难以预测的美元走势

Ask a currency trader in today’s market how the US dollar is likely to react to positive news on the economy and the response is likely to be a blank stare.

如果问一名当前汇市上的外汇交易员，经济利好的消息很可能对美元产生什么影响，对方很可能一脸茫然。

Just as the forex market has managed to wash its hands of the confusing question of how to trade the euro, a new conundrum has reared its head. The US dollar now has the dubious honour of being the currency that is the most difficult to predict, after defying expectations that it would get weaker when the Federal Reserve launched its third round of monetary easing, or QE3.

外汇市场刚刚摆脱了如何交易欧元这个令人困惑的问题，一个新的难题就抬头了。市场普遍预期，在美联储(Federal Reserve)推出第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)之后，美元将贬值，但美元的实际走势打碎了这种预期，美元得以荣膺“最难预测货币头衔。

“People have turned from euro speculation to dollar speculation since QE3 but that’s not working out as they hoped – people aren’t getting bang for their bucks, says Richard Usher, JPMorgan’s head of spot forex trading in London.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)伦敦即期外汇交易主管理查德·厄舍(Richard Usher)表示：“QE3出台之后，人们从投机欧元转向投机美元，但没有达到预期效果，他们没有赚到大钱。

“There’s an awful lot of money chasing dollars but it hasn’t been the best strategy.

“大量资金追捧美元，但这不是最佳策略。

Instead of weakening, the dollar has received support from investors seeking havens who are more worried about signs of slowing growth and the poor third-quarter earnings season.

美元不仅没有贬值，还从寻求避风港的投资者那里获得了支撑。经济增长下滑的迹象，以及第三季度各公司财报上的惨淡收益，都让这些投资者更加担心。

That has made it hard to predict which factor is more likely to affect the dollar on a given day. How to trade the dollar has become the key topic at daily meetings on trading floors as bankers try to decide how the currency will react to data.

因此，很难预测哪种因素在某一天对美元的影响更大。在交易大厅内的每日例会上，如何交易美元成为关键话题，银行家们试图弄明白美元将对经济数据做出什么反应。

“It’s a very popular question out there, says Alan Ruskin, head of forex research at Deutsche Bank in New York. “Does this mean that QE is not working? Or is it not working right now because other factors are interceding?

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)纽约外汇研究主管艾伦·拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)表示：“这是市场上一个非常普遍的问题。这是否意味着QE没有奏效？或者说，是否因为其他因素正在起作用，QE目前没有奏效？

The dollar has in recent years tended to get weaker on positive signs on the US economy because it is used as a funding currency by many investors. As risk appetite rises, investors move out of their dollars.

近年来，美国经济一旦显现出利好迹象，美元就趋向于贬值，这是因为很多投资者把美元当作融资货币。随着风险偏好加强，投资者开始抛出美元。

But QE3 has muddied the waters, traders say. After Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, said the central bank would flood financial markets with $40bn a month until the US economy turned a corner, some predicted that good US economic data would cause the dollar to strengthen as traders changed their views on how long the Fed’s easing stance would last.

但交易员表示，QE3把情况搞复杂了。美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)宣布，在美国经济好转之前，美联储每月将向金融市场注入400亿美元，随后有人预测，如果美国经济数据向好，将推高美元，因为交易员改变了对于美联储宽松立场将持续多久的看法。

On Friday, when figures showed the US economy grew by more than expected in the third quarter of the year, the dollar did indeed rise. But many argued that was in response to jitters over gloomy corporate earnings rather than speculation over the Fed’s intentions.

上周五，当数据显示今年第三季度美国经济增长高于预期时，美元确实上涨了。但很多人辩称，这反映出企业收入惨淡引起的不安情绪，而不是投机美联储意图的结果。

In fact, the dollar is now caught in a tug of war between QE3 on the one hand and fears over global growth on the other, leaving it in limbo.

事实上，美元正处于一场拉锯战之中，一面是QE3，一面是市场对全球经济增长前景的担忧，结果美元夹在中间，摇摆不定。

“The market reaction [to economic data] hasn’t been terribly consistent, says Steven Englander, head of forex research at Citigroup.

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“There’s still a risk-off environment and the dollar benefits from that.

