美财政危机带来的压力进一步增加

The White House and Republican lawmakers faced pressure to reach a solution to the looming budget crisis after a nonpartisan agency detailed Thursday how inaction would push the U.S. economy back into recession next year, and skittish investors continued to drive stocks lower.

白宫和共和党议员目前正面临着压力，必须要达成一个方案来化解即将到来的预算危机。此前，一家非党派机构在周四详细解释了，如果不作为，明年美国经济将如何再次陷入衰退；同时惶恐不安的投资者继续推动股市走低。

Economists from the Congressional Budget Office detailed new warnings of an economy speeding toward a so-called fiscal cliff created by a combination of government spending cuts and tax increases set to take effect Jan. 1.

国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office，简称CBO)详细地给出了新的警告：美国经济正在迅速滑向“财政悬崖，即1月1日同时生效的减支与增税带来的财政危机。

White House officials are considering proposals with the twin aims of avoiding the fiscal cliff and sparking negotiations on a broader deficit-reduction deal. Any plan is expected to echo President Barack Obama's campaign call for higher taxes on wealthy Americans, in addition to spending cuts.

白宫官员在考虑方案的时候着眼于两个目标：避开财政悬崖，同时开启全面减赤协议的谈判。预计他们采纳的任何方案都将呼应总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)在竞选中提出的主张：除了削减支出之外，还要对富人增税。

Voters 'clearly chose the president's view of making sure the wealthy Americans are asked to do a little bit more in the context of reducing our deficit in a balanced way,' top White House adviser David Plouffe said Thursday. Mr. Obama planned Friday to give his first post-election statement on the issue.

白宫高级顾问普拉夫(David Plouffe)周四说，选民明显是接受了总统“确保在均衡减赤背景下要求美国富人多出一点力的观点。奥巴马计划周五发表选举之后在这个问题上的第一份声明。

Congressional leaders said they would watch the tone and substance of Mr. Obama's remarks to gauge how the president planned to work with Republicans to reduce the federal deficit.

国会领导人说，他们将关注奥巴马发言的基调和内容，来判断总统打算怎样同共和党人一道削减联邦赤字。

The White House has said it would seek to extend the Bush-era tax cuts to households earning less than $250,000 a year but raise rates on people earning more. Many congressional Republicans have said the lower rates should be extended to all taxpayers for at least another year.

白宫方面曾表示，将谋求对年收入不足25万美元的家庭延长布什时期的减税政策，但对收入更高的家庭提高税率。国会很多共和党人则表示，应将针对全体纳税人的减税措施至少再延长一年。

The CBO on Thursday detailed its view that if Washington policy makers don't act before the end of the year, the economy would contract by 0.5% in 2013. The unemployment rate would jump from 7.9% to 9.1% by the end of 2013, according to the CBO -- a nonpartisan arm of Congress.

CBO周四详细表述了它的观点：如果华盛顿决策者年内不采取行动，2013年美国经济将萎缩0.5%；到2013年年底，失业率将从现在的7.9%增加到9.1%。

If all the spending cuts and tax increases are avoided, CBO forecast the U.S. economy would grow by about 1.7% next year.

CBO预计，如果减支增税得以避免，明年美国经济将实现1.7%左右的增长。

In a 14-page analysis, CBO economists offered Congress an itemized list of choices and consequences. Waiving cuts in domestic and defense spending would, for instance, add three-quarters of a percentage point to economic growth by the end of 2013. Extending all Bush-era tax cuts -- but excluding the payroll tax holiday -- would add about 1.5 percentage points.

在一份14页的分析报告中，CBO经济学家为国会一条一条地列出了摆在他们面前的选择及其后果。比如，如果放弃削减国内支出和国防支出，到2013年年底，经济增长率将会提高四分之三个百分点。延长布什时期的减税政策（但不包括工资税临时减免），则会使增长率提高1.5个百分点左右。

Warnings from the CBO and private-sector economists, as well as a couple of rocky days in the stock market this week, have pushed politicians to at least sound more willing to compromise on their differences than in the past.

CBO和民间经济学家的警告，以及这周股市经历的波动，迫使政治家至少在口头上比过去更愿意妥协。

'We've already had half of a lost decade,' David Stockton, a former top Fed economist now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said of the U.S. economy Thursday. 'I think going over the fiscal cliff in this manner would be sure to bake in at least a lost decade and probably then some.'

