比尔·盖茨：距离疫情结束还早 美国检测不足

疫情已过半？比尔·盖茨表示，我倒很想这么说，但可惜不能！在最近的一次访谈中，盖茨预测，距离疫情结束还有很长一段时间，最快需要18个月才能研发出疫苗，人们只能先回到“半正常”生活方式。

Bill Gates, Co-Chair of Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, attends a conversation at the 2019 New Economy Forum in Beijing, China November 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jason Lee

Billionaire Bill Gates continues to be one of the most outspoken public figures on the subject of coronavirus, which the Microsoft co-founder has dubbed “the first modern pandemic.”

亿万富翁比尔·盖茨依然是在新冠病毒话题上最直言不讳的公众人物之一，这位微软联合创始人将这次疫情称为“现代首次大流行病”。

Gates has also made it clear that he sees the pandemic as a “nightmare” and an era-defining event whose effects will linger for years. “It’s going to be awhile before things go back to normal,” Gates said in a new interview on Friday with NBC’s Savannah Guthrie on the “TODAY” show.

盖茨还明确表示，他认为这场大流行病是一个“噩梦”和这一时代的标志性事件，其后果会延续数年。上周五盖茨在《今日》秀的新访谈中对NBC电视台主持人萨瓦娜·格斯里说：“还要等上一段时间生活才能回到正轨。”

"I wish I could say that we’re halfway through. But I don’t think so,” Gates added.

盖茨补充道：“我真希望我能说疫情进程已经过半。但我不这么认为。”

That’s because the billionaire believes the United States is still several months, if not years, away from large-scale production of a coronavirus vaccine. Still, he is hopeful that a vaccine will arrive sooner, rather than later.

这是因为盖茨认为美国还需要数个月 "Usually a vaccine takes over five years because you have many steps,” Gates said in the interview on Friday, noting that vaccine development starts with animal testing before moving on to human testing at larger and larger scales.

盖茨在上周五的访谈中说：“通常一种疫苗研发出来需要五年以上的时间，因为需要很多步骤。”他指出疫苗研发先要经过动物试验，然后才能进行人体试验，并逐渐扩大范围。

However, Gates added that he’s seen evidence to suggest that a coronavirus vaccine could be available within the government’s stated likely timeline of 18 to 24 months. “The best scientists [are] working hard on this,” Gates told Guthrie. “In fact, in the last few weeks I’ve seen signs that we may get to the optimistic side of that time projection” for a vaccine.

不过，盖茨补充道，他见过的案例显示，新冠疫苗有可能在政府所说的18到24个月的时间内研发出来。盖茨告诉格斯里说：“最厉害的科学家们正在努力研发疫苗。事实上，过去几周我看到的迹象表明，我们有可能在18个月内研发出来”。

That estimate echoed what Gates wrote in a post on his personal GatesNotes blog on Thursday. Gates wrote in the post that vaccine timelines could range anywhere from just nine months to two years, but he believes an 18-month wait is more likely, which would mean a vaccine could be widely available sometime in the middle of 2021.

这一预测与盖茨上周四在个人博客“盖茨笔记”中发的帖子内容是一致的。盖茨在帖子中写道，研发疫苗的时间短则9个月，长则两年，但他认为更可能是18个月，这意味着新冠疫苗将在2021年年中投入大规模生产。

So far, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has committed $250 million in funding to help the world develop an effective coronavirus vaccine, which he wrote in his blog post is “the only way to return the world to where it was before COVID-19 showed up.”

迄今为止，比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会已经投资2.5亿美元 Gates also remains critical of the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. In March, Gates said the US “did not act fast enough to have an ability to avoid the [coronavirus] shutdown,” and he called President Trump’s decision to defund the World Health Organization (WHO) “as dangerous as it sounds.”

对于美国政府对新冠疫情的应对，盖茨仍然持批评态度。三月份，盖茨曾说过，美国“对疫情反应不够快，错失了避免封锁的机会。”他还指出，特朗普总统决定从世界卫生组织撤资“和听起来一样危险”。

In the interview with “Today”, Gates called out the US government for not ramping up testing for COVID-19 as effectively as other countries.

在《今日》秀的访谈中，盖茨批评美国政府没有像其他国家一样有效加强对新冠肺炎的检测。

ramp up: 增加；使增加

"Many countries decided that at the national level, they would orchestrate the testing” for COVID-19, he said. “That hasn’t happened in the United States. It might not happen. But, you know, the access to tests is just, you know, chaotic.”

他说：“许多国家决定从国家层面统筹安排新冠肺炎检测。但美国不是如此，也可能不会发生。但是，你知道，现在获得检测的渠道很混乱。”

Gates laid out what he believes the US government needs to do to step up testing measures in his blog post on Thursday. These steps include developing COVID-19 tests that can return results in less than a day, as well as providing tests to all health care workers and finding a way for people to take tests in their own homes.

盖茨上周四在博客帖子中写道，他认为美国政府需要加强检测措施。这些措施包括研究出可以在一天时间内得出结果的检测方法，以及向所有医疗工作者提供检测服务，并设法让人们可以在家里进行检测。

"Testing becomes extremely important as a country considers opening up,” Gates wrote, noting that most developed countries will be able to start considering reopening daily life — returning to a “semi-normal” way of life that still includes social-distancing practices — within the next two months.

盖茨写道：“随着国家考虑放松封锁，检测变得极为重要。”他指出大多数发达国家将能在未来两个月内开始考虑重新开启日常生活——回到一种需要社交隔离的“半正常”生活方式。