13. The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio station to local businesses.
The Cumquat Cafe began advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last years totals. Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable.
将本地电台的广告时间卖给本地企业的计划：
Cumquat咖啡店今年开始在我们电台做广告，并很高兴的看到它的业务比去年全年增长10%。他们的成功向您展示了您如何能够利用电台广告使您的企业获利更多。
1， 没有排除他因For example, the Cumquat might have changed owners or chefs; it might have launched a coupon ad campaign in the local print media; or it might have changed or updated the menu.
2， 同时出现不代表有因果关系
3， 错误类比。We must also assume that what is true of the Cumquat will likewise be true of most other businesses.
In an attempt to sell radio advertising time, this ad claims that radio advertising will make businesses more profitable. The evidence cited is a ten percent increase in business that the Cumquat Cafe has experienced in the year during which it advertised on the local radio station. This argument is unconvincing because two questionable assumptions must be made for the stated evidence to support the authors conclusion.
The first assumption is that radio advertising alone has caused the increase in business at the Cumquat Cafe. This assumption is questionable because it overlooks a number of other factors that might have contributed to the Cumquats success. For example, the Cumquat might have changed owners or chefs; it might have launched a coupon ad campaign in the local print media; or it might have changed or updated the menu. Yet another possibility is that a local competitor went out of business. These are just a few of the factors that could help explain the Cumquats growth. Because the author fails to eliminate these possibilities, the assumption in question need not be accepted.
Even if it is granted that radio advertising is responsible for the Cumquats success, another assumption must be made before we can conclude that radio advertising will result in increased profits for businesses in general. We must also assume that what is true of the Cumquat will likewise be true of most other businesses. But there are all kinds of important differences between cafes and other businesses that could affect how radio audiences react to their advertising. We cannot safely assume that because a small restaurant has benefited from radio advertising, any and all local businesses will similarly benefit.
In conclusion, it would be imprudent for a business to invest in radio advertising solely on the basis of the evidence presented. To strengthen the conclusion, it must be established that radio advertising was the principal cause of increased business at the Cumquat. Once this is shown, it must be determined that the business in question is sufficiently like the Cumquat, and so can expect similar returns from investment in radio ad time.
14. The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial.
Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last years graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.
两年前Nova高中开始在3个科学科目中使用互动计算机指导。学校的退学率立刻下降，而且去年的毕业生在大学取得了一些很不错的成绩。在未来的预算中，校董事会应该在能得到的资金中拨出更大的一块用来购买更多的计算机。而且这一区的所有学校都应该在课程中采用互动计算机指导。
interactive interact instruction logical logically covincing ignore decline atttibute
dropout中途退学usage sufficient fund budget compromise comprise impressive portion proportional ultimately ultimate strengthen graduate graduation applicable apply applicant application affordable afford district
1， 没有排除他因。很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter discipline applied last year.
还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs
2， 错误类比，其他的学校情况跟这个不一定相同。比如很可能是艺术类等文科院校，而这个是科学类的，所以不同。
3， 过去推将来，不对。很可能短暂的interest之后学生会失去兴趣。或者别的什么情况发生了变化。
Sample essay 1:
The argument that the school board should buy more computers and adopt interactive computer instruction is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First, the argument assumes that the decline of school dropout and the achievements of last years graduates results from the adoption of interactive computer instruction. However, there are several reasons why this might not be true. For example, achievements could have been made in other subjects than the ones with interactive computer instruction. Or last years graduates might not have been given the interactive computer instruction. Or the decline of the rate of dropout could be attributed to stricter discipline applied last year.
Second, even supposing the Nova High Schools decline of the dropout and last years graduates achievements benefit directly from the usage of interactive computer instruction, the success of the instruction in one school may not ensure the success in other schools. If it does not suit other schools, the instruction will not work.
Finally, even if the decline of the rate of dropout and the achievements of the last years graduates are the direct results of the interactive computer instruction, we still do not know whether the school can afford to apply the instruction on all the subjects or to all the students. If the school does not have sufficient fund and has to cut budgets on other projects such as the library, the quality of the schools education will also compromise.
