Lex专栏：铜价反弹

China’s fascination with resource-rich Africa’s treasure knows no bounds. If the metal is red, so much the better: China is the world’s biggest consumer of copper. Last week Discovery Metals, whose main asset is a copper mine in Botswana, brushed off a US$850m offer from private equity group Cathay Fortune. The Australian exploration company wisely left the door open for a higher offer. It must recall the generosity of Minmetals Resources, which paid C$1.3bn in February for Toronto-listed Anvil Mining, a miner in Democratic Republic of Congo.

中国对于坐拥丰富资源的非洲矿企的痴迷没有止境。如果那种金属是红色的，那就更好了：中国是全球第一大铜消费国。上周，非洲铜矿商Discovery Metals拒绝了中国私人股本集团鸿商产业控股(Cathay Fortune)发出的金额高达8.5亿美元的收购要约。Discovery Metals是一家在澳大利亚上市的矿企，主要资产是一处位于博茨瓦纳(Botswana)的铜矿，它明智地为更高的出价留下了机会。该公司一定是想起了出手阔绰的五矿资源(Minmetals Resources)，后者于今年2月为收购在刚果(Congo)拥有矿产的多伦多上市铜矿企业Anvil支付了13亿加元。

Copper has recovered from its midyear funk to trade around $8,100 a tonne. One reason for this resilience when demand is subdued is that liquid stocks of the metal hit a historic low (put at 2.6 weeks of consumption, by IntierraRMG) in the third quarter. But copper’s price is not just a bet on Chinese demand – or monetary easing programmes.

铜价已从年中的疲态，回升至约每吨8100美元水平。在需求依然不振之际，铜价出现反弹，原因在于第三季度铜的现货库存量已经降至历史低点（来自咨询公司IntierraRMG的数据显示，铜的现货库存仅够维持2.6周的消费需求）。但铜价走势，并不仅仅是一场关于中国铜需求或者货币宽松计划的赌博。

Supply – constrained by weather, earthquakes, permits and declining grades from old mines – also plays a part. The spat between Anglo Americanand Codelcodid not affect supply but labour disruption in Chile did. The world’s top 10 mines produced 600,000t fewer of copper last year than in 2010, Rio Tinto notes. It expects mine closures to cut copper output by 1.8mt in the next five years and declining grades by a further 1.6mt. In other words 3.4mt of new production, equivalent to a fifth of this year’s output, will be required to stand still.

铜的供给也是一个影响因素，而铜产量受到天气、地震、许可证以及老矿产出品级下降等因素的影响。英美资源(Anglo American)和智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)之间的纠纷并未影响铜的供给，但智利的大罢工则抑制了铜生产。力拓指出，全球前十大矿产企业去年的铜产量较2010年减少了60万吨。该公司预计，铜矿关停将导致未来五年的铜产量下降180万吨，而老矿产出品级下降将在此基础上导致铜产量进一步下降160万吨。换句话说，要想使铜供给持平，铜产量需要新增340万吨，相当于今年产出规模的五分之一。

Demand in the longer term will be supported by growing electrification in emerging markets in Asia, and motor industry growth in China and India. The outlook emboldened some miners (Anglo, Rio and Xstrata) to go ahead with projects; others (BHP Billiton) slowed them, amid fears of a looming glut. Either way, investors should prefer names with access to high-grade ore and lower cash costs. Wood Mackenzie data put Rio, Freeport-McMoRanand BHP Billitonat the low end of the cost curve. New projects for Xstrata could reshuffle the pack. As ever, the real winners will be those suppliers that best gauge demand.

长期来看，亚洲新兴市场地区的电子化程度上升以及中国和印度汽车工业的发展将对铜的需求构成支撑。这一前景让英美资源、力拓以及斯特拉塔(Xstrata)等矿产企业有胆量放手推进新项目；而必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等其他企业则放缓了项目进度，因担心未来供给可能过剩。不论最终出现的是哪种情况，投资者应该更加关注拥有高品级矿源以及低现金成本的企业。在能源资讯公司Wood Mackenzie看来，力拓、自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿公司(Freeport-McMoRan)以及必和必拓处于成本曲线的低端。斯特拉塔的新矿产项目则有可能使该序列重排。和以往一样，真正的赢家将是那些能够最为准确地预测市场需求的供应商。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析