杰尼亚走向“坎坷之路”

“We have to be ready for a bumpy ride, Gildo Zegna, chief executive of Italian fashion house Ermenegildo Zegna, tells the Financial Times while thrusting the arms of his blue silk jacket above the desk of his Milan office.

“我们必须为坎坷之路做好准备，意大利时尚品牌杰尼亚(Ermenegildo Zegna)的首席执行官吉尔多·杰尼亚(Gildo Zegna) 对英国《金融时报》说道，他穿着蓝色丝外套，将胳膊搁在他米兰办公室的桌上。

Mr Zegna says the men’s luxury fashion house expects revenue growth of slightly above 10 per cent this year, even as he warns that the Chinese market will grow more slowly than it has over the past decade.

吉尔多·杰尼亚表示，这家男士奢侈时尚品牌预计今年能取得略高于10%的收入增长，不过他警告称中国市场的增长速度将不及过去十年。

“The growth of 20-30 per cent we have seen in China can’t continue, he says. “That doesn’t mean the market will stop growing, but it means we have to adjust to 10-15 per cent growth there. I wish every country we are in grew like that. His warning comes as Bain and Co, the consultancy, is today expected to cut its forecast for growth in the mainland Chinese luxury goods market.

“中国过去取得的20%-30%的增长率无法持续，他说，“这并不意味着市场将停止增长，但意味着我们要适应10%-15%的增长率。我希望我们拥有业务的每个国家都能取得这样的增长。贝恩咨询公司(Bain and Company)近日下调了对中国大陆奢侈品市场的预期。

Claudia D’Arpizio, a Milan-based partner at Bain and Co, says its forecast for Chinese luxury growth will fall from its May prediction of 18-22 per cent at constant exchange rates to a more modest 15-18 per cent.

贝恩驻米兰合伙人克劳迪亚·达皮奇奥(Claudia D'Arpizio)称，贝恩对中国奢侈品增长的预期将从5月的18%-22%（按固定汇率计算）下调至15%-18%。

The prediction of slowing growth in China follows a profit warning from Burberry last month in which the British fashion group cited a slowing Chinese market and its finance director said “we know we are not alone.

在对中国增长放缓的预期出炉之前，博柏利(Burberry)曾于上月发布盈利预警。这家英国时尚集团在预警中提到了中国市场增长放缓的状况，其财务主管称“我们知道面临这种情况的不只是我们一家。

“At a certain point markets become more mature and that is what is starting to happen in China, says Armando Branchini, president of InterCorporate, a Milan-based luxury goods and retail consultancy.

“到了一定时间，市场会趋于成熟，这一幕正开始在中国上演，米兰奢侈品与零售咨询公司InterCorporate总裁阿曼多·布拉基尼(Armando Brachini)说。

“Japan and Hong Kong were growing 20-30 per cent in the 1970s, but little by little that growth rate slowed down and Japan is still the second-most important market in the world for luxury goods even though there has been limited growth in recent years.

“日本和香港在20世纪70年代取得了20%-30%的增长率，但后来渐渐放缓。尽管日本近年来增长十分有限，它仍然是全球第二重要的奢侈品市常

Zegna and other luxury goods companies have weathered the financial crisis and in many cases enjoyed robust growth by offsetting a slowdown in Europe with surging sales in China.

杰尼亚和其他奢侈品公司抵挡住了金融危机，由于在中国的销售额飙升弥补了欧洲市场的冷淡，很多公司取得了强劲增长。

Now, as Chinese growth is expected to slow, they are set for an inevitable deterioration in their results.

现在，因为中国增长预期放缓，这些公司的业绩将不可避免地出现下滑。

Mr Zegna says: “Crisis is a word we have to keep in mind at all times and learn to live with it. My job is to do the best we can in the crisis, make the most of 2012 and then be ready for 2013. Don’t ask me about next year, it will be tougher than this one.

吉尔多·杰尼亚说：“我们必须时刻牢记危机这个词，并学会与它共存。我的职责是在危机中做到最好，充分把握2012年，为2013年做好准备。别问我明年的情况，明年将会比今年困难。

Revenues at Zegna rose 17 per cent at constant currency rates last year to €1.13bn, with China growing 28 per cent.

按固定汇率计算，杰尼亚收入去年增长17%，达11.3亿欧元，其中中国市场增长28%。

Asian tourists shopping in Europe helped ensure a modest rise in revenue on the continent. Group sales gained 21 per cent in 2010.

亚洲游客在欧洲购物，帮助该地区实现收入的适度增长。2010年，杰尼亚的销售额增长21%。

To underline the importance of China for Zegna, which exports 90 per cent of what it produces, its chief executive notes that Macau generates more revenue than Las Vegas. About a third of the 50 new stores it is opening in 2012 will be in China.

杰尼亚90%的产品销往海外。为了强调中国的重要性，杰尼亚的首席执行官提到，澳门产生的收入比拉斯维加斯还高。杰尼亚在2012年开张的50家新店中，有约三分之一位于中国。

The slowdown in China has pushed the company to seek growth in new, and sometimes surprising, markets such as Mongolia, Nigeria and Morocco, where there are stores, and Mozambique, Kenya and Angola, where the company expects to open stores within two years.

中国增长放缓，促使公司寻找新兴和冷门市场，如已开设店铺的蒙古、尼日利亚和摩洛哥，以及预计在两年内开设店铺的莫桑比克、肯尼亚和安哥拉。

“We are going for the top 1 per cent of the population, or perhaps even less, says Mr Zegna.

“我们的目标是最高端的1%乃至更少的人群，吉尔多·杰尼亚说。

“There is no reason we cannot cater to people from these countries where they live, after all we are already serving them in London [Paris and Milan], he adds.

“既然我们已经在伦敦（以及巴黎和米兰）为这些高端人群服务，我们没有理由不能在他们本国为他们服务，他补充道。

“So far, the stores in these places are doing OK. You have to put your foot in to test the water. An entrepreneur is a risk taker, that’s how it is.

“目前，这些地方的店铺业绩不错。不亲身尝试，就不知道水的深浅。企业家是要冒险的，这是他们的使命。

Zegna, always among the first to open new markets for European luxury goods companies, inaugurated its first store in China in 1991, 15 years before most competitors began developing a serious strategy for the country.

杰尼亚总是率先为欧洲奢侈品公司开辟新市场，它早在1991年就在中国开设了第一家店铺，而大多数同行直到15年后才为中国制定认真的发展战略。

Mr Zegna, whose grandfather founded the company in 1910 with the idea of combining British quality with Italian design, dismisses the idea that Zegna could seek an initial public offering anytime soon.

吉尔多·杰尼亚否认了公司可能在短期内寻求首次公开募股的说法。他的祖父于1910年创办公司，以结合英国品质与意大利设计为宗旨。

Mr Zegna says he would be surprised if the company did not reach its five-year revenue target of €1.5bn, announced earlier this year. If it matches this year’s target of sales growth “in the low double- digits in the next two years, it will reach €1.5bn in 2014.

吉尔多·杰尼亚称，如果公司未能达到今年早些时候提出的在5年内将收入提高至15亿欧元的目标，他将会十分惊讶。如果能在接下来两年内继续实现今年“百分之十出头的销售额增长目标，公司将在2014年达到15亿欧元的目标。