Thus, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the dropout rate declined and last years graduates made impressive achievements does little to prove the conclusion that other schools should use a greater portion of their funds to apply the instruction since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the decline of the dropout rate and the achievements of the graduates are the direct results of interactive computer instruction, that the instruction is also applicable to other schools in the district, and that the instruction is affordable to all the schools in the district.
Sample essay 2:
The editorial recommends that the school board of Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum. Two reasons are offered in support of this recommendation. First, the introduction of interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects was immediately followed by a decline in the school dropout rate. Second, last years graduates experienced impressive achievements in college. This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.
To begin with, this argument is a classic instance of after this, therefore because of this reasoning. The mere fact that the introduction of interactive computer instruction preceded the impressive performance of recent graduates and the decline in the dropout rate is insufficient to conclude that it was the cause of these events. Many other factors could bring about these same results. For example, the school may have implemented counseling and training programs that better meet the needs of students who might otherwise leave school to take jobs. In addition, the school may have introduced programs to better prepare students for college.
Secondly, the author assumes that the impressive achievements of last years graduates bear some relation to the introduction of interactive computer instruction at Nova High. However, no evidence is offered to support this assumption. Lacking evidence that links the achievements of the recent graduates to the interactive instruction, it is presumptuous to suggest that the computer instruction was in some way responsible for the students impressive performance.
In conclusion, the recommendation that Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum is ill-founded. To strengthen this recommendation the author would have to demonstrate that the decline in the dropout rate and the impressive performance of recent graduates came about as a result of the use of computer-interactive instruction. All that has been shown so far is a correlation between these events.
15. The following appeared as a part of an advertisement for Adams, who is seeking reelection as governor.
Re-elect Adams, and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the states economy. Over the past year alone, seventy percent of the states workers have had increases in their wages, five thousand new jobs have been created, and six corporations have located their headquarters here. Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that the economy is likely to continue to improve if Adams is reelected. Adamss opponent, Zebulon, would lead our state in the wrong direction, because Zebulon disagrees with many of Adamss economic policies.
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
正在寻求重新选举为地方长官的Adams的广告宣传：
再次选举Adams，你将为在提升本州经济的过程中已被证实了的领导能力投票。仅在过去的一年中，全州有70%的工人的工资增加了，5000个新就业机会被创造，6个公司将他们的总部设在这里。最近的调查中多数回答者说他们相信如果Adams当选经济将会继续增长。Adams的竞争者Zebulon将把我们州引向错误的方向，因为Zebulon不同意Adams的多数经济政策。
1. 数据vague，物价水平和工资哪个长的更快?5000个就业机会和总体失业水平相比是不是微不足道?六个公司总部设在这里，有没有离开的?调查是由谁进行的，接受调查的又是谁，可信度怎么样?
2. 就算经济确实增长了也不一定是ADAMS的功劳
3. 以上两点没有说明，也就无法因为ZEBULON的经济观点与之相左而判定他上任就会使经济下滑。
This political advertisement recommends re-electing Governor Adams because he has a proven leadership role in improving the states economy. In support of this reason the author cites these statistics: in the past year, most state workers wages have gone up; 5,000 new jobs have been created; and six corporations have located in the state. Another reason offered for re-electing Adams is a recent poll, which indicates that most respondents believe the state economy would continue to improve if he were re-elected. Finally, the author claims that rival Zebulon would harm the states economy because he disagrees with Adams fiscal policies. This argument is fraught with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted claims.
To begin with, the statistics are intended to support the main claim that the state is economically better off with Adams as governor. But these statistics are vague and oversimplified, and thus may distort the states overall economic picture. For example, state workers pay raises may have been minuscule and may not have kept up with cost of living or with pay for state workers in other states. Moreover, the 5,000 new jobs may have been too few to bring state unemployment rates down significantly; at the same time, many jobs may have been lost. Finally, the poll indicates that six new corporations located in the state, but fails to indicate if any left.
Next, the poll cited by the author is described in the vaguest possible terms. The ad does not indicate who conducted the poll, who responded, or how the poll was conducted. Until these questions are answered, the survey results are worthless as evidence for public opinion about Adams or his economic policies.
