发展中国家面临经济结构性放缓

Developing countries are facing a “structuralslowdown likely to last for years and are ceding theirrole as the world’s growth engine to more matureeconomies such as the US, according to the WorldBank.

世界银行(World Bank)称，发展中国家面临可能持续多年的“结构性放缓，并将全球增长发动机的角色让给美国等更成熟的经济体。

The Washington-based bank yesterday lowered itsforecast for global growth this year to 2.8 per cent,partly because the much-anticipated benefits oflower oil prices have been limited.

总部位于华盛顿的世行昨日把今年全球增长预测下调至2.8%，部分原因是许多人预期的较低油价带来的好处迄今有限。

Seven years after the global financial crisis, high-income countries were resuming their role asdrivers of international growth, the World Bank said in its twice-yearly report. By contrast, withthe exception of India and a few others, the bank warned that developing economies such asChina must confront an era of slower growth.

世行在每年发布两次的报告中表示，全球金融危机爆发七年后，高收入国家正在恢复其全球增长发动机的角色。该行警告，相比之下，除印度及少数其他国家以外，中国等发展中经济体必须应对增长较为缓慢的时代。

The bank’s intervention comes amid mounting evidence that the steady boost the worldeconomy has derived for years from the rise of countries such as Brazil and China is becoming adrag.

世行表态之际，越来越多的证据表明，巴西和中国等国崛起多年来给世界经济带来的稳定推动力，正变成一种拖累。

After a sluggish start to the year “the recovery in high-income countries is expected tostrengthen, while a broad-based slowdown appears to be under way in developing countries,the bank said in its report.

世行在其报告中表示，在今年开局疲软之后，“高收入国家的复苏预计会加强，而发展中国家似乎正经历整体放缓。

The “structural slowdown in developing economies such as China has been hit by a range offactors from lower commodity prices to stagnating “South-South trading relationshipsbetween developing peers, Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s leading macroeconomic forecaster,said.

世行首席宏观经济预测师艾汉•科泽(Ayhan Kose)表示，中国等发展中经济体的“结构性放缓遭遇了一系列因素(从大宗商品价格降低，到发展中国家间的“南南贸易关系陷入停滞)的冲击。

But despite its reservations about emerging markets growth, the World Bank said it expectedmost developing economies to weather the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated decision this yearto raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.

不过，虽然对新兴市场的增长持保留态度，但世行表示，预计多数发展中经济体将平稳度过美联储(Fed)今年可能做出的加息决定。这将是美联储近十年来的首次加息决定。

Mr Kose said a Fed rate increase was “an important risk but added that challenges faced byemerging markets such as lower commodity prices were “not going to be changing any timesoon.

科泽表示美联储加息是“一个重要风险。不过他补充说，新兴市场面临的大宗商品价格下滑等挑战，“不会在短期内发生任何改变。