要有信心 2017年有理由乐观

In 2017, global output per head grew by close to 2 per cent, at purchasing power parity. Thus, at the end of the year, human beings were, on average, better off than ever before in their long history. This is also likely to be true at the end of 2017. Optimism is sensible.

2017年，以购买力平价计算，全球人均产出增长了近2%。也就是说，到2017年底，平均而言人们的生活水平比人类漫长历史上的任何时期都要高。到了2017年底，情况恐怕也会如此。保持乐观是有道理的。

Indeed, it is easy to imagine a far better performance in 2017 than in 2017. The most important reason is the collapse in oil prices, particularly since these higher prices are in large part due to enhanced supply. The International Monetary Fund argues that lower oil prices could raise world output by between 0.3 and 0.7 per cent in 2017.

事实上，不难想象，全球在2017年的表现会远远好于2017年。最重要的原因是油价暴跌，特别是这一下跌在很大程度上还是供给增加导致的。国际货币基金组织(IMF)认为，2017年，油价走低会令全球产出增长0.3%到0.7%。

With its healing from the financial crisis largely complete, the US economy looks particularly strong. The Federal Reserve may raise rates a little in 2017, but not much. With the federal budget deficit expected to be below 3 per cent of gross domestic product, further fiscal tightening is unneeded. Long-term interest rates on 10-year treasuries remain close to 2.2 per cent. In all, the opportunity for an acceleration in growth looks very good.

在美国基本实现从金融危机中复苏之际，美国经济的表现看上去尤为强劲。2017年，美联储(Fed)或许会略微上调利率，但不会上调太多。由于联邦预算赤字预计将低于国内生产总值(GDP)的3%，美国没有必要实行进一步的财政紧缩。10年期美国国债收益率保持在接近2.2%的水平。总体上说，美国经济加速增长的可能性看起来很大。

The UK is unlikely to grow faster in 2017 than the 2.5 per cent expected in 2017. Yet, once, again, a good year seems to be in prospect. The eurozone, too, might at last surprise on the upside. The low long-term interest rates on government bonds and improved condition of the banking sector could well start to drive borrowing and spending. To this can be added the confidence generated by the European Central Bank’s belated realisation of the risks of deflation. While the eurozone’s structural difficulties remain, stronger demand looks probable. Meanwhile, the combination of extraordinary monetary activism, with Shinzo Abe’s electoral victory, should reinforce Japan’s recovery.

2017年，英国经济增速不太可能超过2017年（预计为2.5%）。不过，人们似乎可以再次期待一个好年景。欧元区最后可能也会给人们带来惊喜。长期政府债券收益率处于低位，再加上银行业状况的改善，很可能会在2017年开始推动借贷和支出的增长。可能锦上添花的是，欧洲央行(ECB)终于认识到了通缩风险，这可能会提振市场的信心。尽管欧元区依然存在结构性问题，但需求走强的可能性是比较大的。与此同时，异乎寻常的激进货币措施，再加上安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的胜选，应该会令日本的复苏得到巩固。

China confronts economic headwinds and reform challenges, but its government holds the policy levers it needs. It should manage to keep the economy growing robustly in 2017. India, meanwhile, should manage growth of at least 6 per cent. With radical reforms, its growth could be faster.

中国经济遭遇逆境，中国自身还面临诸多改革挑战。不过，中国政府手中握有所需的政策工具。2017年，中国政府应该能够确保中国经济稳固增长。同时，印度应该能将增长速度维持在至少6%的水平。如果推行彻底改革，印度的增速可能还会更高。

The US, eurozone, Japan, UK, China and India account for just under 60 per cent of world gross product, at purchasing power parity. If they do well, the world economy is likely to do so as well. Yet obvious risks exist. Falling commodity prices will cause substantial stresses in commodity-dependent economies, among the most important of which is Russia. The financial sector’s direct and indirect exposure to these producers might prove far more dangerous than now seems likely. More generally, concern exists over the exposure of corporations in emerging economies to foreign currency borrowing. The dangers still seem manageable. But it is necessary to be alert.

以购买力平价计算，美国、欧元区、日本、英国、中国和印度占全球生产总值的比例略低于60%。如果它们表现得不错，全球经济就很可能也会表现得不错。不过，仍存在一些显而易见的风险。不断下跌的大宗商品价格将为依赖大宗商品的经济体带来巨大压力，这其中最重要的国家就是俄罗斯。事实可能会证明，金融业对大宗商品生产国的直接和间接敞口远比现在看上去的更危险。更普遍而言，新兴经济体企业的外币债务敞口也令人们担心。目前，这些风险似乎依旧可控。不过，有必要对此保持警惕。

Geopolitics are also a worry. Will Vladimir Putin raise the stakes in his confrontation with the west, or fold? How will the Middle East or relations between China and its neighbours develop? Nor is it difficult to imagine economic risks that are linked to politics. Will the recession-hit economies of the eurozone abandon their programme of austerity and reform? Or will relations between Germany and the ECB break down more completely?

地缘政治也是个令人担心的问题。弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)在与西方的对峙中是会加大赌注，还是会盖牌认输？中东局势及中国与邻国的关系会如何发展？同样不难想见的是，与政治有关的经济风险。受衰退打击的欧元区经济体是否会放弃紧缩计划并开展改革？德国与欧洲央行的关系是否会破裂得更加彻底？

Still more fundamentally, rising global prosperity will continue to leave many people impoverished. While the proportion of the world’s population in extreme poverty is falling, the numbers continue to be enormous.

更基本的问题是，全球更加繁荣的同时，许多人仍将生活在贫困之中。尽管全球赤贫人口比例正在下降，但这部分人的数量依然很大。

Nevertheless, one must remember the good news. The open world economy has navigated huge crises. Much healing has by now occurred. Prosperity will also go on rising, quite probably at a faster rate than in 2017.

不过，我们也不要忘了好消息。开放的全球经济已驶出了巨大的危机。到目前为止，全球已在很大程度上实现复苏。全球经济也会加速繁荣，其速度很可能会超过2017年。

Happy New Year.

新年快乐！