欧洲复兴开发银行：欧元区危机将殃及俄罗斯

Russia's economy is more vulnerable to the effects of the euro zone's fiscal and banking crises as commodity prices fall, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said Wednesday.

欧洲复兴开发银行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)周三说，随着大宗商品价格的下降，俄罗斯经济将更易受到欧元区财政和银行业危机的影响。

Starting in October, the EBRD slashed growth forecasts for eight economies in Central Europe, or CEB, and the Baltics and seven economies in Southeastern Europe, or SEE, citing their close trade and financial links to the euro zone.

去年10月份以来，欧洲复兴开发银行先后下调了对中欧八国、波罗的海国家和欧洲东南部七国的经济增长预期，它给出的理由是这些国家在贸易和金融方面与欧元区有紧密联系。

With strong growth elsewhere in the global economy supporting prices for oil and other raw materials, the EBRD's forecasts for Russia were largely unchanged. But in its latest report on the outlook for the economies in which it invests, the bank said the impact of the currency area's prolonged crisis will spread further east and drag Russia down.

由于世界其他地区的强劲增长一直在支撑着石油和其他原材料的价格，过去，欧洲复兴开发银行基本上没有调整过对俄罗斯经济增长的预期。但该机构在一份对其投资目的地国经济前景的最新展望报告中指出，欧元区旷日持久危机的影响将会东扩，并会把俄罗斯拖下水。

'The negative spillovers are reaching east, and to Russia in particular through two main channels: lower commodity prices and a general reduction in risk appetite,' said Piroska Nagy, the EBRD's director for country strategy and policy.

欧洲复兴开发银行国家策略和政策主任纳吉(Piroska Nagy)说，欧元区的消极影响正在向东蔓延，并波及到俄罗斯，这个过程主要通过两个渠道进行：大宗商品价格的下降和风险偏好的普遍降低。

In May, the EBRD forecast that Russia's economy would grow 4.2% this year and 4.3% in 2013, roughly in line with the 4.3% expansion it posted in 2011. In the bank's latest report, those forecasts were slashed to 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively.

欧洲复兴开发银行今年5月预测，俄罗斯经济今年将以4.2%的速度增长，2013年的增长速度为4.3%，基本上与该机构在2011年发布的预测一致，当时它预测俄罗斯经济今明两年都将增长4.3%。在欧洲复兴开发银行的最新报告中，这两个数字分别被下调到了3.1%和3.3%。

On Friday, Russian Economic Development Minister Andrei Belousov said the government expects the economy to grow by between 3.8% and 4% this year, having earlier forecast it would grow by 3.4%.

上周五，俄罗斯经济发展部部长贝洛索夫(Andrei Belousov)称，俄罗斯政府预计今年的经济增速将在3.8%到4%之间，而此前的预期为3.4%。

The EBRD warning follows a report by Moody's Investors Service on Monday that said the Russian economy could contract 5% over the next 10 to 12 months and the ruble could depreciate 30% if the euro-zone crisis intensifies.

欧洲复兴开发银行发出警告之前，穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service Inc.)周一发布报告称，如果欧元区危机继续恶化，俄罗斯经济有可能在未来10到12个月内收缩5%，俄罗斯货币卢布可能贬值30%。

Russia on Monday reaffirmed its support for the currency area.

俄罗斯方面周一重申了对欧元区的支持。

'We hold 40% of our gold and forex reserves in euros, and structurally we're not lowering that level of our reserves, and some of these reserves have been invested in the government securities of European states,' President Vladimir Putin said. 'We're not changing anything, we believe in the fundamental possibilities of the European economy.'

俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)说，我们的黄金和外汇储备中有40%是欧元，从结构上说我们没有降低欧元在这一储备中的占比，这些储备中的一些已经被投资于欧洲国家的政府债券。我们不会改变做法，我们相信欧洲经济的基本面。

The EBRD's projections are based on the assumption that the euro zone 'muddles through' its crisis, neither resolving it in the near term, nor letting a major economy such as Italy or Spain lose access to international bond markets, leading to failures in a number of large banks.

欧洲复兴开发银行是基于如下假设做出上述预期的，即欧元区既没有在近期解决危机，也没有让意大利和西班牙等主要经济体失去进入国际债券市场的渠道、进而导致一些大型银行破产。

The development bank warned that should the crisis intensify, its forecast for growth in Russia and elsewhere would be even lower. 'Substantially lower commodity prices in the downside scenario would also cause a severe slowdown in Russia and other commodity exporters.'

欧洲复兴开发银行警告说，一旦危机加剧，该机构将会进一步下调对俄罗斯和其他国家的经济增长预期。该机构说，在这种恶劣的形势下，大宗商品价格的大幅下降也会导致俄罗斯以及其他大宗商品出口国的经济增长严重减速。