choice to a few candidates

  In conclusion, the author is mistaken in believing that random guessing would be

  as reliable as opinion polls in predicting the outcomes of presidential elections.

  

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