Finally, while we have only vague and possibly distorted evidence that the state is better off with Adams, we have absolutely no evidence that it would be worse off with Zebulon. Given that the state economy is good at the moment, none of the authors reasons establishes that Adams is the cause of this. And neither do they establish that the state wouldnt be even better off with someone else in office.
In conclusion, this argument is weak. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide additional information about the adequacy of state workers pay raises, the effect of the 5,000 jobs on the states employment picture, the overall growth of corporations in the state, and other features of the state economy. Also, the author must support the claims that Adams actions have caused any economic improvement and that in the future Adams will impart more economic benefit than would Zebulon.
16. The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.
Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields.
Waymarsh城日报教育版的一篇文章：
过去的20年内，研究生毕业生发现找到在大学教授他们的学术专长的工作是很困难的。那些从Waymarsh获得研究生学位的要找到这类工作尤其困难。但在下个10年，寻找学术工作的人的好日子要来了。人口统计趋势显示达到上大学年龄的人将在未来10年增加。我们可预期对那些在他们的领域寻找大学教学工作的人来说，工作市场将显着增大。
1. 适龄人口增加不一定上大学人数就一定增加
2. 就算上大学人数增加需要的大学老师也不一定增加
3. 就算需要的老师增加,waymarsh的就业也不见得会水涨船高.
1， 人口增加也不一定都上大学。很可能都选择了就业。
2， even if we grant the preceding assumption上大学的人多了不一定需要更多老师，很可能大学通过增大一个班人数的方式，保持原有老师数;
3， 就算需要GRADUATED DEGREE的人，也不代表W也会benefit from this trend，缺少信息，它可能是一个质量不好的大学，学校不会从这里的人中挑选。foretold regarding the employability
Demographic trends that indicate an increase in the number of college-aged people over the next ten years lead the author to predict an improved job market for all people seeking college-level teaching positions in their academic disciplines. Moreover, the author argues that since Waymarsh University students with advanced degrees had an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs in the past, these trends portend better times ahead for Waymarsh graduates. This argument is problematic in three important respects.
First, the author assumes that an increase in the number of college-aged people over the next decade will necessarily result in an increase in the number of people who attend college during this period. While this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no means a certainty. For example, a world war or economic depression in the next decade would certainly nullify this expectation.
Second, even if we grant the preceding assumption, we must also consider the additional assumption that increased university enrollments will lead to an increase in teaching positions in all fields. However, it might turn out that some teaching specialties are in greater demand than others in the future, resulting in a disproportionate number of teaching positions available in various fields. Consequently, persons trained in some fields might find it more difficult, if not impossible, to find teaching jobs in the future.
Finally, little can be foretold regarding the employability of Waymarsh graduates in the future based on the information provided in the argument. Lacking information about the reasons why Waymarsh graduates had an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs, it is difficult to assess their prospects for the future. It is probable, however, that since Waymarsh has had an especially hard time placing graduates in the past, the mere fact that more jobs are available will not, by itself, ensure that Waymarsh graduates will have an easier time finding teaching jobs during the next decade.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that the only major trend in the next decade will be an increase in the number of people reaching college age. Regarding the future prospects for Waymarsh graduates, the author must provide evidence that there were no idiosyncratic reasons that prevented them from finding jobs in the past.
20. The following appeared in an article in a health and fitness magazine.
Laboratory studies show that Saluda Natural Spring Water contains several of the minerals necessary for good health and that it is completely free of bacteria. Residents of Saluda, the small town where the water is bottled, are hospitalized less frequently than the national average. Even though Saluda Natural Spring Water may seem expensive, drinking it instead of tap water is a wise investment in good health.
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
关于健康和舒适的杂志上的文章：
实验室的研究显示Saluda自然泉水包含有益健康的几种矿物质且完全无菌。灌装此水的小镇Saluda的居民比平均水平的就医率要低，虽然saluda自然泉水可能看起来很贵，喝它而非自来水是一项对健康的明智投资。
1. 小镇居民就医率低可能还有很多其他的因素如：健康的生活方式，自然环境优越，饮食结构科学。
2. 该矿泉水所含的矿物质是否有别与普通的自来水作者并没有给出支撑的论据.而且单纯这几种矿物质不一定能满足人体需要.
