IMF调降全球经济增长预测

The failure of US and eurozone policy makers to tackle their fiscal woes is threatening an already “slow and bumpy global economic recovery, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称，美欧决策者未能解决其财政困境，正危及已经“缓慢且不稳定的全球经济复苏。

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF downgraded its forecasts for global growth next year and provided ammunition to critics of austerity, concluding that governments have systematically underestimated the damage done to growth by tax rises and spending cuts.

在其最新《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中，IMF调降了明年的全球增长预测，并给财政紧缩的批评者们提供了弹药，IMF得出结论称，各国政府系统性地低估了增税和削减支出对增长造成的破坏。

The IMF now believes that economic output will expand by 3.6 per cent, down from its July estimate of 3.9 per cent.

IMF现在认为，全球经济产出将增长3.6%，低于7月份的3.9%的预测。

But this assumes that the US Congress will take action to avoid the “fiscal cliff – the automatic expiry of tax cuts and introduction of spending reductions next year – and that eurozone governments will follow the European Central Bank’s plan to buy sovereign debt by committing to economic reform and closer integration.

但假设条件是，美国国会将采取措施避免坠入“财政悬崖——明年减税措施自动失效，削减支出措施自动生效，同时欧元区各国政府将通过致力于经济改革和推进一体化，配合欧洲央行(ECB)购买主权债务的计划。

“A key issue is whether the global economy is just hitting another bout of turbulence in what was always expected to be a slow and bumpy recovery or whether the current slowdown has a more lasting component, the IMF said.

IMF表示：“关键的问题是全球经济是仅仅在一直被预测为缓慢且不稳定的复苏过程中出现另一轮动荡，还是当前的放缓存在更持久性的因素。

“The answer depends on whether European and US policy makers can deal proactively with their major short-term economic challenges.

“答案取决于欧美政策制定者能否积极应对其主要短期经济挑战。

Economic uncertainty would continue to weigh on output in both advanced and emerging markets, though the IMF remained comparatively upbeat on the outlook for China.

经济不确定性将继续令发达和新兴市场国家的产出承压，不过，IMF对中国的前景相对乐观。

Growth estimates for China for this year and next were revised downwards by a fifth of a percentage point to 7.8 per cent and 8.2 per cent respectively, but the IMF believed there would be a soft landing for the world’s second-largest economy, along with the rest of the region.

IMF对中国今年和明年的增长预测被下调0.2个百分点，分别达到7.8%和8.2%，但IMF认为，全球第二大经济体以及该地区其他国家将出现软着陆。

“The outlook is for a modest pick-up in growth on the back of recent policy easing, the IMF said. The IMF slashed its forecast for the UK economy this year from growth of 0.2 per cent to a contraction of 0.4 per cent.

IMF表示：“受益于最近的政策宽松，（中国）经济增长将出现温和抬头。IMF将其对英国经济今年的预测从增长0.2%大幅调降至收缩0.4%。

The fund now expects growth of 1.1 per cent next year, down from an estimate of 1.4 per cent. The new forecasts are broadly in line with those of private sector economists.

IMF现在预测，明年英国经济将增长1.1%，低于之前1.4%的预测。最新预测基本上与私营部门经济学家的预测相符。

The fund points to new analysis showing that governments’ assumptions about the trade-off between fiscal consolidation and growth had been too favourable, and cutbacks would do more damage to output than their economic forecasts predicted.

IMF指出，新的分析显示，各国政府对于财政整固和经济增长之间取舍关系的假设过于乐观，削减支出对产出造成的损害要超过其经济预测的估计。