希腊退出与中国放缓

There has been much discussion about the potential impact on the global economy of a Greek exit from the eurozone. Less debated is what effect a softening of Chinese demand, particularly for raw materials, could have on parts of the global economy.

关于希腊退出欧元区可能对全球经济产生何种影响，人们已经进行了不少的讨论。但人们较少讨论的是，中国需求（尤其是对原材料的需求）放缓可能对全球经济的某些部分产生何种影响。

A Chinese slowdown is likely to be less dramatic than a Greek exit. That is probably why no one has yet invented a silly term to match Grexit. (I’m offering “Chindown, as in “keeping one’s chin down.) Given the weight of China’s economy and its importance to some commodity exporters, perhaps rather more thought should be given to the topic. After all, unlike a Grexit, which no one wants, Beijing has actually announced its intention to engineer a Chindown. China’s five-year plan, which runs to 2015, talks specifically of weaning the economy off investment-led, commodity-hungry growth and easing the annual rate of growth down to 8 per cent from the double digits of recent years.

中国需求放缓可能没有希腊退出欧元区那么富有戏剧性。或许正因如此，才尚未有人创出一个可与“Grexit（希腊退出欧元区）匹敌的无聊词汇。（我这里给出一个词“Chindown（中国放缓），还有点“keeping one’s chin down（泄气）的意味。）鉴于中国经济的分量及其对某些大宗商品出口国的重要影响，或许我们应该给予这个话题更多的思考。毕竟，与任何人都不希望出现的“Grexit不同，中国政府实际上已经宣布它打算策动一个“Chindown。在截止于2015年的“十二五规划里，中国明确提出要摆脱以投资主导的、需要消耗大量大宗商品的经济增长模式，并将年度经济增长率从近几年的两位数降至8%。

For several economies the stakes are high. Over the past 20 years, many countries’ trade with China has ballooned. In 1992 China accounted for a measly 0.9 per cent of Brazil’s trade. By 2010 that had shot up to 14 per cent. Other commodity producers have seen a similar explosion. Pakistan’s trade with China rose from 2.9 per cent to 13.5 per cent and India’s from 0.4 to 10.5 per cent.

对多个经济体而言，此事关系重大。在过去20年间，许多国家的对华贸易大幅增长。1992年，对华贸易在巴西对外贸易中所占比例仅为微不足道的0.9%。到2010年，这一比例飙升至14%。其他大宗商品生产国的对华贸易也出现了类似的爆炸式增长。对华贸易在巴基斯坦对外贸易中所占比例从2.9%升至13.5%，在印度对外贸易中所占比例则从0.4%升至10.5%。

As Europe and the US have stalled, China has become an alternative growth engine. A sort of feedback loop developed in which China bought commodities from countries that used the money to purchase Chinese manufactures. As a result, China has become the main trading partner of several countries, including Australia, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Angola and South Africa.

在欧洲和美国经济发展陷入停滞之时，中国已成为替代的增长引擎。一种反馈回路已经形成：中国从大宗商品生产国购买大宗商品，大宗商品生产国又用所得收入购买中国的制造产品。结果就是，中国已成为多个国家的主要贸易伙伴，包括澳大利亚、韩国、日本、菲律宾、巴西、智利、秘鲁、安哥拉和南非。

Some of these could be hurt as China slows. Not only would Chinese demand itself fall, but prices of the commodities it needs – oil, copper and iron ore – would also soften.

其中一些国家可能会受到中国需求放缓的不利影响。除了中国需求自身会放缓之外，它所需要的大宗商品（石油、铜和铁矿石）的价格也会下跌。

One country that stands to lose is Brazil. An article in Foreign Affairs by Ruchir Sharma*, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley, argues that Brazil’s recent success “rests on an extremely shaky premise: commodity prices. That is to say it relies, to a worrying degree, on China. A Chindown could mean the end of Brazil’s “magic moment, Mr Sharma says. The same applies to others. “China’s lagging growth signals the end of an era in which emerging markets experienced unusually rapid expansion.