3. 完全无菌并不一定对人体十分有好处,水体里的一些细菌是有益的.此外喝这种矿泉水显然不是摄取无菌水 的唯一途径,相比起来一种比较廉价的方式就是把水烧开.
Sample essay 1:
The argument that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water instead of tap water is a wise investment in good health is not entirely logically convincing, since it lacks certain supporting factors.
Firstly, the argument assumes that Saluda Natural Spring Water is the major reason why residents of Saluda are less frequently hospitalized than the national average. However, there is little evidence that this water is the only difference between this place and the rest of the country. And the reason why people in other places are more hospitalized are numerous and varied. There are so many other factors that would bring people in other places to hospitals, such as accidents, food contamination, illnesses, etc.
Secondly, the argument also assumes that the minerals in Saluda National Spring Water are the key minerals for the good health of the residents of Saluda. However, this may not be true. We need not only minerals to keep good heath but also various vitamins. Besides, our body needs more minerals than those contained in Saluda Natural Spring Water.
Finally, even if the Saluda water is the major reason why the residents of Saluda are less hospitalized, the argument still omits the fact that there is more than one way to keep drinking water free from bacteria. For instance, the most common practice is to boil water up to 100 degree Celsius and keep it at that degree for more than 5 minutes. Therefore drinking Saluda water to keep good health is not the only alternative.
Thus, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the Saluda residents are less hospitalized does little to prove the conclusion that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water is a wise investment in good health since it omits the assumptions I have just raised. The argument might have been strengthened by making it plain that Saluda Natural Spring Water is the major reason why the residents of Saluda are less hospitalized, that the water contains all the major minerals essential for the human body, and that there is no other way to keep water from bacteria.
Sample essay 2:
In this argument the author concludes that drinking Saluda Natural Spring Water is preferable to drinking tap water. Three reasons are offered in support of this conclusion: SNSW contains several of the minerals necessary for good health, it is completely tree of bacteria, and residents of Saluda―the town where it is bottled―are hospitalized less frequently than the national average. This argument is unconvincing because it relies on a variety of dubious assumptions.
The first questionable assumption underlying this argument that tap water does not contain the minerals in question and is not completely free of bacteria. This assumption is not supported in the argument. If tap water is found to contain the same minerals and to be free of bacteria, the authors conclusion is substantially undermined.
A second assumption of the argument is that the water residents of Saluda drink is the same as SNSW. Lacking evidence to the contrary, it is possible that Saluda is not the source of the bottled water but is merely the place where SNSW is bottled. No evidence is offered in the argument to dispute this possibility.
Finally, it is assumed without argument that the reason residents are hospitalized less frequently than the national average is that they drink SNSW. Again, no evidence is offered to support this assumption. Perhaps the residents are hospitalized less frequently because they are younger than the national average, because they are all vegetarians, or because they exercise daily. That is, there might be other reasons than the one cited to account for this disparity.
In conclusion, this is an unconvincing argument. To strengthen the conclusion that SNSW is more healthful than tap water, the author must provide evidence that tap water contains harmful bacteria not found in SNSW. Moreover, the author must demonstrate that the residents of Saluda regularly drink the same water as SNSW and that this is why they are hospitalized less frequently than the national average.
28. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
Commuter use of the new subway train is exceeding the transit companys projections. However, commuter use of the shuttle buses that transport people to the subway stations is below the projected volume. If the transit company expects commuters to ride the shuttle buses to the subway rather than drive there, it must either reduce the shuttle bus fares or increase the price of parking at the subway stations.
地方报纸的社论：
通勤者对新的地铁的使用超过了运输公司的设计方案。但是，通勤者对运送人们去地铁站的往返巴士使用低于设计容量。如果运输公司希望通勤者乘往返巴士而不是开车去地铁站，他们必须或者降低巴士车费，或者提高地铁站的停车费。
1. 对原因估计的可能不对.由作者给出的他认为必须执行的解决方案来看,作者一定认为人们不坐往返巴士而是开车去地铁站的原因是巴士车费相对于地铁站的停车费来说比较贵.To begin with, by concluding that the transit company must either reduce shuttle fares or increase parking fees, the author assumes that these are the only available solutions to the problem of limited shuttle use.但事实原因可能还有很多.例如:巴士的环境不好速度比较慢中间间隔时间太长车站位置不好等等.
