美国制造业即将复兴？

In a waning presidential first term nothing compares to the importance of securing another one. In Barack Obama’s case, there is an added spur to his drive for re-election. The president believes the American economy will spring back to life over the next four years and cannot abide the thought of Mitt Romney reaping the credit.

在首个总统任期即将结束之时，没有什么事情比确保连任更重要。对于巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)来说，驱使他争取连任的还有一个因素。这位美国总统认为，未来四年美国经济将重新焕发活力，因此他无法容忍米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)坐享其成。

Mr Obama’s impulse is more than understandable. However unearned, an economic revival that coincided with a Romney first term would easily be marketed as a “Romney boom. But even if – as many expect – Mr Obama wins on 6 November, he should be wary of the growing belief in America’s impending manufacturing renaissance.

奥巴马的动机完全可以理解：如果罗姆尼当选，那么碰巧会在他首个任期内出现的经济回暖就很可能会被宣扬为“罗姆尼繁荣，即使他对此毫无贡献。但是，即使奥巴马像很多人预期的那样在11月6日赢得选战，他也应当对所谓美国制造业即将复兴的观点保持警惕——现在有越来越多的人相信这一观点。

Too much of it is based on hope. America’s pallid – and again waning – economic recovery is already into its fourth year. The typical length of the business cycle is about seven years. It requires optimism at this stage to believe the patient is about to arise and go for a jog.

这一观点的主观愿望成分过重。美国苍白无力且势头再次减弱的经济复苏已走入第四个年头。通常来说，一个完整的经济周期大约要七年时间。在现阶段就相信这位“病人马上能下床慢跑的人，确实需要点乐观主义精神。

Here is the case for America’s coming manufacturing boom. First, the US is in the early stages of an energy windfall that will transform its attractiveness as a location to do business. In addition to the unfolding energy supply shock, which will lower the cost of electricity and the feed-in stock for many kinds of production, the cost of American labour looks increasingly attractive next to wage inflation in China and other emerging market economies.

支持美国制造业即将复兴的理由如下。首先，美国正处于一场意外的能源繁荣的早期阶段，这场繁荣将大大提升在美国从事制造业的吸引力。除了日益显现的能源供给冲击（它将拉低电力以及多种生产所需中间原料的成本）之外，美国的劳动力成本也因中国和其他新兴市场经济体工资水平上涨而显得愈发具有吸引力。

According to the Boston Consulting Group the US could create between 2m and 5m new manufacturing jobs between now and 2020. That would make up for between one-third and three-quarters of what it has lost in the past decade.

波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)指出，从现在到2020年，美国在制造业领域可以创造200万至500万个新就业岗位。这相当于美国制造业在过去十年所损失掉的就业岗位的三分之一至四分之三。

On top of that, the US housing market has finally bottomed out and is likely once again to become a net plus to US growth. Finally, as Roger Altman recently argued in the FT, Washington could surprise us all by skirting the cliff and striking a fiscal deal that would rekindle America’s animal spirits.

另外，美国住房市场终于已经见底，并很可能再度对美国经济增长起到净推动作用。最后，正如罗杰·奥尔特曼(Roger Altman)近期在英国《金融时报》撰文所称的，华盛顿方面也许能给我们大家一个惊喜，绕过“财政悬崖，达成一项能重振美国“动物精神的财政协议。

Much of this is indisputable; the US is well on the way to a new era of energy abundance. Estimates of its impact range from mildly positive to something far bigger. Much of it is also probable: it would take a huge shock to push the US housing market back into free fall.

以上这些理由大部分是无可争议的；美国正稳步走向一个能源充足的新时代。对于这件事产生的潜在影响，有人认为是温和利好，也有人认为是重大利好。以上预测的许多情形也有较大可能出现：只有规模巨大的外部冲击才可能使美国住房市场重新回到自由落体状态。

Some of it is less so: it would be a surprise if Congress struck an intelligent fiscal bargain in the coming months. Should the Republican “fever break – as some Democrats describe the anticipated Republican change of heart – it would certainly qualify as a positive shock to the economy. Both Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s, the two biggest credit rating agencies, cite political risk as America’s chief vulnerability.

不过以上观点中有一部分我不敢苟同：如果未来几个月美国国会达成一项明智的财政妥协方案，那将出乎人们的意料。如果共和党人届时能够“退烧（一些民主党人用这个词来形容预期中的、共和党人立场的转变），那当然算得上是对美国经济的一次正面激励。两大信用评级机构穆迪(Moody's)和标准普尔(Standard and Poor's)都认为，政治风险是美国现在的主要“软肋。

Yet it is hard to get excited about a revival based on so many ifs and buts. Even if the rosiest forecasts prove correct, they are based on sobering assumptions. First, the boom would be based on the continued decline in US unit labour costs. By 2016, according to Boston Consulting Group, the gap with China would have narrowed to just seven cents an hour. These would be neither the high-tech jobs of the future nor the golden middle class jobs of the past.

