雅思阅读精选：埃及公投 背道而驰

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　　2012年12月26日雅思阅读精选：背道而驰

　　Egypts referendum

　　Going the wrong way

　　Muhammad Morsi must accommodate the secular opposition; if necessary, the West should push him

　　IT LOOKS pretty certain that the constitution which Muhammad Morsi, Egypts president, has presented to the people will win their endorsement in a referendum that is being held in two stages . On December 15th a majority of voters in the ten provinces polled said yes, though 57% of Cairos 6m voters said no. On December 22nd the remaining voters, who are likely to be more conservative, will probably grant their approval, too. Mr Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood party may conclude they have a mandate to guide Egypt in an Islamist direction, away from more open, permissive ways.

　　They would be wrong to do so. This line of thinking threatens to plunge Egypt into a protracted period of impoverishing instability, which in the end will hurt Islamists as much as everyone else. The more pragmatic Islamists, perhaps including Mr Morsi, should change course while they still have time.

　　Even if the constitution gets popular approval, it will not have a ringing endorsement. Less than one-third of eligible voters are reckoned to have turned out in the first round of the referendum, and the margin of assent has been slim. Coptic Christians, who make up about a tenth of Egypts 85m people, are unnerved by the documents Islamist flavour, as are many Egyptians with secular, liberal or left-wing views. And despite the referendum results, the Brothers may be losing favour. Since winning a clear plurality in a general election nearly a year ago, their popularity has been dipping.

　　Hardline Brothers may be tempted to respond by gripping onto power even more tightly. But the organisation that suffered so many decades of persecution under President Hosni Mubarak should surely realise where that may lead. Instead, Mr Morsi and his allies would do better to respect alternative opinions and stop treating political opponents as mortal enemies conspiring with godless Westerners to do them down.

　　Time to leave the streets

　　As a conciliatory gesture, Mr Morsi could use his powers of appointment to ensure that parliaments upper house, the Shura Council, becomes more representative. Elected with only 10% of the vote, when it was widely assumed to be a mere talking shop that would be abolished by the new constitution, 83% of its members are Islamists, a far higher proportion than they would win in a fair election today. Given that the Shura Council will now be the sole legislature until fresh elections to the lower house take place in two months time, it would be wise to bring in more secular sorts and Christians. The Shura Council should also amend the new constitutions most blatantly sectarian and anti-democratic clausessuch as the ones allowing the religious establishment to meddle in legislation and giving the army exorbitant political and budgetary perks.

　　The opposition, for its part, should start relying more on negotiation and less on demonstration. Street protests were a force for good before democracy prevailedthey toppled Mr Mubarak, after allbut if they become a routine way to change the law and remove governments, then Egypt will never learn how to reconcile interests and settle disputes through everyday politics. The non-Islamist opposition, which is coming together for the first time in a broad front, should concentrate on preparing for the imminent general election. To compete with Islamists at a local level, they must start tackling the urgent bread-and-butter concerns of poor people.

　　The West has rightly stayed out of Egyptian politics. But, once written, a constitution is hard to change back, so outsiders should now voice their anxieties about the direction Mr Morsi is taking. Germanys government was right recently to postpone a dollop of aid until Mr Morsi shows a greater willingness to pass the test of real democracy. The Americans, who hand over $1.6 billion a year, should do the same.

　　At the start of the Arab spring, optimists hoped that liberal democracy would sweep the region and pessimists predicted that Islamists would grasp power and keep hold of it. Recent events have taken Egypt a step in the pessimists direction. But the old system failed, in the end, because oppressive governments that ignore their peoples views risk getting violently overthrown. It is not too late for Mr Morsi to show he has learned that lesson.

