新兴市场的新缩写

After much contemplation about the deficiencies ofemerging markets as a concept and what would berequired in a more useful descriptor, I believe referring to these investments as Asteriscs, orassets tied to economies of risky countries, does a better job.

在反复思考了“新兴市场这个概念的种种缺陷，以及一个更有用的描述词需要包含哪些要素之后，我认为把这些投资称为Asteriscs(即assets tied to economies of risky countries的首字母缩写，意为“高风险国家经济体关联资产)更为贴切。

The catchy term emerging markets has been a marketing success. It has also been a poorguide for investors. Above all, it is confusingly inconsistent.

“新兴市场这个抓住想象力的词是一个营销上的成功。但对投资者来说，它是一个糟糕的指引。最主要的是，这个词存在令人困惑的自相矛盾之处。

The term describes characteristics of the actual market: a nascent market with low liquidity.It can also refer to a country: an asset class of an “emerging country. Problematically, theterm is often used in both ways simultaneously. Yet, a country can have several markets(equities, bonds, currencies, real estate and others) with different characteristics.

这个词描述了实际市场的特征：一个流动性较低的新生市场。这个词还可以指代一个国家：某个“新兴国家的一个资产类别。问题在于，这个词往往用来同时表述这两层含义。然而，一个国家可能有几个特征各不相同的市场(股票、债券、货币、房地产和其他)。

The concept of emerging markets can be misleading. Do markets or countries have toundergo positive transformations to be “emerging? Occasional sarcastic references to“submerging markets are understandable.

新兴市场的概念可能产生误导。市场或者国家必须经历积极的转变才能冠上“新兴之名吗?人们偶尔会语带讽刺地提及“下潜市场，这可以理解。

Furthermore, the term emerging markets may make us take too much comfort from itscounterpart, developed markets. “Developed implies a stable equilibrium. Can developedmarkets regress? Recent debt crises in several developed countries indicate this question isnot theoretical.

此外，“新兴市场这个词可能让我们对与其对应的“发达市场过于放心。“发达暗示了一种稳定的均衡状态。发达市场是否会倒退?近年几个发达国家的债务危机表明，这个问题并非只属于理论层面。

The description of emerging markets as nascent markets fails to provide their definingcharacteristic. Lower liquidity is not always characteristic of emerging markets, nor is it anattribute exclusive to them.

将新兴市场描述成新生的市场未能透彻表述它们的本质特征。低流动性并不总是新兴市场的特性，也并非新兴市场特有。

More recently, a different label — frontier markets — has appeared to describe less liquidemerging markets.

近年出现了一个不同的标签——前沿市场——用来描述流动性较低的新兴市场。

Defining EM country risks

定义新兴市场的国别风险

A country’s wealth is a good starting point for defining an emerging country. It bundlestogether many attributes, as per capita national income exhibits a strong, yet not perfect,correlation with other characteristics of interest to investors: institutional stability, rule oflaw, economic competitiveness, creditworthiness.

要定义一个新兴国家，该国的财富是不错的出发点，它集合了许多属性，因为人均国民收入表现出与投资者感兴趣的其他特征很强(尽管并非完美)的关联度：体制稳定、法治、经济竞争力和信誉。

We can thus start by thinking about emerging markets as a collection of asset classesaffected by developments in non-rich countries.

因此，我们可以先把新兴市场设想成受到不富裕国家发展影响的一个资产类别集合。

Viewed this way, the appeal and risks of emerging markets become clearer. The appeal isbased on a promise that economies of emerging countries can grow at higher rates than thoseof their developed counterparts. This promise is embedded in the very definition of anemerging country. A non-rich country is starting with a lower base and has more room tocatch up.

从这个角度看，新兴市场的吸引力和风险变得比较清晰。其吸引力基于新兴国家的经济增长速度快于发达国家的可能性。这种可能性隐含在新兴国家的定义之中。一个起点较低的不富裕国家有更大追赶空间。

The definition also warns us about main investment risks in emerging markets. There isinformation in the fact that these countries are not rich.