但是，一个基于如此之多“如果和“但是的复兴很难让人感到振奋。即使最乐观的预测被证明是正确的，它们也是建立在一系列严峻的条件之上。首先，这场复兴要求美国单位劳动成本要持续下降。波士顿咨询集团指出，到2016年，美国与中国的单位劳动成本之差将收窄至7美分每小时。不过，与之对应的工作岗位既不会是新兴的高科技工作岗位，也不会是传统的中产阶级金领岗位。

Rising US labour productivity growth will play its part. So too will declining US wages. Hourly pay for new “two-tier hires in US auto assembly plants and elsewhere is roughly half that of the original tier (and with a fraction of the benefits). None of this would alter the calculus for the higher-tech manufacturers, such as semiconductors and robotics. At a typical Intel plant, whether in China or America, labour costs amount to just a tenth of total overheads. Tax rates, market access and the cost of land are far more important factors.

美国劳动生产率的上升将是导致单位劳动成本下降的原因之一。美国工资水平的整体下滑也将对此有所贡献。美国汽车组装厂以及其他地方付给新入职的“二级员工的时薪大约只有老员工的二分之一（福利也比老员工少很多）。不过，所有这些都不会改变生产半导体、机器人等产品的高科技制造企业的成本状况。对于一家英特尔(Intel)旗下的典型工厂来说，不论其在中国还是在美国，劳动力成本都仅占总成本的十分之一。税率、市场准入以及土地成本是更为重要的因素。

Second, the hollowing out of America’s middle class – still politely described as median income stagnation rather than “decline – is accelerating rather than slowing. According to the US Census last week, the US median household is 4.8 per cent poorer now than at the start of the recovery in 2010. Median incomes have now fallen to the pre-internet level of 1993. All of the gains of the Clinton years have been lost. The decline in the past three years follows a 3.2 per cent drop during the recession, which itself followed a shrinkage during the 2000-2007 cycle. Far from a new dawn of broad-based growth, America’s middle class decline is getting worse.

其次，美国中产阶级的空心化——这一现象仍被斯文地称作中产阶级收入停滞、而不是“下降——正在加速而非减缓。美国人口普查局(US Census Bureau)上周发布的数据显示，今天美国中等收入家庭的财富，与2010年本轮经济复苏启动时相比缩水了4.8%。家庭收入中值现已降至1993年前互联网时代的标准。美国家庭在克林顿(Bill Clinton)执政期间积累下的财富已彻底蒸发。过去三年里美国中产阶级收入呈下行走势；在此之前的经济衰退期的收入降幅则为3.2%；在更早以前的2000年至2007年间，美国中产阶级收入同样呈现缩水趋势。与展现出新曙光的多方位经济增长形成鲜明反差的是，美国中产阶级的衰落正在加剧。

Recent days will chiefly be remembered for Mr Romney’s decision to stand by his disparaging comments about the 47 per cent of Americans who pay no federal income tax. They will also be remembered for the release of his full 2011 tax return , which showed that the former Bain Capital executive pays a lower overall rate than the poorest fifth of Americans. In an era of increasing economic insecurity, Mr Romney has made a hash of his campaign.

过去这几天将因为罗姆尼坚持自己所说的47%的美国人不缴纳联邦所得税的诋毁性言论而被铭记。人们还将记住，近期公布的罗姆尼2011年完整税单显示，这位贝恩资本(Bain Capital)前高管的整体税率，比占美国人口五分之一的最低收入人群还低。在这个经济不安全感日益上升的时期，罗姆尼此举严重打乱了自己竞选活动的阵脚。

Were he a better politician, Mr Romney would have seized on a report earlier this month that showed a sharp fall in US competitiveness. In 2007, the US was ranked first by the World Economic Forum, which published the report. By 2011 it had fallen to fifth. This year it dropped to seventh. The chief culprits are bad governance, macroeconomic instability and declining infrastructure. Here, too, the American trend points the wrong way.

假如罗姆尼是一名更加出色的政客，他本应抓住本月早些时候发布的一份显示美国竞争力显著下降的报告大做文章。2007年，美国被发布该报告的世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)评为全球最具竞争力的国家。到了2011年，美国的排名已降至第五位。今年更进一步下滑至第七位。主要的症结在于政府治理不力、宏观经济形势不稳定以及基础设施日渐老化。在这一点上，美国的发展趋势同样指向错误的方向。

Should he still pull off a victory, Mr Romney’s tax plans would skew the fiscal system even further towards the wealthiest. If, as Mr Romney says, Mr Obama is a “redistributionist, then he is clearly not a very effective one.

假如罗姆尼仍能赢得本届大选，他的税收方案将使整个财政体系进一步向最富裕阶层倾斜。如果奥巴马像罗姆尼所说的那样是一位“收入再分配主义者，那么他显然就不是一个非常重视效率的人。

Whoever wins the 2012 election, America can certainly rely on a coming energy boom – in fact it is already well under way. Most of the rest looks like either hype or hope.

不论最终是谁赢得2012年大选，美国都肯定能从即将到来的能源繁荣中受益——事实上，这场繁荣已经在形成当中。而支持美国制造业复兴的其余大多数理由，看起来要么是夸大之辞，要么是主观愿望。