2. 相应的作者所提出的两个必须要执行的解决方案也就不一定实用.应对于上述提到的问题可能一个比较好的解决方案是:对巴士进行装修把车站设置在更为便利的地方提高巴士的车速缩短时间间隔.
inconvenient shuttle routing and/or scheduling adjust adopt mutually exclusive combination
The author assumes that reducing shuttle fees and increasing parking fees are mutually exclusive alternatives. impose However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either/or choice.
1， 没有排除他因，这两个是否是唯一的原因
2， 解决方案不是false dilemma。
The author concludes that the local transit company must either reduce fares for the shuttle buses that transport people to their subway stations or increase parking fees at the stations. The reasons offered to support this conclusion are that commuter use of the subway train is exceeding the transit companys expectations, while commuter use of the shuffle buses is below projected volume. This argument is unconvincing because the author oversimplifies the problem and its solutions in a number of ways.
To begin with, by concluding that the transit company must either reduce shuttle fares or increase parking fees, the author assumes that these are the only available solutions to the problem of limited shuttle use. However, it is possible that other factors―such as inconvenient shuttle routing and/or scheduling, safety concerns, or an increase in carpools―contribute to the problem. If so, adjusting fares or parking fees would might not solve the problem.
In addition, the author assumes that reducing shuttle fees and increasing parking fees are mutually exclusive alternatives. However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either/or choice. Adjusting both shuttle fares and parking fees might produce better results. Moreover, if the author is wrong in the assumption that parking fees and shuttle fees are the only possible causes of the problem, then the most effective solution might include a complex of policy changes―for example, in shuttle fares, parking fees, rerouting, and rescheduling.
In conclusion, this argument is weak because the author oversimplifies both the problem and its possible solutions. To strengthen the argument the author must examine all factors that might account for the shuttles unpopularity. Additionally, the author should consider all possible solutions to determine which combination would bring about the greatest increase in shuttle use.
31. The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
Studies suggest that an average coffee drinkers consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinkers consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.
一家投资财经咨询公司的商务计划：
研究显示一个普通咖啡消费者的咖啡消耗从10到60岁随年龄增长，甚至在60岁以后，咖啡消费仍然保持很高。而一般的可乐消费者的可乐消费随年龄增加递减。在过去40年中这两个趋势都很稳定。由于在未来的20年内老年人口将显着增加，咖啡需求回增长而可乐需求会降低。因此，我们应该考虑将我们的投资从可口可乐转向雀巢咖啡。
1.all the things are equal 作者在得出这个推荐之前做了一个假设就是在未来的二十年中咖啡豆以及可乐的原料的相对价格不变.但这在这么长的一段时期是不可能的.很可能它们其中一种的原料相对于另外一种大幅度上升.由于相对成本的变化从而改变了相对价格也就改变了消费者的消费倾向.那么作者的建议就是完全靠不住的.
2.除了年龄因素很多其他的因素也会影响两种饮料的消费量例如某一代人可能在每个年龄段都比另一代人消费更多的可乐.除非作者排除这些其他因素,否则说理是gratuitous的
3.没有足够有力的证据表明该项研究结果就是可信的Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies.Moreover, while the phrase studies suggest may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
the author can not justify his recommendation ill-founded 无正当理由的
1， 老人数增加不能导致年轻人数减少。是错误的推测。同时，即使老人增加，那么增加的老人很可能不是coffee drinker。
2， 过去和未来不一样，未来可能两种成本变化，价格发生很大变化。
3， 该研究结果不一定可信!
In this argument a consulting firm recommends the transfer of investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because, during the next 20 years, coffee demand will increase while cola demand will decrease. This prediction is based on the expectation that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years, together with statistics, reportedly stable for the past 40 years, indicating that coffee consumption increases with age while cola consumption declines with increasing age. For three reasons, this financial advice may not be sound.
