赴东南亚中国游客人数骤降

Key Southeast Asian markets have seen a markeddrop in Chinese tourists, a growth sector acrossmuch of the globe, as air crashes and geopoliticaltensions take their toll.

前往东南亚主要旅游目的地的中国游客显著减少，这在一定程度上是不止一起空难和地缘政治紧张的结果。对于全球很多地方，接待出境游的中国人是一个成长型行业。

While China spends more on outbound travel thanany other nation, up 28 per cent to $165bn lastyear, the reversal of fortunes for some ofSoutheast Asia’s main tourism destinations underlines the risks that countries face as they lookto China for growth.

尽管中国人在出境游期间的支出多于其他任何国家(去年增长28%，至1650亿美元)，但东南亚一些主要旅游目的地的命运逆转，突显了目的地国家寄望中国实现增长的风险。

The trend is particularly concerning for countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, which werebanking on Chinese tourists to help boost their slowing economies.

这一趋势尤其让马来西亚和印尼等国担忧，这些国家此前寄望中国游客帮助提振不断放缓的经济。

“These Asian markets have been the early recipients of the largest Chinese outbound flows andhave quickly adapted to a recognition that the China market will progressively swamp allothers, said Will Horton, an analyst at the Centre for Aviation, a research company, in HongKong.

“这些亚洲市场是中国人出境游高潮时期的早期目的地，它们很快适应了一种认识，即中国人将逐步挤掉其他所有客源，研究公司——航空中心(Centre for Aviation)的分析师威尔霍顿(Will Horton)在香港表示。

“Chinese media and shifts in political winds can abruptly — but often temporarily — turn offtraffic flows. Excessive reliance on any one tourism source inevitably creates this problem.

“中国的媒体和政治风向变化可能突然——但往往是暂时地——中断客流。过度依赖任何一个旅游客源，都不可避免会产生这个问题。

Excluding Thailand, which has seen a rebound in Chinese tourists since its military coup lastyear, the number of Chinese visitors to Southeast Asia fell in the first three months of this yearto 1.5m from 1.9m a year earlier, according to the Centre for Aviation.

航空中心的数据显示，若剔除泰国(该国在去年发生军事政变后，已迎来中国游客人数反弹)，前往东南亚的中国游客在今年头三个月降至150万，而去年同期达到190万。

That signals a continuing trend, with Chinese arrivals in Southeast Asia, excluding Thailand,falling to 6.2m last year from 6.4m in 2013.

这标志着一个持续的趋势，去年，前往东南亚(除泰国外)的中国游客从2013年的640万降至620万。

By contrast, Japan, helped by its weakening currency, and the rest of north Asia have seen ajump in Chinese tourists, up 38 per cent to 3.3m in the first quarter of this year, compared witha year earlier.

相比之下，前往日本(得益于日元疲软)以及北亚其他国家的中国游客人数出现跃升，今年首季同比增长38%，至330万。

Michael Beer, an aviation analyst at Citigroup in Hong Kong, said that the deadly crashes lastyear involving Malaysia Airlines’ flights MH370 and MH17 and AirAsia Indonesia’s QZ8501 hadshaken Chinese tourists’ confidence in travelling to the region.

花旗集团(Citigroup)常驻香港的航空业分析师迈克尔贝尔(Michael Beer)表示，去年发生的几起致命空难——马来西亚航空公司(Malaysia Airlines)的MH370航班和MH17航班，以及亚航印尼(AirAsia Indonesia)的QZ8501航班——使中国游客有点不敢前往东南亚。

Malaysia’s much-criticised handling of the loss of MH370, which disappeared en route to Beijing,has added to the reluctance to travel there.

马航的MH370航班在飞往北京途中失联，马来西亚对这起事件的处理受到大量批评，使中国游客更不愿意前往该国。

Vietnam and the Philippines have suffered because of rising political tensions connected to theirmaritime disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea.

越南和菲律宾受到影响，则是因为两国与中国政府在南中国海的海上纠纷导致政治紧张不断升温。

Mr Horton argues that countries and airlines need to take a more nuanced approach to theChinese market.

航空中心的霍顿认为，旅游目的地国家和航空公司需要对中国游客市场采取更细腻的战略。

“There is little doubt that in the long term Chinese tourists will change the face of globaltourism, he said. “But managing the short- and medium-term blips will be a big part of aChina tourism strategy.

“毫无疑问，长期而言中国游客将改变全球旅游业格局，他说。“但是，管理中短期的起伏将是对华旅游战略的一个重要组成部分。