中国政策前景短期内并不明朗

China's government is set to ease policy, but not as much as the interest-rate and currency markets believe.

中国政府将放宽政策，不过政策放宽的幅度不像利率和外汇市场所认为的那样大。

The latest indications are that China's growth remains lackluster. Purchasing Managers Index numbers for July showed the manufacturing sector flatlining. Rumors in the Chinese press put new loans for that month at about 700 billion yuan ($109 billion), down from CNY919 billion in June.

最新的迹象是中国经济增长仍然低迷。7月采购经理人指数(PMI)显示制造业活动低迷。中国媒体上流传的说法是，7月新增贷款规模约为人民币7,000亿元（约合1,090亿美元），低于6月人民币9,190亿元的规模。

The question is, how much more stimulus will the government have to introduce to keep growth above the 7.5% target for the year? Chinese firms are betting the answer will be 'a lot.'

问题是，为使今年的经济增速保持在年初制定的7.5%的目标上方，中国政府还必须推出多少刺激措施？中国企业押注说答案将是“很多。

The People's Bank of China has already surprised the market with two interest-rate cuts this year, taking the benchmark one-year interest rate from 3.5% to 3%. The interest-rate swap market is betting the rate will go to 2% in the next twelve months, implying a full percentage point cut from the current level.

中国央行今年以来两次降息，将一年期基准利率从3.5%降至3%，此举已令市场感到意外。利率掉期市场押注，称未来十二个月内基准利率将降至2%。若果真如此，则意味着利率将从当前水平再降整整一个百分点。

Yuan appreciation has also swung into reverse, with China's currency down 1.1% against the dollar since the end of the first quarter. The markets are betting there is more to come. The one-year forward contract is pricing in yuan depreciation of 1.5% in the year ahead.

人民币升值的趋势也已发生逆转，自一季度末以来，人民币对美元累计贬值1.1%。市场押注人民币汇率还将进一步走低。从一年期远期合约的价格看，市场的预测是未来一年人民币将贬值1.5%。

In fact, the markets are betting on more easing than makes sense. More rate cuts would certainly stimulate growth, but at the expense of worsening China's structural imbalances. A sustained fall in the yuan against the dollar in an election year in the U.S. risks diplomatic and trade tensions.

事实上，市场预计的更多宽松政策已经超出了合理水平。进一步降息肯定会刺激经济增长，但代价是中国的经济结构失衡将进一步加剧。在美国的大选年，如果人民币对美元汇率持续下跌，则可能会使外交和贸易关系变得紧张。

He Weisheng, China FX and rates strategist at Citibank, said banks and insurance companies hedging against risks from floating-rate assets and fixed-rate liabilities are the main force dragging down the interest-rate swaps. Similarly, importers hedging against dollar appreciation are depressing the yuan in the currency forward markets.

花旗银行(Citibank)中国外汇和利率策略师贺伟晟说，对冲浮动利率资产和固定利率负债风险的银行和保险公司，是拖累利率掉期的主要因素。同样，对冲美元升值风险的进口企业在远期外汇市场压低了人民币币值。

With firms hedging their own particular risks, the markets don't reflect a clearsighted view on where China's main policy variables will be in a year's time.

当每家企业都在对冲各自面临的具体风险时，市场不会清晰地反映未来一年中国主要政策变量的情况。