沙特2050年可能淘汰化石燃料

Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, could phaseout the use of fossil fuels by the middle of thiscentury, the kingdom’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, saidyesterday.

沙特阿拉伯石油部长阿里•纳伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)昨日表示，这个全球最大原油出口国到本世纪中叶可能逐渐淘汰化石燃料。

The statement represents a stunning admission bya nation whose wealth, power and outsize influenceare predicated on its vast reserves of oil.

对一个依靠巨大石油储量获得财富、实力和过大影响力的国家来说，这一声明令人震惊。

Mr Naimi, whose gnomic utterances on oil supply routinely move markets, told a conference inParis on business and climate change: “In Saudi Arabia, we recognise that eventually, one ofthese days, we are not going to need fossil fuels. I don’t know when — in 2040, 2050 orthereafter.

纳伊米关于石油供应的精辟言辞经常影响市场行情。他在巴黎举行的一个商业和气候变化会议上表示：“在沙特阿拉伯，我们意识到，最终而言，我们迟早将不需要化石燃料。我不知道具体什么时候——或许在2040年、2050年或之后。

For that reason, he said, the kingdom planned to become a “global power in solar and windenergy and could start exporting electricity instead of fossil fuels in coming years.

他说，出于这个原因，沙特计划成为“世界太阳能和风能大国，并可能在几年后开始出口电力，而非化石燃料。

Many in the energy industry would find his target of a 2040 phase-out too ambitious. SaudiArabia is the largest consumer of petroleum in the Middle East. More than 25 per cent of itstotal crude production — currently over 10m barrels a day — is used domestically.

能源行业的许多人会认为，他提出的2040年逐步淘汰化石燃料的目标过于雄心勃勃。沙特阿拉伯目前是中东地区最大的石油消费国，其原油总产量(如今超过每日1000万桶)的25%以上用于国内消费。

A 2012 Citigroup report said that if Saudi oil consumption continued to grow at current rates,the kingdom could be a net oil importer by 2030.

2012年花旗集团(Citigroup)的一份报告称，如果沙特的石油消费量按照目前的速度继续增长，到2030年该国可能成为一个石油净进口国。

But while acknowledging that Saudi Arabia would one day stop using oil, gas and coal, Mr Naimisaid calls to leave the bulk of the world’s known fossil fuels in the ground to avoid risky levelsof climate change needed to be put “in the back of our heads for a while.

但是，在坦承沙特有朝一日会停止使用石油、天然气和煤炭的同时，纳伊米表示，让世界上大部分已探明化石燃料储量留在地下、以免气候变化达到危险水平的呼吁，需要“在一段时期内被置于脑后。

“Can you afford that today? he asked other conference speakers, including British economistNick Stern, author of the 2006 UK government report on the economics of climate change.

“你今天负担得起那种做法吗?他对会上的其他发言者问道。这些人包括英国经济学家尼克•斯特恩(NickStern)，他是2006年关于气候变化经济学的英国政府报告的作者。

“It may be a great objective but it is going to take a long time, Mr Naimi said.

“这也许是一个伟大的目标，但它需要很长的时间，纳伊米说。

With more than 1bn people lacking access to electricity, there was going to be strong demandfor fossil fuels for many years to come, he said, adding that more work was needed to findways to burn oil, coal and gas without releasing warming carbon dioxide emissions.

他表示，鉴于世界上仍有逾10亿人尚未用上电，化石燃料将在未来多年面对强劲需求。他补充说，需要开展更多工作，以找到燃烧石油、煤炭和天然气而不释放加剧全球变暖的二氧化碳的方法。

Saudi Arabia has long said it plans to use more renewable power. Officials declared three yearsago that they had plans to build so many solar plants they would be able to export solarelectricity. But the fall in oil prices has increased doubts about the fate of such schemes.

沙特多年来一直表示，它计划更多使用可再生能源。该国官员在三年前宣称，他们计划大量建造太阳能发电厂，以期能够出口太阳能电力。但油价下跌令人怀疑此类项目会否上马。