应对风暴的斯沃琪

The back of an iPhone proclaims that it is “designedin California, made in China. That will not do forSwatch. The words “Made in Switzerland are crucialto the appeal of timepieces, from 4,500 Omegas to 40 Swatches — leaving the companycommitted to manufacturing in one of the world’s most expensive countries.

iPhone背面的文字宣称它是“加州设计，中国组装。对斯沃琪(Swatch)来说，这样可行不通。“瑞士制造的字眼是手表吸引力的重中之重，从4500欧元一块的欧米茄(Omega)手表到40欧元一块的斯沃琪手表都是如此，这让斯沃琪坚持在世界上成本最高的国家之一生产手表。

Switzerland became even more expensive in January, when the Swiss National Bank gave uptrying to contain the appreciation of the franc. Shares in Swatch have clawed back about halfof the 20 per cent drop that followed that decision, helped by half-year results yesterday thatbeat forecasts. At about 16 times forecast 2016 earnings, the valuation is reasonablecompared with past levels and peers such as Richemont, on 19.

今年1月，瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)放弃了遏制瑞士法郎升值的努力，这使瑞士的生产成本变得更为高昂。在瑞士央行做出这一决定后，斯沃琪的股价下跌了20%，不过斯沃琪昨日发布的上半年业绩数据超出预测，帮助其股价收复了大约一半的失地。按照2016年的预期盈利计算，斯沃琪的市盈率为16倍，相比其过去的估值和历峰集团(Richemont，预期市盈率为19倍)等同行业公司的估值，斯沃琪现在的估值较为合理。

Currency movements knocked SFr56m off sales and pushed operating margins down to 18 percent, but sales did at least grow, even in franc terms.

汇率变动使斯沃琪的销售额减少了5600万瑞郎，致使其营运利润率降至18%，但即使按瑞郎计算，斯沃琪的销售额还是增长了。

China is another headwind; it accounts for a third of sales. A clampdown on gifting had alreadyaffected the company’s high-end brands. Recent turmoil in China’s financial markets might yetcurb consumer appetite for mid-market watches, or the ability of Chinese to exploit regionalprice differentials for luxury goods by holidaying in Europe.

中国是另一个不利因素;该市场占斯沃琪销售额的三分之一。中国政府对送礼的打击已经对斯沃琪旗下的高端品牌造成影响。最近中国金融市场的动荡可能还会抑制消费者对中档手表的兴趣，或者降低中国人到欧洲度假时利用地区差价购买奢侈品的能力。

Swatch is responding sensibly. Although committed to increasing market share, it stillmanaged to raise prices in Europe and has held them in China. It is introducing new products,expanding its retail network and sounded notably optimistic about the second half. Despiteits expansion plans, inventories rose only modestly in the first half, suggesting the companyis not struggling to sell merchandise.

斯沃琪做出了合理的回应。尽管斯沃琪寻求扩大市场份额，该公司依然成功地在欧洲提高了价格，并保持了中国市场的价格。斯沃琪正在推出新产品、扩大零售网络，听上去对下半年也非常乐观。尽管有扩张计划，但今年上半年斯沃琪的库存仅小幅增加，说明该公司的销售情况不错。

Investors are putting a lot of trust in the Hayek family, which holds key roles and keeps controlvia a two-tier share structure. Disclosure is patchy. But having weathered one storm at home,they appear well placed to deal with another overseas.

投资者对哈耶克(Hayek)家族寄予很大信任，该家族通过双层股权结构控制斯沃琪公司，并在经营中扮演关键角色。斯沃琪的信息披露情况参差不齐。但安然渡过国内的一场风暴以后，这个家族似乎有能力应对海外的另一场风暴。