研究：欧洲的封锁措施已拯救了320万人

英国的一项研究估计，如果没有采取封锁措施，截至五月初欧洲将会有320万人因新冠病毒而丧命。与此同时，美国的另一项研究指出，中国、韩国、伊朗、法国和美国的封锁措施已拯救了5.3亿个生命。

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Lockdowns have saved more than three million lives from coronavirus in Europe, a study estimates.

一项研究估计，欧洲的封锁措施使得三百多万人免遭死于新冠肺炎的命运。

The team at Imperial College London said the "death toll would have been huge" without lockdown.

帝国理工学院的研究团队称，如果没有实行封锁，“死亡人数会很多”。

But they warned that only a small proportion of people had been infected and we were still only "at the beginning of the pandemic".

但是他们警告称，只有一小部分人被感染了，“这场疫情才刚开始”。

Another study argued global lockdowns had "saved more lives, in a shorter period of time, than ever before".

另外一项研究指出，全球性的封锁措施“在比以往都更短的时间内拯救了更多生命”。

The Imperial study assessed the impact of restrictions in 11 European countries - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK - up to the beginning of May.

帝国理工学院的这项研究评估了奥地利、比利时、丹麦、法国、德国、意大利、挪威、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士和英国这11个欧洲国家的封锁限制措施截至五月初的效果。

By that time, around 130,000 people had died from coronavirus in those countries.

截至五月初，这些国家约有13万人已死于新冠肺炎。

The researchers used disease modelling to predict how many deaths there would have been if lockdown had not happened. And the work comes from the same group that guided the UK's decision to go into lockdown.

研究人员运用疾病模型来预测，如果没有封锁措施，会有多少人死亡。这项研究是由指导英国采取封锁决定的同一团队开展的。

They estimated 3.2 million people would have died by 4 May if not for measures such as closing businesses and telling people to stay at home.

他们估计，如果没有采取停业居家令等措施，5月4日前可能有320万人死亡。

That meant lockdown saved around 3.1 million lives, including 470,000 in the UK, 690,000 in France and 630,000 in Italy, the report in the journal Nature shows.

这项发表在《自然》期刊上的研究报告显示，这意味着封锁措施拯救了约310万条生命，包括英国的47万人、法国的69万人、意大利的63万人。

"Lockdown averted millions of deaths, those deaths would have been a tragedy," said Dr Seth Flaxman, from Imperial.

来自帝国理工学院的赛斯·弗拉克斯曼博士说：“封锁措施避免了数百万人死亡，否则，这些人的死亡将会是悲剧。”

Their equations made several assumptions, which will affect the figures.

他们的运算方式做了几个可能会影响数据的假设。

They assume nobody would have changed their behaviour in response to the Covid threat without a lockdown - and that hospitals would not be overwhelmed resulting in a surge in deaths, which nearly happened in some countries.

他们假设在没有实行封锁的情况下，没有人会改变自身行为来应对疫情，并假设不会因医院不堪重负而导致死亡率暴增，而这一情形在一些国家差点发生了。

The study also does not take into account the health consequences of lockdowns that may take years to fully uncover.

这项研究也没有将封锁对健康的影响考虑在内，这些影响可能要等多年过后才会完全显现。

The model also predicted that the outbreak would be nearly over by now without lockdown, as so many people would have been infected.

该模型还预测，如果没有封锁措施，疫情可能已经接近尾声，因为很多人都已经被感染。

More than seven in 10 people in the UK would have had Covid, leading to herd immunity and the virus no longer spreading.

在这种假设下，英国百分之七十以上的人都已感染新冠病毒，结果就是群体免疫，病毒也不再传播。

Instead, the researchers estimate that up to 15 million people across Europe had been infected by the beginning of May.

研究人员估计，按此预测，到五月初欧洲各国会有多达1500万人已感染病毒。

The researchers say at most, 4% of the population in those countries had been infected.

研究人员表示，如今这些国家至多有4%的人口被感染。

"Claims this is all over can be firmly rejected. We are only at the beginning of this pandemic," said Dr Flaxman.

弗拉克斯曼博士说：“我们可以坚决地否定疫情已经结束的论调。现在这场疫情才刚刚开始。”

And it means that as lockdowns start to lift, there is the risk the virus could start to spread again.

这意味着随着封锁措施开始解除，病毒又可能开始传播。

"There is a very real risk if mobility goes back up there could be a second wave coming reasonably soon, in the next month or two," said Dr Samir Bhatt.

萨米尔·巴特博士说：“如果人口流动性增加，这一风险真的很大，不久后 mobility[moʊˈbɪləti]: n. 流动性

Meanwhile, a separate study by University of California, Berkeley, analysed the impact of lockdowns in China, South Korea, Iran, France and the US.

与此同时，加州大学伯克利分校的一项独立研究分析了中国、韩国、伊朗、法国和美国封锁的效果。

Their report, also in Nature, says lockdown prevented 530 million infections in those countries.

这份同样发表在《自然》期刊上的研究报告称，这些国家的封锁措施防止了5.3亿人被感染。

Just before lockdowns were introduced, they said cases were doubling every two days.

据称，就在采取封锁措施前，这些国家的病例每两天就翻一番。

Dr Solomon Hsiang, one of the researchers, said coronavirus had been a "real human tragedy" but the global action to stop the spread of the virus had "saved more lives, in a shorter period of time, than ever before".

其中一名研究人员所罗门·向博士表示，新冠病毒是一个“真正的人类悲剧”，但是阻止病毒传播的全球行动已经“在比以往都更短的时间内拯救了更多生命”。