泰坦尼克号沉没原因新解 气候异常

The reason the Titanic hit an iceberg and sunk has been hotly debated for the past century.

在过去的一个世纪里，人们对泰坦尼克号的沉没原因议论纷纷。

While some say it was due to human error, others say the unusual appearance of a large iceberg in a region of the Atlantic Ocean was the main factor.

有些人认为是人为原因所致，而有些人则认为是大西洋海域出现的冰山异常所致。

But now a paper claims it was not one or the other, but rather adverse weather conditions that drove icebergs south farther than usual.

但是最近一篇研究否定了两者，认为当时恶劣的天气状况造成的冰山位置比以往偏南，导致了事故的发生。

The paper 'The iceberg risk in the Titanic year of 1912' was published in the journal Significance.

这篇题为“1912年泰坦尼克号遭遇的冰山风险”的论文发表在Significance期刊上。

It describes how the distance the iceberg that sunk the Titanic had drifted south was much farther than would have been expected at the time.

论文中称当时泰坦尼克号撞上的那座冰山所在位置比往年偏南，并给出了偏离的具体距离。

While they admit stresses on the crew might have been a factor, they say the surprising appearance of such a large iceberg meant the ship’s fate was down to poor luck.

文中还提到，虽然船上工作人员的失职也是一个原因，但是突然出现的巨大冰山似乎也预示了泰坦尼克号命中注定的厄运了。

‘It is most likely that a combination of human errors associated with the captain not reducing speed - despite a number of ice reports reaching the vessel in the days before the collision - and possible variable rivet quality in the hull manufacture led to the tragedy,’ the authors write.

“船长在已知撞击冰山的前几天船身就已经触碰到一些冰块的情况下仍未减速，以及船体制造上可能存在的质量问题，这大概就是酿成这场悲剧的人为因素。”作者在这篇论文中写道。

‘However, the question has often been raised: was the Titanic unlucky in sailing in a year with exceptional iceberg numbers?’

“然后问题就来了‘泰坦尼克号这么倒霉真是因为它出航的那一年冰山数量异常偏高吗’。”

While today there is an extensive ice harzard warning service in the northwest Atlantic, provided by the International Ice Patrol (IIP), in 1912 ships relied on largely on information from others at sea.

虽然现在在大西洋西北部有国际巡冰队（IIP）提供的冰山预警服务信息，但在1912年轮船能依靠的只有其他在海上航行的轮船所提供的信息。

In early April 1912 a number of icebergs had been reported in the northwest Atlantic, which suggests it may have been an exceptional year for icebergs - although not a record.

1912年4月初出现在大西洋西北部被报告的冰山数量，虽然不是最高值，但确实异常的高于往年。

The IIP monitors icebergs by the number that drift south below the 48°N line called the I48N, which runs from Newfoundland to 40°W.

国际巡冰队的监控区域包括被称为148N的北纬48度以南也就是从纽芬兰岛到西经40度的海域漂浮的冰山数量。

This includes any iceberg greater than 16 feet (5m) in above-surface length.

任何高于海平面16英尺（约5米）以上的冰山都在监控之内。

In 1912 1,038 icebergs are thought to have crossed the line - a large number, but not the most on record.

1912年超过这个高度的冰山数量有1038个，这已经高出常年值很多，但并不是史上最多的。

In 2009, for example, over 1,200 icebergs were seen to cross the I48N.

比如2009年这个数值为1200个。

‘The iceberg risk in 1912, in terms of number entering the northwest Atlantic shipping lanes, was therefore large, but not unprecedented,’ the authors write.

作者还在论文中写道：“1912年存在的冰山风险，从大西洋西北部海域上存在的冰山数量来说，是很大的，但也并非前所未有。”

Icebergs, however, generally lose most of their size while drifting south.

但是这些冰山在向南漂浮的过程中改变了原来的大小。

It is thought that the Titanic iceberg was up to 605ft (185m) deep and about 410ft (125m) long, quite large for one so far south.

有人认为导致泰坦尼克号沉船的这块冰山深度达605英尺（约185米），长度为410英尺（约125米），这对于一座南移了这么多的冰山来说已经够大了。

The reason for this, the authors say, was because high pressure dominated the mid-latitude, central Atlantic atmosphere for several days in 1912.

作者称，1912年冰山出现异常是连续多日控制在中纬度、大西洋中部的高气压气流所致。

This led to winds carrying freezing air from northeastern Canada over the western Atlantic south of Newfoundland and, in turn, led to icebergs being transferred further south than normal for that time of year.

这导致夹带冷空气的大风从加拿大西北部刮过大西洋西部和纽芬兰岛的南部，继而使得冰山向南漂浮。

Indeed, the distance south this particular iceberg travelled while maintaining the bulk of its size was largely unusual, despite being in a year with not a record number of icebergs.

确实，无论是这块冰山向南偏离的距离，还是它的体积，虽然都不是记录最高值，但都远远异于常年值。

‘Thus, two unfavourable factors had combined: there were a greater (though not exceptionally greater) number of icebergs than normal that year; and weather conditions had driven them further south, and earlier in the year, than was usual,’ the authors write. They add, however: ‘We may add a third: the stresses on the crew of the Titanic’s maiden voyage.’

“所以，事故发生当时有两个不利因素：一是远高于往年的冰山数量（但未破纪录值），二是天气状况导致的冰山位置异常偏南。”作者写道，并补充说：“当然还有另一个因素：泰坦尼克的首次航行给船上工作人员带来的压力。”