美国共和党的致命伤

The most significant political story in America this year had nothing to do with politics. It was an article in The New York Times headlined “Whites account for under half of births in the US.

美国今年最惹人注目的政治资讯其实跟政治沾不上一点边。这篇文章刊登在《纽约时报》(The New York Times)上，题为《美国白人新生儿比例未能过半》。

If you want to understand the fear and rage that many Republican voters direct towards Barack Obama, some of it surely lies in the sense that the president represents “the other America – the non-white America that will eventually form a majority of the country’s population.

在诸多共和党选民对巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)的恐惧和愤怒中，一部分无疑来源于总统代表的是“另一个美国，即终将占据美国人口大多数的非白人族裔。

You can hear that anger in the popular slogan “I want my country back. You can see it in the demands at the party convention for ever tougher policies against illegal immigrants. You can catch traces of that anger in the racially-tinged denunciations of “Obamacare, which aims to extend healthcare to 44m uninsured Americans.

愤怒体现在人气标语“把我的国家还给我中，体现在党代会上要求制定更严厉的政策、加强管控非法移民的呼声中。旨在为4400万未参保美国人提供医疗的“奥巴马医改(Obamacare)受到含有种族色彩的攻击，其中也不难发现愤怒的影子。

America’s changing demographics and the politics surrounding them present a big strategic dilemma for the Republicans. One leading party strategist argues that the 2012 presidential election already comes down to a battle between economics and demographics. A weak economy and high unemployment favours the Republicans. But demographic trends favour the Democrats. The increasing Hispanic vote means three states George W.?Bush won in 2004 – Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico – are leaning towards Mr Obama.

美国不断变化的人口格局和与之相关的政治活动，为共和党人带来了重大战略难题。一位共和党高级战略家认为，2012年大选可归结为经济与人口之争。经济疲软和失业率高企对共和党有利，但人口变化趋势却对民主党有利。2004年乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)曾在内华达州、科罗拉多州和新墨西哥州凯旋，但拉丁裔选民数量增加意味着这三州将倒向奥巴马。

California, the largest state in the union and the home state of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, voted Republican in every presidential election from 1968 to 1988. But the Democrats have won it since 1992 and Mr Obama is safely ahead there. Many trace the change in the state’s allegiance to the Republicans’ increasingly strident attacks on illegal immigration.

加利福尼亚州是美国人口第一大州，也是理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)和罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)的故乡。加州在1968至1988年间每次都将选票投给了共和党，但1992年之后民主党在这里逢战必胜，目前奥巴马也牢牢占据主动。很多人认为，共和党对非法移民的攻击愈加刺耳，是该州倒戈的原因。

The most recent polls underline how badly Mitt Romney is doing among Hispanics. An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll last week showed Mr Obama leading among Hispanics by 63 per cent to 28 per cent. The Romney camp talk hopefully about boosting their share of the Hispanic vote to 38 per cent by polling day – but it is difficult to see how.

最近的民调更是体现了米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)有多么不受拉丁裔的欢迎。NBC和《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)上周的联合民调显示，奥巴马以63%比28%的支持率在拉丁裔选民中遥遥领先。罗姆尼阵营希望能在投票日将拉丁裔选民的支持率提高到38%，但很难拿出像样的办法。

There had been talk that the Republican candidate might select Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who is a Cuban-American, as his running mate. But, in the event, he went for Congressman Paul Ryan – whose selection appears, according to the polls, to have actually lessened the ticket’s appeal for Hispanic voters.

之前风传这位共和党候选人可能会选择佛罗里达州的古巴裔美国人、参议员马可·鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)作为竞选伙伴。结果，罗姆尼却相中众议员保罗·瑞安(Paul Ryan)，民调显示此举实际上令共和党对拉丁裔选民的吸引力下降。

The Republican convention in Tampa is set to adopt a party platform that takes a tough line on touchstone issues for Hispanic voters, in particular illegal immigration. It will call for the completion of a double-layer border fence with Mexico and the adoption of an electronic system, called E-Verify, which would require all employers to confirm the legal status of new hires. Even the majority of Hispanics, who have every right to live in America, tend to be opposed to policies that target illegals or threaten them with deportation.

