英国经济摆脱二次探底

Britain’s double-dip recession has ended after the economy grew 1 per cent between the second and third quarters, a rate that surprised investors and delighted the coalition government.

英国经济在第二至第三季度之间增长1%，二次探底由此结束。这一增长速度让投资者惊讶，也让联合政府兴奋不已。

The quarterly growth was the strongest in five years, though the economy is still no bigger than it was a year ago and 3 per cent smaller than before the financial crisis hit. One-off factors also flattered the figures.

这是5年来英国经济增长最强劲的一个季度，不过英国经济规模仍没有超过1年前的水平，比金融危机爆发之前则小3%。一次性因素也美化了这个增长数据。

The data come at a critical time for the UK government, whose austerity programme has encountered fierce criticism as the economy has faltered. David Cameron, the prime minister, and George Osborne, the chancellor, were privately thrilled by the news, though both stressed there would be a protracted and erratic path to full economic recovery.

数据发布之际，英国政府正面临关键时刻。其紧缩计划遭到激烈批评，原因是经济一直蹒跚不前。首相戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)和财政大臣乔治·奥斯本(George Osborne)私下里对这一消息感到振奋。不过两人都强调，经济全面复苏之路将漫长而曲折。

Mr Osborne said the figures meant “we are on the right track, though there was “still a long way to go.

奥斯本表示，这一数据意味着“我们走在正确的道路上，尽管“前路依然漫漫。

Yields on 10-year UK government bonds were trading up 6 basis points at 1.91 per cent as investors bet the data had cut the chances the Bank of England would renew quantitative easing, its bond-buying programme aimed at stimulating growth, when the current set of purchases ends next month. Minutes of this month’s meeting of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee revealed there were already disagreements over whether more QE was necessary.

英国10年期国债收益率上升6个基点，至1.91%，投资者认为，经济增长数据降低了英国央行(BoE)推出新一轮量化宽松(QE)的几率，本轮债券购买将于下月结束。QE是旨在刺激经济增长的购买债券计划。英国央行货币政策委员会(Monetary Policy Committee)本月会议的记录显示，与会者对是否有必要继续推出QE已经存在分歧。

The bounce in economic growth was exaggerated by one-off factors, such as the unwinding of the effect of a long bank holiday for the Queen’s diamond jubilee, which depressed output in the second quarter, and the London Olympics. Sales of London 2012 tickets alone added about 0.2 percentage points to gross domestic product growth, the Office for National Statistics said.

英国经济增长反弹，一次性因素起了很大的作用，例如为纪念女王登基钻石周年而安排的法定假日抑制了第二季度产出，以及伦敦奥运会的举办。英国国家统计局(Office for National Statistics)表示，单是2012伦敦奥运会门票销售就占了国内生产总值(GDP)增幅的0.2个百分点。

Economists said the underlying growth rate was probably about 0.3 per cent in the third quarter – weak by historical standards but better than had been assumed.

经济学家表示，第三季度基础增长率可能在0.3%左右，按历史标准增幅疲软，但好于此前的预期。