布莱尔布局中东治理咨询业务

布莱尔布局中东治理咨询业务

英国前首相托尼•布莱尔(Tony Blair)正试图在日益强硬的产油国首都阿布扎比(Abu Dhabi)设立办事处，似乎打算借此强化其中东政商两界幕后经纪人的角色。

Tony Blair is looking to open an office in Abu Dhabi, the increasingly assertive oil-rich emirate, in an apparent bid to expand his role as a behind-the-scenes business and political broker in the Middle East.

目前，这位英国前首相在中东仍充满争议。据说他与阿布扎比王储谢赫•穆罕默德•本•扎耶德•阿勒纳赫扬(Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan)关系非常密切，后者与他持有同样鲜明的反伊斯兰主张。布莱尔的一位朋友表示：“他与穆罕默德•本•扎耶德之间意气相投。

The former UK prime minister, whose reputation in the region remains controversial, is said to be very close to the Crown Prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who shares his outspoken anti-Islamist views. “There is chemistry between him and Mohammed bin Zayed, a Blair friend says.

布莱尔持有一份为穆巴达拉(Mubadala)提供咨询服务的商业合同，穆巴达拉是阿布扎比的主权财富基金。此外，布莱尔还对埃及的反伊斯兰领导人也十分支持。在埃及，三名半岛电视台(Al Jazeera)的记者曾在周一因被控支持穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)而被判7年监禁。

Mr Blair, who has a business contract to advise Mubadala, one of the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds, also backs the anti-Islamist leaders in Egypt where three Al Jazeera journalists accused of backing the Muslim Brotherhood were on Monday sentenced to seven years in prison.

熟悉布莱尔事务的知情人告诉英国《金融时报》，布莱尔曾指派专家就穆斯林兄弟会及其所受指控撰写一份报告。埃及军方领导人及其在海湾的支持者曾指控声称穆斯林兄弟会曾参与恐怖活动。

People familiar with his work have told the Financial Times he has commissioned experts to write a report on the Brotherhood and the allegations by Egypt’s military leaders and its Gulf supporters that it is involved in terrorism.

布莱尔的助理表示，布莱尔只会把这一“简报用于个人目的，阿布扎比发言人也坚称该国并未要求他人撰写这一报告。不过，熟悉该简报的人表示，该简报就是代表阿联酋官方完成的。

Mr Blair’s aides say the “briefing document is for his personal use, while an Abu Dhabi spokesman insists it has not commissioned such a report. But people familiar with the briefing say it is being done on behalf of the UAE leadership.

一位布莱尔的助理坚称，布莱尔并不是为了达成中东的商业合同。该助理表示，尽管布莱尔目前还没有在阿布扎比注册办事处，但对服务现有的治理合约(包括与哈萨克斯坦和罗马尼亚签订的治理合约)来说，在阿联酋拥有固定的办事处是有好处的。

One aide insists Mr Blair is not seeking business contracts in the Middle East. While he has not yet signed on an office in Abu Dhabi, the aide says it would make sense to have a permanent presence in the UAE to service existing governance contracts, including with Kazakhstan and Romania.

然而，另一位熟悉布莱尔规划的人表示，布莱尔正在寻求扮演海湾与世界其他地区中间人的角色。他在中东最高级别的治理合约是2009年的帮助科威特改革首相办公室的合约，不过该项目在2012年被终止了。

Other people familiar with Mr Blair’s plans, however, say he is looking to act as an intermediary between the oil-rich Gulf and other parts of the world. His most high- profile governance contract in the Middle East was helping to reform the Kuwaiti prime minister’s office in 2009, but the project was closed down in 2012.

一位熟悉布莱尔的人表示：“布莱尔在中东为他的Tony Blair Associates(TBA)发现的商机要多多了。这家总部驻伦敦的商业公司的业务一方面是为企业提供咨询，另一方面则是为政府改革出谋划策。

“He sees a lot more business for Tony Blair Associates in this region, says a person who knows Mr Blair well. This is the London-based commercial arm offering advice to companies and counsel on reform to governments.