共和党在坦帕的代表大会上制定党纲，就与拉丁裔选民、特别是非法移民相关的基本问题采取强硬路线，其中包括在美国与墨西哥边境建造双层围网，并引入名为E-Verify的电子系统，要求所有雇主确认新员工是否具有合法身份。即便是大部分在美拥有合法居住权的拉丁裔，也会抵触这些拿非法移民开刀、或是威胁将他们驱逐出境的政策。

During the primaries, Mr Romney pronounced himself in favour of “self-deportation – by which he means adopting employment laws so strict that illegal immigrants find it impossible to find work and choose to return home. As one Republican strategist sighs: “It’s tough to get people to vote for you when they think you don’t want them in the country in the first place.

初选时，罗姆尼称自己倾向于“自我驱逐——意即采用严格的就业法律，让非法移民无法找到工作而选择打道回府。一位共和党战略家哀叹道：“如果选民认为你从一开始就不想让他们留在这个国家，那么你也别指望他们给你投票。

Going into the convention, Mr Romney had drawn level with Mr Obama in many polls. He clearly has a good chance of victory. But if he fails, the Republicans’ chances of regaining the White House will grow worse with each election – unless they can do much better with minority voters in general and Hispanic voters in particular.

党代会刚刚召开时，罗姆尼在多项民调中与奥巴马不相上下，明显不乏胜算。但若他竞选失败，共和党重返白宫的机会将随着一次次的选举而越发微弱——除非他们大到能亲和整个少数族裔选民，小到拉拢拉丁裔的民心。

At present some 63 per cent of the American population is white. But, by around 2040, the country is likely to be “majority-minority. Hispanics currently represent 16 per cent of the American population. But 26 per cent of babies in the US last year were born to Hispanic families.

目前美国63%的人口为白人，但到2040年，该国可能会呈现少数族裔占据多数人口的局面。拉丁裔目前占据美国人口的16%，但其新生儿数量去年却占到全国的26%。

The Republicans risk getting trapped in a vicious circle. Because so many voters in their primaries are elderly “Anglos, who are upset by the changing demographics of the US, candidates for the Republican nomination are more or less compelled to adopt hardline stances on immigration. But these positions are likely to count heavily against them when they appeal to Hispanic voters in the general election.

共和党正顶着陷入恶性循环的危险。初选中有众多选民是年老的“正宗白人，美国人口格局的不断变化让他们心烦意乱，因此共和党提名候选人多多少少都不得不在移民方面采取强硬立常而在大选阶段拉拢拉丁裔选民时，这种立场就变成了重大负面因素。

Republicans comfort themselves that the allegiances of Hispanic voters could change over time. Many Hispanics have socially conservative views that could fit well with the modern Republican Party. Ted Cruz, the party’s candidate for the US Senate in Texas this November, is both Hispanic and a darling of the Tea Party movement.

共和党所聊以自慰的，是拉丁裔选民的口味可能会随着时间改变。很多拉丁裔选民社会立场保守，与现代共和党十分契合。今年11月份美国参议院德克萨斯州共和党候选人特德·克鲁斯(Ted Cruz)既是拉丁裔，也是“茶党运动的宠儿。

Candidates such as Mr Cruz and Mr Rubio hold out the hope of creating a Republican party that is much more attractive to Hispanic voters. However, the Republicans cannot assume that large numbers of Hispanics will come over to the party with the passage of the time. Political attitudes that are formed in the hard scrabble years, after people have first arrived in the US, can be very durable. A large majority of Jews still vote for the Democrats.

克鲁斯和鲁比奥这样的候选人，为共和党提高对拉丁裔选民的吸引力带来了一线希望。然而，共和党人不可藉此以为大批拉丁裔会随着时间推移倒向自己这边。第一代移民历尽艰难困苦所形成的政治观，可能是经久不衰的。绝大多数犹太人，如今仍在给民主党投票。

An inability to attract the votes of ethnic minorities in general – and Hispanics in particular – is a big disadvantage to the Republicans in this election but one the Romney-Ryan ticket could yet overcome. In future elections, it could be fatal. Mr Romney faces a very tough battle in the coming months. Future Republican candidates may conclude that he had it easy.

无法争取到少数族裔特别是拉丁裔的选票，是共和党在此次选举中的一大短板，不过罗姆尼和瑞安这对搭档或许还能应付。而在将来的选举中，这可能是一道致命伤。接下来数月，罗姆尼将面对一场硬仗，但以后的共和党候选人恐怕会作此结论：罗姆尼当年的日子太舒服了。