农民工数量不足根源在于歧视性政策

China's communists have to stop discriminating against the workers.

中国政府必须停止对农民工的歧视。

A migrant worker tribe that swelled from 25 million in 1990 to 158 million in 2011 has been a key contributor to China's rapid growth. The move from the farm to the factory expanded the workforce, increased productivity, and super-charged China's export competitiveness.

从1990年到2011年，中国的农民工大军从2,500万增长到了的1.58亿，他们是推动中国经济快速增长的关键因素。这种从田间到工厂的迁移扩大了劳动力规模，提高了生产力，而且极大地提升了中国的出口竞争力。

The fear is that after decades of migration, the store of rural workers is close to exhausted. Wages increased 14.8% in the year to June, despite a sharp slowdown in the export and construction sectors where migrants work. That certainly suggests a dearth of workers.

有人担忧，经过了数十年的劳动力向城市迁移之后，农村劳动力储备已将近枯竭。截至今年6月，尽管出口和建筑等吸收农民工就业的领域增长急剧下降，工人工资水平却同比增长了14.8%。这毫无疑问意味着工人数量已经不足。

The reality though, is that it is policy not population that is the main cause of the shortage.

然而事实上，导致劳动力不足的主要原因是政策，而非人口方面的因素。

Xin Meng, an expert on China's labor market at Australian National University, calculates that most rural migrants spend only seven years away from the farm. They arrive in the city in their late teens and return to the country aged around 25 to raise children. Of the 380 million-strong rural population aged 16-40, just 100 million are working in the cities.

澳大利亚国立大学(Australian National University)中国劳动力市场问题专家孟昕的统计显示，大多数农民工离开农村的时间只有七年。他们在不到20岁的时候来到城市，25岁左右回到农村生儿育女。在3.8亿16岁到40岁的青壮年农村人口中，仅有1亿人在城市工作。

To see why, look no further than discriminatory policies that deny rural migrants and their families access to the benefits of city life. Ms. Xin's survey work shows that in 2011, 13% of migrant workers had unemployment insurance, and 20% health coverage, compared with 66% and 87% for urban residents. The destruction of schools for migrant children in Beijing in 2011 shows how welcome migrants' families are in China's major cities.

让农民工及其家人无法享有城市生活便利的原因就在于歧视性政策。孟昕的调查显示，2011年，拥有失业保险的民工比例为13%，拥有医疗保险的民工比例为20%，相比之下，在城市人口中，这两个比例分别是66%和87%。2011年发生农民工子弟学校被拆的事件，农民工家庭在中国大城市受到的待遇由此可见一斑。

When the lower supply and higher expectations of migrant workers runs up against management intransigence on pay and conditions, the results can be explosive. Riots at a Foxconn factory last month, for instance, may be symptomatic of a deeper malaise.

农民工的数量降低，他们的期望值却在升高。与此同时，管理者在工资和工作条件上却拒不让步，这些因素加在一起的后果不堪设想。上个月富士康(Foxconn)工厂发生的骚乱或许就是更深层次危机表现出的症状。

The good news is that with millions of working age remaining in China's countryside, the supply of labor is not exhausted. The bad news is that tempting the additional workers out of the villages will require higher wages, and far-reaching reforms of China's entrenched urban residence system.

好消息是，鉴于中国农村仍然有数以百万计的劳动人口，劳动力的供应没有完全枯竭。坏消息是，要吸引劳动力走出农村，必须提供给他们更高的工资，并且对中国深沟高垒的城市户口制度进行彻底的改革。

Migrant workers built China's cities, now they have to be allowed to live in them.

既然农民工建造了中国的城市，那就应该允许他们在城市中生活。