花旗集团(Citigroup)外汇研究主管史蒂文·英格兰德(Steven Englander)表示：“市场（对经济数据）的反应并不一致。

Currency traders are comparing the frustration in the market over how to trade the US dollar with the euro crisis earlier this year, when hedge funds gave up trying to profit from falls in the single currency after getting their fingers burnt on the trade in 2011.

“依然存在避险的氛围，美元可以从中获益。

Speculators started shorting the dollar in droves after the Fed confirmed QE3 in September, putting on net short positions on the currency for the first time in a year, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Yet the dollar index has risen over the same six-week period.

外汇交易员认为，眼下市场对于如何交易美元的不知所措，与今年早些时候的欧元危机不相上下。当时对冲基金放弃了从欧元下跌中获利的努力，因为此前在2011年他们在这种交易中受创颇重。

In fact, the problems with the dollar are raising a wider issue for forex divisions at investment banks: their top investors are starting to vote with their feet. Just as the effect of the eurozone crisis on the euro made it difficult to predict how the single currency would trade, investors are now starting to avoid the dollar, too. FX heads and traders say hedge funds are giving up trying to make money in currencies and are instead trading interest rates and equities, which are seen as more predictable in the present market environment.

美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)数据显示，在美联储9月份确定推出QE3之后，投机者开始大批卖空美元，导致今年美元首次出现净空头头寸。但在相同的6周期间内，美元指数上涨。

That is a serious problem in a market where the US dollar makes up 86 per cent of all trades. Investment banks say volumes across the forex market have been falling, with some opting to cut prices for clients. Figures from EBS, the trading platform owned by ICAP, show a 39 per cent fall in daily forex volumes in September from the previous year.

事实上，围绕美元的疑惑在投行外汇部门引发了更为广泛的问题：它们的最主要投资者开始用脚投票。欧元区危机对欧元产生的影响使得人们很难预测欧元的走势，同样，投资者也开始规避美元。外汇主管和交易员表示，对冲基金正在放弃尝试从外汇交易中赚钱，转而从事利率和股票交易，在当前的市场环境下，利率和股票更容易预测。

There are some pockets of resilience. Hedge funds have shown a particular interest in the dollar-yen pair, with speculation that the Bank of Japan would add to its asset purchasing programme this week helping the dollar to rise more than 3 per cent against the yen in the past month.

在一个美元占据86%交易的市场上，这个问题很严重。投行表示，汇市交易量一直在下降，有些交易员选择降低报给客户的价格。英国毅联汇业(ICAP)旗下交易平台EBS的数据显示，9月份外汇日交易量同比下降39%。

Other traders are hoping that forex trading will pick up after the outcome of the US election. Some have been reacting to US economic data on the basis that stronger figures could make an Obama victory more likely. A Romney victory is widely seen as a dollar-positive outcome, partly because Mr Romney has voiced his dislike of loose monetary policy and partly because traders think his corporate tax breaks could encourage companies to repatriate foreign earnings.

不过市场中仍然存在富有活力的角落。对冲基金一直对美元-日元交易特别感兴趣，它们猜测，日本央行(Bank of Japan)本周将增加其资产购买计划，而这一猜测在过去一个月帮助把美元兑日元汇率推高了3%。

But many are opting not to throw another variable into the already uncertain mix.

还有一些交易员希望，外汇交易将在美国大选尘埃落定之后提速。针对美国经济数据，有些交易员一直以来的应对依据是，较强的经济数据将增加奥巴马(Obama)获胜的几率。但市场普遍将罗姆尼(Romney)获胜看作美元的利好因素，这部分是由于罗姆尼公开表示不支持宽松货币政策，部分是由于交易员认为他的企业减税方案可能鼓励企业将海外利润汇回美国。

“The FX market is in a holding pattern ahead of the US election and the dollar is washing around as people are uncertain as to the outcome, says Mark Johnson, global head of forex cash trading at HSBC.

但面对已经充满不确定性、各影响因素混杂的外汇市场，很多人选择不再平添其他变数。

“People are going to sit on their hands until it’s decided.

汇丰(HSBC)全球外汇现金交易主管马克·约翰逊(Mark Johnson)表示：“在美国大选落幕之前，外汇市场处于停滞状态，由于人们不确定选举结果，美元一直摇摆不定。

“人们按兵不动，静待结果。