开放A股市场的机遇

The recent announcement that the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expanding quotas for foreign investment sends a clear message to international investors that the Chinese government is committed to opening up its capital markets further. The amount available for qualified foreign institutional investors, or QFII, was raised by $50bn, taking the total to $80bn, an unprecedented step for the Chinese authorities.

中国证监会不久前宣布，将提高外资在A股市场的投资额度。此举向国际投资者明确地表明，中国政府致力于进一步开放国内资本市常合资境外机构投资者(QFII)的投资额度提高了500亿美元，总额度因此增至800亿美元。中国当局采取的这一举措可谓史无前例。

The QFII programme has been in existence since 2002 and is the only way for overseas investors to get access to China’s growing domestic A-shares market. Listed on two exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, A-shares are denominated in renminbi and almost entirely owned by domestic investors. Far from a being a niche local market, the total A-shares market is the second largest in the world, with only the New York Stock Exchange surpassing it.

QFII计划自2002年起就已启动，它也是海外投资者对中国国内不断成长的A股市场进行投资的唯一途径。A股以人民币计价，在上海和深圳两个交易所挂牌交易，几乎全部由中国国内投资者持有。A股市场绝非一个小型本地市场，它的总规模位居全球第二，仅次于纽约证交所(NYSE)。

Of course this is not the only way of investing in Chinese equities: overseas investors are familiar with the H-shares and red chips traded on the Hong Kong market, which are freely accessible to international investors, but these are much smaller compared with A-shares, which make up over 75 per cent of Chinese market capitalisation.

当然，它并非人们投资中国股市的唯一途径：海外投资者对香港市场上交易的H股和红筹股并不陌生，因为他们可自由交易这些股票，但同A股比起来，H股和红筹股的规模要小得多。A股的规模占到中国股市总市值的75%以上。

Following several decades of strong economic growth, the population is getting wealthier. The future growth trajectory for the Chinese economy should be less dependent on exports (“Made in China) and more dependent on domestic consumption (“Made for China). Whereas in the past Chinese manufacturers have focused on producing goods as cheaply as possible, this shift should mean the emphasis will move to more value-added industries, including IT, healthcare and consumer services.

在经济强劲增长几十年之后，中国人变得越来越富有。中国未来的经济增长轨迹应当降低对出口（“中国制造）的依赖，而更加依仗国内消费（“为中国制造）。过去，中国制造商的精力主要放在尽可能地压低生产成本上。这一次的转型应当意味着，重心将转移到IT、医疗和消费者服务等更具增值性的行业。

Because of the size and diversity of the market, A-shares have more exposure to these important trends than offshore Chinese equity markets. There are more than 2,000 companies listed on the A-share market, among them some of the fastest growing in the world. The H-share market, meanwhile, has fewer than 200 issues, concentrated in energy, telecoms and financial services. These sectors have driven much of China’s growth in the past, but are less exposed to future domestic growth.

鉴于A股市场的规模和多样性，该市场比离岸中国股市场更易受到上述重要趋势的影响。A股市场的上市公司超过2000家，其中许多公司的成长速度位居全球前列。而在H股市场上市的中国公司不足200家，且都集中在能源、电信和金融服务行业。这些行业过去曾是推动中国经济增长的主要引擎，但在未来，它们与中国国内增长的关系将会减弱。

In order to get permission to trade in China’s A-share market, qualifying overseas institutions need to apply for a QFII licence, and are then assigned a quota; 142 companies have been awarded a QFII licence so far, with quotas worth $22.2bn, as of January.

合格境外机构若想获准在中国A股市场进行交易，首先需要申请QFII牌照，而后会被分配一个投资额度；迄今为止，已有142家公司被授予QFII牌照，至今年1月，投资总额度达222亿美元。

With exciting opportunities come challenges and risks. The China A-share market is heavily regulated and still relatively closed to international capital flows. This means government policy can still play a large part in influencing investor sentiment and the market’s performance. In addition, corporate governance and accounting policies are often a cause for concern for overseas investors. The risks in this area can be mitigated by working with an investment manager with on-the-ground research capabilities and access to local management.

令人振奋的机遇当然也伴随着挑战和风险。A股市场受到严格管制，并且仍未向国际资本流动彻底敞开大门。这意味着，政府政策在影响投资者情绪和股市表现方面仍发挥着重要作用。此外，公司治理和会计政策也常常成为海外投资者担忧的问题。通过与具有实地研究能力且能接触到当地管理层的投资管理公司合作，国际资本可降低这方面的风险。

While China’s status as an economic powerhouse is well established, its size is not yet reflected in global equity indices.

尽管中国作为经济龙头的地位已很稳固，但其经济规模尚未反映在全球股指中。

Because of the restrictions placed on overseas investors, at present Chinese equities make up only 2 per cent of the MSCI Global index. Fast forward 10 years, and they are predicted to make up around 9 per cent of the index.

由于中国对海外投资者施以种种限制，中国股目前仅占摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数(MSCI World index)的2%。若将时间快进到10年后，届时中国股占该指数的比例预计将达到约9%。

This structural shift will be driven by organic market growth and the internationalisation of the A-share market. By this point the asset class is likely to be one that institutional investors cannot ignore.

这种结构性转型将受到市场有机增长和A股市场国际化的推动。就这点而言，A股很可能会成为机构投资者不能忽视的资产类别之一。

Underpinning the long-term story, the short-term outlook also looks positive. Having historically traded at a premium to the H-share market, following a tough couple of years, the A-share market is now trading at potentially attractive levels.

不但长期前景有保障，短期前景也很乐观。以往，A股相对H股存在溢价，但在经历了两三年的困难期之后，现在A股市场的价格可能到了有吸引力的价位。

Price/book valuations are close to historic lows, even though corporate profitability is improving structurally. At the same time, the macro-economic background looks supportive, as inflation is falling and the policy easing cycle has begun.

A股的市账率正逼近历史最低水平，尽管公司盈利能力正呈现结构性改善。同时，随着通胀回落和政策放松周期启动，宏观经济基本面看来也是利好。

The Chinese government has sent its strongest signal yet that it is willing to open up more to overseas capital inflows. Institutional investors would do well to take a closer look at this unique opportunity.

中国政府已发出迄今为止最强烈的信号，表明自己愿意在更大程度上向海外资金流入敞开大门。机构投资者最好能更加仔细地研究一下这个独一无二的机会。

Steve Lee is chief executive of HSBC Jintrust Fund Management (China)

本文作者为汇丰晋信基金管理公司(HSBC Jintrust Fund Management(China))总经理