　　穆罕默德穆尔西必须照顾到世俗反对派的需求;如若需要，西方应该对其施加压力

　　现在看上去是很确定的事情了--埃及总统穆罕默德穆尔西展现在民众面前的那部宪法将会在一个分两阶段举行的全民公投中获得通过。在12月15日，被调查的10个省份中大多数选民支持该宪法;尽管在开罗，6百万选民中有57%表示反对。在12月22日，剩下的那些选民也很可能会投下他们的赞成票。穆尔西总统和他的政党穆斯林兄弟会可能会因此认为他们得到民众的授权，要将埃及朝着伊斯兰方向领进，驰离较为开放放任的道路。

　　要是这么做他们就错了。这种思路会使埃及堕入一个越发不稳定的漫长时期，而最终结果就是伊斯兰派会受到与其他人一样的同等伤害。更加实际的伊斯兰派人员，或许这也包括穆尔西总统，应该尽早改辙易途，以免为时过晚。

　　即使这部宪法得到民众支持，这种支持也不会是强有力的。在第一轮公投中，有投票资格的民众中参与投票的不到三分之一，而且赞成票数只是稍稍高出那么一点。占埃及8500万人口十分之一的科普特基督徒对于这部宪法的伊斯兰色彩感到不安，而同样不安的还有很多持世俗、自由主义或是左翼观点的埃及人。另外，尽管公投结果看似倾向穆斯林兄弟会，而兄弟会实则可能正在渐渐失去民众的拥护。自差不多一年前在大选中获得绝大多数选票以来，他们的欢迎度是每况愈下。

　　对于这种情况，强硬派兄弟会成员的回应可能是想去更紧地把握权力。但是作为一个在穆巴拉克总统执政期间，遭受了数十年苦难的组织来说，他们应该很清楚这么做的结果会是什么。穆尔西总统和其盟友不尊重异见，并将政治对手看作自己的死敌，认为他们和没信仰的西方势力勾结在一起，以把自己推下台;如果穆尔西总统他们能够改变这种做法，那么反而会取得较好的结果。

　　上街游行应该刹刹车了

　　为作出和解姿态，穆尔西总统可行使其任命权，来确保议会上院，舒拉委员会更具代表性。这个只有10%的选民参与投票选出的委员会，当时普遍被人们认为只是一个高谈阔论，无权决策，会被新宪法废除的机构;舒拉委员会中83%的委员是伊斯兰派，这个比例在今天的一个公正选举中是绝不会达到的。考虑到直到两个月后下院新选举举行前，舒拉委员会将会是唯一的立法机关，那么引入更多世俗派和基督教派的人员便是明智之举。舒拉委员会还应该修改新宪法中一些明目张胆写在那的派系条款和反民主条款，比如说新宪法中允许宗教机构干预立法，以及给予军队政治和预算上过分的特殊待遇的一些内容。

　　就反对派来说，他们应开始更多地依赖于磋商，慢慢减少通过游行来解决问题。在民主盛行前，上街游行是一种正义的力量--不管怎么说，它推翻了穆巴拉克政权;但是，如果这成为一种变更法律、推翻政府的常规方法的话，那么埃及将永远无法学会如何通过日常的政治手段去协调利益、解决争端。如今第一次算真正团结起来的非伊斯兰反对派，应该把注意力放在即将举行的大选的准备工作上。要和伊斯兰派在地方层面上竞争，反对派必须开始去解决穷人们迫切关注的吃饭问题。

　　西方没有插手埃及政治的做法无可非议。但是，一部宪法一旦写成，再要更改并非易事。所以，就穆尔西总统现在的这个行动方向，外界应该表达出他们对此的焦虑。德国政府最近的做法就很正确：德国延迟了一笔援助资金的发放，直到穆尔西总统更有诚意地表现出他愿意接受真正民主体制的考验。每年向埃及捐助16亿美金的美国政府也应效仿。

　　阿拉伯之春伊始，乐观人士希望自由民主之风可以吹遍阿拉伯，而悲观人士则预测伊斯兰派会夺取权力并且攥紧不放。最近的一系列事件让埃及向悲观人士的预测走近一步。但是旧体系最终之所以垮台，是因为鱼肉人民的政府忽视了民众的看法，而这样的政府就有被暴力推翻的危险。穆尔西总统如果想告诉人们他明白这一点，那现在采取行动还为时不晚。