这个定义也提醒我们警惕新兴市场的主要投资风险。这些国家不富裕的事实本身是包含一些信息的。

However, some rich countries facing geopolitical threats, regime-shattering political risk orsevere debt problems could be still classified as emerging.

然而，一些面临地缘政治威胁、政权崩塌的政治风险或者严重债务问题的富国依然可能被划归为新兴国家。

We need a more comprehensive definition of an emerging country using the presence ofrelatively high country risk as the differentiating criterion. Regardless of their specific nature,country risks share a common characteristic — the potential to affect performance of allasset classes with strong ties to that country.

我们需要将相对较高的国别风险的存在，作为一个区分标准，对新兴国家下一个更为全面的定义。无论其具体性质如何，国别风险有一个共性，那就是可能影响与该国密切关联的所有资产类别的表现。

Of course, recognising high country risk is easier after the event than before it. Still, at leastone of the following characteristics is present in all cases of elevated country risk:

当然，在事后意识到较高的国别风险比事前容易。话虽如此，所有较高的国别风险案例都至少存在以下特征之一：

A country’s wealth below the high income threshold

国家财富低于高收入门槛

A geopolitical threat

地缘政治威胁

Impaired creditworthiness

信誉受损

A non-democratic political regime

非民主政体

A geopolitical threat needs no explanation, with wars and lesser types of military conflictsconstituting important risk factors. Impaired creditworthiness, as reflected for example in aspeculative-grade credit rating, is a country risk because default on public debt is a systemicevent that undermines investor confidence, damages the financial system and raises the costof capital. Last, democracies institutionalise uncertainty as elected governments areconstantly changing. Yet it is precisely the flexibility of a democratic system that mitigatesthe risk of a more sizeable political upheaval present in non-democratic regimes.

地缘政治威胁无需解释，战争和较低烈度的军事冲突构成重要的风险因素。就像(举个例子)投机级信用评级所反映的那样，信誉受损之所以是国别风险，是因为公共债务违约是一种系统性事件，它将削弱投资者信心、损害金融体系，抬高资本成本。最后，民主政体将不确定性体制化，因为选举产生的政府总是在变更。然而，也正是民主体制的灵活性，缓解了非民主政体中存在的爆发更大政治动荡的风险。

In a world enamoured of acronyms, we can thus conceptualise emerging markets as Asteriscs— assets tied to economies of risky countries.

因此，在一个醉心于首字母缩略词的世界里，我们可以将新兴市场概念化为Asteriscs——高风险国家经济体关联资产。

In other words, emerging markets are asset classes with an asterisk next to them whichshould remind investors that, in addition to traditional risks which vary by asset class, theyare also taking on an elevated country risk.

换句话说，新兴市场是旁边加了星号(asterisk，形似Asteriscs)的资产类别，这应当提醒投资者：除了随资产类别而各有不同的传统风险，他们还面对较高的国别风险。

Empirical research highlighting the importance of country risks in emerging markets supportsthis approach.

突显出新兴市场国别风险重要性的实证研究，支持这一做法。

Thinking of emerging markets as Asteriscs illuminates their two roles in a portfolio. First, bytaking on elevated country risks, emerging markets can potentially enhance returns. Second,Asteriscs may also diversify the country risk levels within a portfolio.

将新兴市场想成Asteriscs表明了它们在投资组合中的双重角色。首先，较高的国别风险意味着，新兴市场有望带来更高回报。第二，Asteriscs或许也能分散一个投资组合内部的国别风险。

This is a potentially significant benefit, considering the home bias of many portfolios. It alsomakes accommodation for the fact that some developed economies are moving fast in thedirection of becoming Asteriscs.

考虑到许多投资组合的本土偏向，这是一个潜在的重大好处。这个概念还顾及这样一个事实，即某些发达经济体正朝着Asteriscs的方向快速转型。