反击汇率战刻不容缓

The most overlooked cause of the economic weakness in the US and Europe is what we call the “global currency wars. If all currency intervention were to cease, we estimate that the US trade deficit would fall by $150bn-$300bn, or 1-2 per cent of gross domestic product. Between 1m and 2m jobs would be created. The eurozone would gain by a lesser but still substantial amount. Countries that were engaged in intervention could offset the impact on their economies by expanding domestic demand.

在导致美欧经济疲弱的原因中，最未引起重视的一条就是我们所称的“全球汇率战。我们估计，如果所有的汇率干预行动都停下来，美国的贸易赤字将减少1500亿至3000亿美元，相当于其国内生产总值(GDP)的1%至2%。此外，还将创造出100万至200万个就业岗位。欧元区也将获益，虽然其贸易赤字减少幅度和新增就业岗位不及美国，但仍将非常可观。那些以往干预汇率的国家，可通过扩大内需来平衡停止干预汇率对其经济造成的影响。

China is by far the largest currency aggressor but has not been the major perpetrator of late. Three distinct groups are now involved. First are other Asian countries, including Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand and Malaysia. Second are major oil exporters including the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Algeria. Third are rich countries near to the eurozone, most notably Switzerland but also Denmark and Israel. If Mitt Romney is elected US president, he will be able to label many countries as currency manipulators on his first day in the Oval Office, not just China, as he has promised.

中国是最大的汇率战发起国，但该国不是近期主要的作恶者。目前进行汇率干预的主要有三方力量。首先是中国以外的亚洲其他经济体，包括日本、新加坡、台湾、韩国、香港、泰国和马来西亚。其次是主要石油出口国，包括阿联酋、俄罗斯、挪威、沙特阿拉伯、科威特和阿尔及利亚。最后是位置靠近欧元区的富裕国家，最明显的是瑞士，也包括丹麦和以色列。如果米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)当选下任美国总统，他将有能力在入主白宫椭圆办公室(Oval Office)的第一天就把多个国家（不仅是中国）宣布为“汇率操纵国，正如他所承诺的那样。

These countries all exhibit rapidly growing levels of foreign currency reserves as well as significant current-account surpluses. They buy US dollars and euros to suppress the value of their own currencies, keeping the price of their exports down and the cost of their imports up. Thus they subsidise exports and tax imports, enabling them to maintain or increase trade surpluses and pile up foreign exchange reserves. These tactics, in effect, export unemployment to the rest of the world. China has largely curtailed its currency aggression, at least for now, but many other countries remain highly active.

上述经济体都体现出了外汇储备迅速增加、经常账户盈余非常高的特点。它们买入美元和欧元以压低本国货币汇率，从而降低出口价格并推高进口成本。就这样，它们一边补贴出口，一边对进口征税，使自身的贸易盈余得以维持或增加，并积攒下大量的外汇储备。实际上，这些手法的后果是向世界其他地区输出失业。起码就目前来说，中国基本上在干预汇率上有所收敛，但许多其他经济体却仍在大肆干预汇率。

The currency wars started a decade ago and led to record trade imbalances. US and European policy makers tried to counter the effects and save jobs by encouraging a housing bubble. When the bubble popped, jobs disappeared. The US and Europe then adopted monetary and fiscal stimulus measures but prolonged financial deleveraging has offset much of their impact.

始于十年前的汇率战，导致全球出现了前所未有的贸易失衡状况。美欧政策制定者曾尝试鼓励地产泡沫，借以抵消贸易失衡的影响并保住就业岗位。当泡沫破裂之时，工作机会大量蒸发。接着美国和欧洲采取了货币与财政刺激措施，但旷日持久的金融去杠杆化进程抵消了其中的大部分效果。

Some have criticised the US for fuelling the currency wars through its unconventional monetary policy known as quantitative easing. However, that US initiative is conducted entirely in dollars and is intended to boost consumption and investment within the US rather than to curb imports. Any impact on the exchange rate is secondary.

有些国家批评美国通过被称为“量化宽松的非常规货币政策，使汇率战愈演愈烈。然而，量化宽松完全是以美元进行的，意在刺激国内消费和投资，而并非抑制进口。量化宽松对美元汇率的影响是第二位的。

Moderate amounts of foreign exchange reserves help countries protect against adverse economic shocks. But reserve purchases by currency aggressors long ago exceeded the amounts that could be described as prudent. Governments in many developing economies and a few higher-income countries bought nearly $1.5tn of reserves and other foreign assets last year.

适当数额的外汇储备可以帮助国家抵御不利的经济冲击。但在很久之前，汇率干预国购买的外汇储备就已超过了可被称为“审慎的水平。去年，许多发展中国家和少数高收入国家的政府购入了接近1.5万亿美元的外汇储备和其他外国资产。

Our analysis suggests that the combined trade balances of countries actively purchasing foreign currency are $1tn higher as a result.

我们的分析显示，积极买入外汇的国家的贸易余额总和因此增加了1万亿美元。

What can be done? The rules of both the International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization forbid currency manipulation to maintain trade surpluses. These should be implemented at long last. Brazil has taken initiatives to this end and many other developing countries that run trade deficits, and lose from the currency wars, should join. The US and the eurozone should lead the effort. New bilateral and regional trade agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, should include such rules.

我们能采取何种措施？国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界贸易组织(WTO)，都制定了禁止操纵汇率以维持贸易盈余的规则。这些规则终究应当得到执行。巴西已朝着这个目标采取了相应措施，其他许多背负贸易赤字、在汇率战中失利的发展中国家也应效仿巴西。美国和欧元区应当在执行上述规则中发挥带头作用。《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)等新的双边和地区贸易协定，也应当吸收这样的规则。

If the preferred multilateral remedies continue to fail, revealing a huge gap in the international economic architecture, the aggrieved countries should act together to induce currency aggressors to mend their ways. The most direct action would be countervailing currency intervention through which the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank buy foreign currencies to offset the exchange rate impact of others’ aggression. Another option would be a surcharge on imports from currency aggressors, as adopted unilaterally by the US in 1971. A third approach would be to impose a transactions tax or a withholding tax on US and European assets accumulated by the aggressors. Given the huge costs of currency aggression, such measures may become necessary to resolve this global systemic problem and allow recovery in the US and Europe.

如果理想的多边措施仍无法奏效，反映出当今国际经济架构存在巨大缺陷，那么受到侵害的国家应当携手合作，迫使汇率干预国改正自己的做法。最直接的措施将是对汇率干预发起反击，美联储(Fed)和欧洲央行(ECB)都买入外汇来平衡其他国家干预汇率造成的影响。第二种措施是对来自汇率干预国的进口征收额外费用，就像美国在1971年单方面所做的那样。第三种措施是对汇率干预国积累的美国和欧洲资产征收交易税或者代扣所得税。鉴于汇率战将造成巨大的代价，这几种措施对于解决这一全球系统性问题、使美欧实现复苏可能是必不可少的。

The writers are respectively the director and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics

本文作者分别为美国彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)所长和高级研究员