106. The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.
Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form ― either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM. People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.
A CD-ROM is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large amounts of data that can be read by a computer.
报纸的图书版的文章：
现在越来越多的书有了电子版，或者放在网上免费获得，或者在光盘上以很低的价格出售。因此文学经典可以得到比以前更广泛的阅读。不能以书店价格购买这些书的人现在可以用很少的钱或者不花钱来阅读他们。类似的，觉得去图书馆或者等待其他人还书不方便的人现在可以通过家里或者工作用的电脑得到他想要的任何名着。这和文学名着接触的增长将从根本上影响公众的阅读品味，塑造比以前更成熟更博学的读者。
1. More accesses to cheaper books do not necessarily guarantee the desire to read classics.
2. the survey is doubtful
3. It is hard to make profit when there are so many E-books available on the net.
In this article the author concludes that literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before. The authors line of reasoning is that the availability of books in electronic form and access of books via the Internet has removed the two major impediments that prevented people from reading literary classics, namely price and convenient access. Since books can be accessed from home or work via computers at little or no cost, the author believes that significant changes in the society will occur. Specifically, the author maintains that access to literary classics will affect the publics taste in reading and will result in a more learned and cultured reading audience. The authors argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
First, the author assumes that price and convenient access are the primary reasons people fail to read literary classics. While this is a tempting assumption, it is not obviously true. For example, other reasons, such as lack of interest in these books or awareness of them on the part of the reading public could equally account for the failure to read them. Consequently, it may turn out that, contrary to the authors expectation, the number of people who read literary classics is unaffected by their increased availability and lower cost.
Second, while it may be the case that access to books at affordable prices has increased as a result of new technology, the author provides no evidence for the assumption that access to literary classics at affordable prices has increased as well. On the face of it, this assumption seems innocuous; however there may be reasons that prevent literary classics from being marketed in the fashion described by the author. For example, the inability to secure the requisite permissions to reproduce these books in electronic form, or the lack of commercial interest in marketing them via the Internet could undermine the authors assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is not convincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence for the assumption that price and accessibility are the main reasons people fail to read literary classics. Additionally, evidence would be required for the assumption that access to literary classics will be increased.
108. The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.
Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：
去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12%。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量和决定于会员费的收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。
1. 忽略他因。
2. 错误类比。
3. 收入和支出
1. causal oversimplification
2. a benefit-cost analysis should be given
3. Whether the proposed recreational facilities are popular among the people of this area is unknown.
Because Take Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent increase in member usage as a result of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new recreational facilities in subsequent years as a means of increasing membership in Take Heart. The authors recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
First, and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in membership. This assumption may hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely to hold true in the case at hand, because it is reasonable to expect that members would visit the fitness center to inspect and try out the new swimming pool. This would account for the increase in usage. However, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will attract new members.
Second, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the increase in member usage. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in the manner required by the authors argument.
Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that Take Heart will be the only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a competitive advantage in the fitness market.
In conclusion, the authors belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase Take Hearts membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool.
110. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.
We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot ― the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cows net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.
Frostbite国家银行的借贷部门的备忘录：
我们不应该批准那个希望开一家KK冰激凌连锁店的特许店的本地团体的借贷请求。Frostbite以其寒冷的冬天而闻名，而冷天气意味着冰激凌的销售不利。比如，虽然Frostbite是个有10000人的镇子，它却只有一家冰激凌店Frigid Cow。尽管缺乏竞争，Frigid Cow的净收入去年冬天下降了10%。
1. Other factors in deciding whether to give loan to a company such as the credit of the company should be considered.
2. Admittedly, the former and prospective performance of the company is also important when the bank have to make decision of whether or not should it give loan to a company. However, the author of the memorandum show no sufficient evidence to support his or her proposal that the bank should not give loan to Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors.
3. The statistics last year does not necessarily denote the future trend.
1. 排除他因，净收入下降的原因是什么?可能是经营不好，草率定价，甚至正因为缺乏竞争导致了这些。
2. 寒冷冬天不等于没有夏天，也不等于夏天短暂。不能说明原因。
In this memorandum the loan department of Frostbite National Bank recommends against approval of a business loan to a local group that wants to open an ice cream parlor. In support of this decision the loan department points out that Frostbite has a reputation for cold winters and sales of ice cream decrease in cold weather. This latter point is buttressed by the fact that Frostbites only ice cream parlor suffered a 10 percent decline in net revenues the previous winter. The loan departments decision is questionable for the following reasons.
To begin with, since it is reasonable to expect a decline in ice cream sales during winter months, it is difficult to assess the relevance of the fact that Frostbite has cold winters to the potential success of the Kool Kone franchise. Common sense suggests that this fact would be significant only if it turned out that Frostbites winter season lasted 9 or 10 months as it does in arctic regions. In that case slow sales could be expected for most of the year and the loan departments opposition to the loan would be readily understandable. If, on the other hand, Frostbites winter season lasts only a few months and the remainder of the year is warm or hot, it is difficult to comprehend the loan departments reasoning.
Next, the loan department assumes that the Frigid Cows decline in net revenue last winter was a result of slow sales occasioned by cold weather. While this is a possible reason for the decline, it is not the only factor that could account for it. For example, other factors such as poor business practices or lack of inventory could be responsible for the Frigid Cows loss of revenue. The loan departments failure to investigate or even consider these and other possible explanations for the Frigid Cows decline in revenue renders their decision highly suspect.
In conclusion, the loan departments decision is ill-founded. To better evaluate the decision, we would need to know more about the length and severity of Frostbites winter season. Moreover, evidence would have to be provided to support the assumption that the Frigid Cows loss of revenue last winter was a direct result of the cold weather.
112. The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the towns business manager.
Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who dont exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saludas municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.
Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录：
研究显示有规律地锻炼的人生病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设备良好的体育馆，我们应该可以大约减少50%的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。
1. There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees health and the provision of a well-equipped gym.
2. Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.
3. Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget since the health incidents occur very randomly.
In this memo Saludas business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the towns budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who dont exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the towns budget. The managers argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.
First, the manager assumes that Saludas employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis.
Second, the manager assumes that Saludas employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Saudas employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance.
Third, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim.
Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the managers plan is unacceptable.
In conclusion, the business managers proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saludas budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.
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