巴西是可能遭受损失的国家之一。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)新兴市场主管鲁吉·夏尔马(Ruchir Sharma)发表在《外交》(Foreign Affairs)杂志上的一篇文章*指出，巴西近些年的成功“依赖于一个极其不可靠的前提：大宗商品价格。也就是说，巴西对中国的依赖达到了令人担忧的程度。夏尔马表示，“Chindown可能意味着巴西“神奇时刻的终结。这一结论也适用于其他国家。“中国经济增长放缓标志着新兴市场异乎寻常的快速增长时代的结束。

Another emerging market that fits the same pattern is Mongolia. China accounts for no less than 92 per cent of its exports, a percentage that may actually rise as a massive copper mine comes on stream later this year. Mongolia is making some efforts to diversify. It wants to send commodities thousands of miles to Russia’s Pacific coast even though its mines lie along the Chinese border. Ulan Bator’s extravagant plan to hedge its bets points to just how hard it may be for some countries to kick the China habit.

另一个符合这种模式的新兴市场国家是蒙古。对华出口在蒙古出口中所占的比例高达92%，随着今年晚些时候蒙古一座大型铜矿投产，这一比例实际上还可能上升。蒙古正努力使出口多元化。它希望将大宗商品发到数千英里之外的俄罗斯太平洋海岸，尽管它的矿山就位于蒙中边境附近。蒙古政府代价高昂的“对冲计划表明，一些国家若想摆脱对中国的依赖会是多么的艰难。

The list of China dependants is not restricted to the developing world. Australia is also reliant on China – or, more accurately, on the high commodity prices engendered by Chinese demand. Indeed, some of the big investments planned by mining companies on the basis of an endlessly hungry China are already being shelved. Marius Kloppers, chief executive of BHP Billiton, recently said the economics of some mining projects had changed, forcing it to put them on hold. Dylan Grice of Société Général put it thus: “If Chinese resource demand holds up, everything will probably be fine. But if it doesn’t, everything won’t be.

依赖中国的不仅仅是发展中国家。澳大利亚也依赖中国，或者更准确地说，依赖于中国需求催生的高昂大宗商品价格。实际上，矿业企业基于中国永无止境的需求而制定的某些重大投资计划已被搁置。必和必拓(BHP Billiton)首席执行官马利尤斯·科劳珀斯(Marius Kloppers)最近表示，某些采矿项目的盈利前景已经发生了变化，只得搁置。法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的迪伦·格赖斯(Dylan Grice)因此表示：“如果中国的资源需求保持强劲，或许一切都没有问题。但如果保持不住，那么一切都会出现问题。

A China slowdown need not be bad for everyone. Frederic Neumann, regional economist at HSBC, distinguishes between hard and soft commodities. A Chinese rebalancing could actually be good for soft commodities, such as wheat and soyabeans, if household spending were to rise. Brazil’s loss, in other words, could be Argentina’s gain. Other commodities, such as palm oil, used in processed foods, may also do better. That could benefit countries such as Malaysia, which has ramped up palm oil production in recent years, and Indonesia – although the latter also produces hard commodities including coal.

中国需求放缓不一定对所有国家来说都是坏事。汇丰(HSBC)亚太区经济学家范力民(Frederic Neumann)指出了硬性大宗商品和软性大宗商品的不同前景。如果家庭部门支出增长，中国经济的再平衡实际上或有利于小麦和大豆等软性大宗商品。换言之，巴西受损，阿根廷却可能获益。它还可能有利于用于食品加工的棕榈油等其他大宗商品。这可能会令马来西亚（该国近些年扩大了棕榈油生产）和印尼等国受益，尽管印尼也生产煤炭等硬性大宗商品。

On the other side of the ledger, some big oil importers could benefit from the weaker prices that a Chinese slowdown might produce.

另一方面，一些石油进口大国可能受益于中国需求放缓导致的油价下降。

If Greece goes, almost everyone will suffer. But as China slows, the impact is likely to be more mixed. Only for some will it spell the end of their magic moment.

如果希腊退出欧元区，几乎所有国家都会受到冲击。而中国需求放缓的影响可能更加复杂。对某些国家而言，这将意味着它们“神奇时刻的终结。

*‘Bearish on Brazil: The Commodity Slowdown and the End of the Magic Moment’, Foreign Affairs (May/June)

*《看空巴西：大宗商品需求放缓和神奇时刻的终结》(Bearish on Brazil: The Commodity Slowdown and the End of the Magic Moment)，发表于《外交》杂志5/6月刊