玉米收成“灾难”将推高美国肉价

Pork and chicken will join beef on the menu of expensive meats as drought and US ethanol policy combine in a corn “disaster, the head of the world’s largest pork producer has said.

全世界最大的猪肉生产商负责人表示，由于干旱和美国的乙醇政策引发了一场玉米“灾难，猪肉和鸡肉将变得和牛肉一样价格不菲。

The cost of the main ingredients in animal feed, corn and soyameal, have set records this month as the worst drought in half a century and extreme heat damages crops in the US, the world’s main surplus producer.

随着高温天气和半个世纪最严重干旱影响美国（世界主要盈余生产国）的谷物收成，动物饲料的主要原料——玉米和大豆粉的价格本月升至纪录高位。

“Beef is simply going to be too expensive to eat. Pork is not going to be too far behind. Chicken is catching up fast, said Larry Pope, chief executive of Smithfield Foods. “Are we going to really take protein away from Americans?

Smithfield Foods的首席执行官拉里·波普(Larry Pope)说：“人们就快吃不起牛肉了，吃不起猪肉的日子也不会太远，鸡肉也在快速赶超。我们真的要让美国人吃不起蛋白质吗？

Smithfield estimates the US corn crop will yield less than 140 bushels an acre and possibly 130 bushels, which Mr Pope said would sharply reduce harvest expectations at a time of scarce global supplies. The US government forecasts average yields of 146 bushels.

Smithfield估计，美国每英亩的玉米产量将不足140蒲式耳，可能为130蒲式耳。波普表示，在全球供应本已匮乏的情况下，这将大幅降低产量预期。美国政府预测每英亩玉米产量平均为146蒲式耳。

“I’ll use the word catastrophe – that’s my definition, Mr Pope told the Financial Times in an interview.

波普在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，“我会用到‘灾难’这个词——这是我的定义。

Meat producers feel pressure when feed prices surge. Smithfield shares fell 13 per cent in the month to Tuesday.

饲料价格飙升给肉类生产企业带来了压力。截至本周二，Smithfield的股价本月已下跌13%。

Mr Pope said the company has used futures to lock in feed costs “well into the spring of 2013. He had to defend the position at a board meeting on June 18, before corn had jumped to a record $8 a bushel.

波普指出，该公司已利用期货交易锁定了截至2013年春季的饲料成本。他曾不得不在6月18日的董事会会议上为这一做法辩护，随后玉米价格升至创纪录的每蒲式耳8美元。

“I thought that $6 corn was the end of the world, said Mr Pope. “I never could have realised that I would be thankful to be buying it at $7.

波普说：“我曾以为当玉米价格涨到6美元时，世界末日也就到了。我从未想到当我以7美元的价格买进玉米时，我会如此心怀感激。

Most analysts expect the livestock industry will respond to higher feed prices by culling pig herds.

多数分析师预计，养殖业将对饲料价格的上涨做出反应，削减猪群数量。

Mr Pope warned that US meat prices would rise by “significant double-digits, or more than 10 per cent a year.

波普警告说，美国肉类价格将上涨“可观的两位数，即一年超过10%。