在布莱尔卸任首相之后的生涯中，2003年伊拉克战争的阴影依然若隐若现——尽管他赢得了这场战争。就在上周，由于为美国领导的这一侵略行为辩护，否认那次战争是伊拉克目前乱局的肇因，他同时遭到了英国右翼和左翼的批评。

The shadow of the 2003 Iraq war, which Mr Blair championed, still looms over his post-prime ministerial life. Last week he was criticised from Right and Left in Britain after he defended the US-led invasion against charges it paved the way for the current convulsions in Iraq.

这一争议并未阻止他动用关系网巩固与中东地区的友谊，这其中就包括了与英国关系不佳的阿布扎比。因英国对当地伊斯兰政党态度不够强硬，阿布扎比与英国的关系变得紧张。

The controversy has not prevented him from using his web of contacts to cement friendships in the region including in Abu Dhabi where relations with the UK have frayed over Britain’s less hostile stance towards regional Islamist parties.

和阿布扎比政府一样，布莱尔去年也曾公开支持埃及军事政变，他在最近一次讲话中称那次政变“是十分必要的一次救国行动。发生在埃及的那次政变颠覆了来自穆斯林兄弟会的民选总统。

Like the government in Abu Dhabi, Mr Blair has spoken out in support of last year’s military coup in Egypt, which toppled an elected president from the Brotherhood, describing it in a recent speech as a “necessary rescue of a nation.

长期以来，布莱尔始终明确他笃信对中东应持有一定立场，并表示他对中东的观察视角基于现代性与激进伊斯兰主义间的冲突。今年4月，在彭博社(Bloomberg)的一次演讲中，他表示中东发生的事代表着“21世纪初全球安全的最大威胁。

Mr Blair has long made clear he believes in taking sides in the Middle East and that he sees the region through the prism of a conflict between modernity and radical Islam. In his speech at Bloomberg in April, he said what was happening in the region represented “the biggest threat to global security in the early 21st century.

他还提议要支持海湾国家的政府，即便这些政府大多是独裁政府，且对异议者零容忍。不过，在布莱尔看来，这些西方国家的盟友“正在推行宗教宽容的价值观，以及那种把经济建立在规则和开放基础上的价值观。

He also called for supporting governments in the Gulf – even though they are for the most part autocratic and intolerant of dissent. In Mr Blair’s view, however, these western allies are “promoting the values of religious tolerance and open, rule-based economies.

随着阿布扎比与英国的关系日益紧张，对阿联酋来说，布莱尔已成为日益重要的联系人。

Since Egypt’s coup last year, the Brotherhood, an 80-year old organisation with followers across the region, has faced relentless repression.

2011年阿拉伯之春之后，阿布扎比对于伊斯兰政党的掌权十分不安，还曾发表官方声明指控穆斯林兄弟会试图在阿联酋招惹麻烦。另一方面，英国却始终愿意与中东民选政府打交道——不论该政府的政治取向如何。

People with knowledge of the report on the Brotherhood say Mr Blair is helping Abu Dhabi advise Egypt’s Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the new president who led last year’s coup, on economic reform. Mr Blair held talks with Mr Sisi in January.

对此，阿布扎比曾通过商业和政治方面的压力表达他们的不快。

“Abu Dhabi officials want Blair to help convince Sisi on economic reforms. Sisi can be impressed by Blair, said one person familiar with the matter.

今年初，英国曾为三名Islah组织成员提供政治庇护，这令英国与阿联酋的关系更加紧张，因为阿联酋政府曾宣布该组织与穆斯林兄弟会有联系。

The Blair report is separate from a UK government inquiry into the Brotherhood, which was announced by David Cameron, the prime minister, in March. Western diplomats say the move followed Abu Dhabi pressure on London to take a tougher stance towards the Islamist group. The government probe is unlikely to recommend measures that will satisfy Abu Dhabi, such as a ban on the organisation.

据最近拜会过谢赫•穆罕默德的人说，他对英国政府“充满愤怒——这种状况令布莱尔及其更为讨巧的态度愈发有价值。

One diplomat familiar with Mr Blair’s report says it will be used to “inform the British public and other western nations about the “dangers of the Brotherhood.