First, the argument assumes that relative supply conditions will remain unchanged over the next twenty years. However, the supply and cost of cola and coffee beans, as well as other costs of doing business as a producer of coffee or cola, may fluctuate greatly over a long time period. These factors may affect comparative prices of coffee and cola, which in turn may affect comparative demand and the value of investments in coffee and cola companies. Without considering other factors that contribute to the value of a coffee or cola company, the firm cannot justify its recommendation.
Secondly, the argument fails to account for the timing of the increase in coffee consumption. Perhaps the population will age dramatically during the next five years, then remain relatively flat over the following 15 years. Or perhaps most of the increase in average age will occur toward the end of the 20-year period. An investor has more opportunity to profit over the short and long term in the first scenario than in the second, assuming the investor can switch investments along the way. If the second scenario reflects the facts, the firms recommendation would be ill-founded.
Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies. Moreover, while the phrase studies suggest may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.
In conclusion, the firm should not transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee on the basis of this argument. To better evaluate the recommendation, we would need more information about the study upon which it relies. We would also need more detailed projections of population trends during the next 20 years.
32. The following appeared in the editorial section of a West Cambria newspaper.
A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in East Cambria. In order to provide better patient care for accident victims and to raise revenue for our town by collecting service fees for ambulance use, we should disband our volunteer service and hire a commercial ambulance service.
一份西Cambria报纸的社论片断：
最近的对西Cambria的志愿救护服务的回顾显示出其对事故的平均应对时间比设在东Cambria的一个商业救护班要长。为了给事故受害者提供更好的医护服务并通过收取急救服务费来提高我们镇的税收，我们应当解散志愿救护并雇佣商业救护服务。
1. 对事故的反映时间诚然是评价服务质量的一个因素但并不是唯一的因素.所以仅仅因为东区的商业救护班的反映时间短就认定商业救护办的服务更好是gratuitous的.
2. 就算东区的商业班的服务质量更好也并不意味着,西区用商业班就会有一样的成效.因为东西区的情况是不同的.很可能西区的志愿者更有服务,献身意识.
3. 此外除非商业班收十分昂贵的服务费用或者有十分多的事故事实这些都是不可能的, 改成商业是不见得就可以给该镇增加很多税收的.所以把这一点作为理由是不正确的.
considerable revenue significant significance consequently consequence ... is insufficient evidence for the claim that this will be the case for ... ambulance-crew proficiency training emergency
1， 错误类比 两个城市不一样，很可能因为西和东的不一样，比如，路的情况traffic condition。可能东的车辆更好。服务的态度更好。
而且没有说东的志愿情况如何，很可能东的志愿比商业的快。
2， 草率的判断：就算是商业的更快，也不一定更好。反映时间不是唯一的因素，有其他――比如服务的质量，态度，器材等等。
3， 另外，除非商业可以charge considerable fees 或者 accident rate非常高，否则未必带来可观的revenue。
In this argument the author concludes that West Cambria can increase revenues and provide better care to accident victims by disbanding the volunteer ambulance service and hiring a commercial one. The author reasons that this change would yield additional revenues because service fees could be imposed for ambulance use. The author also reasons that the city would provide better service to accident victims because a commercial service would respond more quickly to accidents than a volunteer service would. The authors argument is flawed in two respects.
To begin with, the authors plan for raising revenue for West Cambria is questionable. Unless the service fees are considerable or the accident rate is extremely high, it is unlikely that significant revenues will be raised by charging a fee for ambulance use. Consequently, revenue generation is not a good reason to disband the volunteer service and hire a commercial service.
Next, the authors belief that better patient care would be provided by a commercial ambulance service than by a volunteer service is based on insufficient evidence. The fact that the commercial service in East Cambria has a lower average response time than the volunteer service in West Cambria is insufficient evidence for the claim that this will be the case for all commercial services. Moreover, the authors recommendation depends upon the assumption that response time to an accident is the only factor that influences patient care. Other pertinent factors―such as ambulance-crew proficiency and training, and emergency equipment―are not considered.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to show that substantial revenue for the town could be raised by charging service fees for ambulance use. Additionally, the author would have to provide more evidence to support the claim that commercial ambulance services provide better patient care than volunteer services.
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