难民潮或终结“默克尔时代”

自2005年至今，默克尔已经执政10年，德国一直处于繁荣的"默克尔时代"。但今年，大量涌入难民带来的各种问题，或为这个时代画上句号。

At the beginning of this year, Angela Merkelhad a good claim to be the most successful politician in the world. The German chancellor had won three successive election victories. She was the dominant political figure in Europe and hugely popular at home. But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era.

今年初，安格拉·默克尔有很好的理由号称世界上最成功的政界人士。这位德国总理已连续三次胜选。她是欧洲最具影响力的政治人物，在国内也广受欢迎。然而，冲向德国的难民危机很可能预示着"默克尔时代"的终结。

But the refugee crisis that has broken over Germany is likely to spell the end of the Merkel era. With the country in line to receive more than a million asylum-seekers this year alone, public anxiety is mounting — and so is criticism of Ms Merkel, from within her own party. Some of her close political allies acknowledge that it is now distinctly possible that the chancellor will have to leave office, before the next general election in 2017. Even if she sees out a full term, the notion of a fourth Merkel administration, widely discussed a few months ago, now seems improbable.

由于仅今年就要接收超过100万寻求庇护者，德国公众的焦虑情绪正在上升，党内对默克尔的批评也越来越多。几位与她关系密切的政治盟友承认，现在看来很有可能的是默克尔不得不在2017年下届大选前下台。即使她做完这一任期，几个月前还被广泛讨论的第四届默克尔政府如今看来已不太可能。

In some ways, all this is deeply unfair. Ms Merkel did not cause the Syrian civil war, or the troubles of Eritrea or Afghanistan. Her response to the plight of the millions of refugees displaced by conflict has been bold and compassionate. The trouble is that Ms Merkel's government has clearly lost control of the situation. German officials publicly endorse the chancellor's declaration that "We can do this". But there is panic just beneath the surface: costs are mounting, social services are creaking, Ms Merkel's poll ratings are falling and far-right violence is on the rise.

从某些方面看，这一切对默克尔非常不公。叙利亚内战、厄立特里亚或阿富汗的困境并非默克尔造成。她对数百万因冲突而流离失所的难民的回应是大胆而富有同情心的。问题是默克尔政府显然已经失去了对局势的控制。虽然德国官员公开支持总理的声明——"我们可以做到"，但表面之下隐藏着恐慌：开支越来越大，社会服务体系不堪重负，默克尔的民意支持率正在下滑，而极右暴力事件正在增多。

Could Ms Merkel still turn the situation around? If the German government gets lucky, the coming of winter will slow the flow of refugees, providing a breathing space to organise the reception of asylum seekers and to come up with new arrangements with transit countries, particularly Turkey. Regardless of the chancellor's personal fate and reputation, the refugee crisis marks a turning point.

默克尔还能扭转局势吗？如果德国政府幸运的话，冬天的到来将减缓难民流入，可以为安排收容寻求庇护者，并与难民过境国家（尤其是土耳其）一起制定新的安排提供喘息空间。姑且不论默克尔的个人命运和声誉，这场难民危机标志着一个转折点。