科学家预测了2018年全年的地震

The University of Montana geophysicist knows you may have read the articles warning about "swarms of devastating earthquakes" that will allegedly rock the planet next year thanks to a slowdown of the Earth's rotation. And she feels "very awful" if you've been alarmed.

由于地球转速减慢，明年将出现大量的强烈地震，许多文章称这些地震会撼动整个地球。蒙大拿大学的地理学家称，很多人都读过这些文章并且受到了警示，这真“让人不悦”。

Those dire threats are based on Bendick's research into patterns that might predict earthquakes - but claims of an impending "earthquake boom" are mostly sensationalism.

这些胆大妄言的警告都是基于Bendick对地球旋转模式的研究，这一研究结果预测了地震的出现——但是宣称人类面临“地震狂潮”的说法绝大程度都是耸人听闻。

Here is what the science actually says.There is no way to predict an individual earthquake. Earthquakes occur when potential energy stored along cracks in the planet's crust gets released, sending seismic waves through the Earth.

这位科学家确切的说法是这样的。目前没有办法预测单个的地震。当地壳断层中储蓄的势能被释放出来，向地表传送地震波时就会出现地震群。

Since scientists know where those cracks exist, and how they are likely to convulse, they can develop forecasts of the general threat for an area. But the forces that contribute to this energy buildup and trigger its release are global and complex, and we still cannot sort out exactly how it might unfold.

科学家们知道这些断层所在的位置，也了解地壳运动的模式，因而能够预测大体某一地区可能出现的地震。但是形成地震势能并激发势能释放的能量分布在全球各地，难以查寻，所以我们对这股能量如何释放还没有确切的了解。

Bendick and colleagues did find a curious correlation between clusters of certain earthquakes and periodic fluctuations in Earth's rotation.

Bendick和同事们发现地震群与地球转速的周期性浮动之间存在有趣的联系。

By examining the historic earthquake record and monitoring those fluctuations, scientists might be able to forecast years when earthquakes are more likely to occur, they suggest.

科学家们表示，通过察看历史上的地震记录并监视地球转速的浮动周期，他们将可以预测地震发生可能性较高的年份。

But that conclusion is by no means set in stone. It hasn't been demonstrated in the lab or confirmed by follow-up studies. Several scientists have said they're not yet convinced by Bendick's research.

但是这一研究结论并没有得到确证。它还没有经过实验室里的实验验证，也没有得到后续研究的证实。许多科学家都表示Bendick的研究成果并不能使他们信服。

Historically, the field of earthquake forecasting has seen some particularly outlandish claims.

历史上，为了预测地震，人们曾做过许多匪夷所思的尝试。

People have tried to predict temblors based on the behaviour of animals, gas emissions from rocks, low-frequency electric signals rippling through the Earth - all without much success.

人们曾试图根据动物的行为，岩石缝隙里泄露的气体，低频率的电磁场作用等来预测地震，但最终都未能成功。

For that reason, Bendick said, "it's a little bit scary to get into the game." But getting a prediction right can mean the difference between life and death for countless people. The stakes are too high not to try.

正因如此，Bendick说，“进入这个研究领域会让人有些惶恐。”但是，做出准确的预测对于数以万计的人来说是生死攸关的大事。这筹码太大了，让人不得不设身其中。

Earth is currently at the end of a slowing period, Bendick pointed out, and the historic record would indicate another "cluster" may be on its way.

地球目前正处于一个转速减缓的周期末端，Bendick说，根据历史上的记录推断，下一个地震群已经在路上了。

But that doesn't necessarily mean 2018 will be a particularly devastating year. For one thing, the kinds of temblors Bendick analysed happen in areas that are already earthquake-prone - Japan, New Zealand, the west coast of the United States. For people who live in those regions, there is always a risk of a quake, and it is always good to be prepared.

不过这并不意味着2018年会是灾难深重的一年。这样说的原因之一是，Bendick分析预测出的地震群发生的地点都是地震的高频地带——日本，新西兰，美国西海岸。对住在这些地区的人来说，他们总面临着地震的威胁，有备无患是很必要的。