博柏利开启奢侈品行业衰颓趋势

Harry Potter actress Emma Watson used to model for Burberry. The luxury-goods retailer could do with some magic now.

《哈利·波特》(Harry Potter)女演员爱玛·沃森(Emma Watson)曾给博柏利(Burberry)当过模特。现在这家奢侈品零售企业可能需要点魔法了。

Its shares slumped 21% Tuesday after a trading update signalled same-store sales were flat in the last 10 weeks against a year ago, and started to fall toward the end of that period. For investors, it is a sign that not even Burberry's famous trench coats can protect it from ill winds affecting the luxury sector, and that Europe isn't the only part of the global economy that is falling out of fashion.

周二该公司股价下跌21%，原因是它发布的报告显示过去10周同店销售额同比持平，并在接近这段时间的末尾时开始下降。在投资者看来，这说明即便是博柏利闻名于世的风衣，也无法为它遮挡奢侈品行业遭遇的寒风，而欧洲也不是全球经济中唯一一个不再风光的部分。

Certainly, slowing Asian growth─particularly in China─is causing a big problem. Burberry's sales drop has been broad-based geographically, it says.

亚洲、特别是中国经济增长的放缓无疑带来了大麻烦。博柏利说，销售额的下降在地理上呈普遍之势。

But Asia is now its most important and fastest-growing region, accounting for 37% of revenue in the year to the end of March, with sales rising 43% there. Wealthy consumers in China had previously proved resilient despite the country's growth slowdown. But political uncertainty there, especially since the downfall of Communist Party bigwig Bo Xilai, has made flaunting wealth more unacceptable. Chinese jet-setters have been travelling less, too, crimping Burberry's sales in Europe.

但目前亚洲是它最重要、增长最快的地区，在截至3月底的一年内贡献了37%的收入，销售额实现了43%的增长。之前中国富人的消费在本国增长放缓的情况下依然坚挺，这是有目共睹的。但由于中国政治形势的不确定性，特别是在党内高层官员薄熙来倒台后，炫耀性消费已经变得更加不可接受。中国富人的出行次数也减少了，打击了博柏利在欧洲的销售。

Sure, Burberry isn't alone in feeling a cooler breeze from Asia; it says other retailers are experiencing slower growth, too. Burberry is paying the price for being the first to deliver bad news. Still, the company has traded at a 15%-20% premium to its European luxury-goods peers in the last two years, according to UBS. Investors had been impressed with its sector-leading 16% average sales growth since 2007, after it changed its strategy to sell more high-end goods through a larger network of its own stores.

当然不止博柏利一家遭遇亚洲吹来的寒风。它说，其他零售企业的增长也在放缓。博柏利正在因第一个发布坏消息而付出代价。但据瑞银(UBS)说，过去两年博柏利股价相比欧洲奢侈品同行有15%到20%的溢价。从2007年以来，在改变策略、通过更庞大的自有门店网络出售更多高端产品之后，博柏利以平均每年16%的销售额增长引领行业之先，让投资者赞叹不已。

With sales growth disappearing, though, investors are rightly skeptical that Burberry can withstand an Asian economic slowdown any better than its rivals. After Tuesday's share price slump, Burberry now trades in line with its European peers at 14.5 times expected 2013 earnings, UBS says.

在销售额增长达不到预期的情况下，投资者有理由怀疑博柏利经受亚洲经济减速冲击的能力是否比竞争对手更强。瑞银说，在周二股价猛跌之后，现在博柏利对应2013年预期收益的市盈率为14.5倍，跟欧洲同行差不多。

Amid a realization that Asia alone can't support luxury-goods sales, Burberry could find itself in a pack whose shares have still further to fall.

随着投资者意识到亚洲无法独自支撑奢侈品销售，博柏利的股价或许会跟另外多家公司一样，还有进一步下跌的空间。