曾任美联储(Fed)高级经济学家、目前任职于彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的斯托克顿(David Stockton)周四在谈美国经济的时候说，我们已经耽误了半个10年，我认为如果经历财政悬崖，肯定至少会耽误一整个10年，甚至更长时间。

Since Mr. Obama's election victory, White House and congressional leaders of both parties have taken a more conciliatory stance. That has stirred hopes of a bipartisan deficit-reduction deal among some岸and agitated people in both parties who object to any compromise calling for higher tax revenues on one hand, and cuts to government entitlement programs on the other.

自从奥巴马赢得大选以来，白宫和国会中的两党领导人采取了更加调和的立场，这点燃了一些人对两党达成降低赤字协议的希望，同时也令拒绝妥协的两党人士情绪激动起来，他们中的一方呼吁提高税收，另一方则呼吁减少政府应享权益项目的支出。

'Personally, I think the conditions are exactly perfect for us to move ahead with this right now,' said Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.), who won re-election Tuesday. 'It is going to take the president being committed to doing this and sitting down and rolling up his sleeves and making it happen.'

周二赢得连任的田纳西州共和党参议员科克尔(Bob Corker)说，我个人认为当前的形势为我们提供了在这方面向前推进的完美时机；这需要总统的承诺和切实行动。

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio in a conference call Wednesday told fellow Republicans to avoid drawing lines in the sand. 'We don't want to box ourselves in, and we don't want to box the White House out,' he said, according to someone familiar with the call.

众议院议长博纳(JOHN BOEHNER)在一个电话会议上告诉其他共和党人，要避免给事情划定底线。了解会议内容的人士说，博纳在会上说，我们不想画地为牢，我们也不想让白宫为所欲为。

Mr. Boehner said Wednesday in a televised address that he was open to 'new revenue,' though not higher tax rates, in a deficit-reduction deal but only if the deal included major spending cuts.

博纳周三在电视演讲中说，如果降低赤字协议能够包括大规模削减政府开支的措施，他虽依然不同意提高税率，但会对在该协议中包括进增加政府收入的措施持开放态度。

Ever since, Democrats have been trying to parse his words. Many took it as a sign that he was willing to make new concessions. 'It makes me very hopeful we can do something big in the next month and a half,'' Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) said Thursday.

此后，民主党人一直在努力解读他的这番话。许多人认为这代表他愿意做出新的妥协。纽约州民主党参议员舒默(Charles Schumer)周四说，这让我感到充满希望，我觉得我们能在未来的一个半月里做成一些大事。

CBO also projected that avoiding the fiscal cliff would take the federal debt from last year's 73% of gross domestic product to 86% in 2020.

美国国会预算办公室还预计，要避免出现“财政悬崖，联邦债务与GDP之比到2020年要上升至86%，去年的比例为73%。

The White House is looking for a formula that would stabilize the government's debt as a share of the economy to around 75%, according to one person familiar with the matter. Before the 2007-09 recession, the debt-to-GDP ratio was below 65%.

据一位知情人士说，白宫正在寻找办法把联邦债务与GDP之比稳定在75%左右的水平。在2007年至2010年的经济衰退之前，美国联邦债务与GDP之比低于65%。

Offering a framework rather than a detailed proposal could be attractive to the White House because of concerns that Republicans might reject a plan with too many details.

白宫可能更愿意提供一个框架，而不是一个详细的提案，因为白宫担心共和党人可能会否决含有过多细节的方案。

The White House also was trying to decide whether any offer should include deficit-cutting proposals that Democrats might find unappealing, such as changes to Medicare and Social Security.

白宫还在考虑是否应该提出削减赤字的提议，比如对医疗保险和社会保障政策做出调整等，民主党人可能不会喜欢这样的提议。

'He's going to try to send a message that he'll be flexible too, and he wants to effectively demonstrate that as early in this process as possible to try to set a new tone,' said one White House adviser. '

白宫的一名顾问说，奥巴马将努力传递一个信息，即他也会展示出灵活性，他想在这一过程中尽早地表明这一点，以便设定一个新的基调。

Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) were expected to demand more involvement in any deficit-reduction talks than they had the talks Mr. Obama had with Mr. Boehner. Messrs. Boehner and Reid said Wednesday they were ready to open discussions, leaving the White House to make the next move.

预计包括参议院多数党领袖、内华达州民主党议员里德(Harry Reid)在内的民主党人将要求更多地参与降低赤字谈判，程度要超过他们对奥巴马与博纳间以往那些谈判的参与。博纳和里德周三表示，他们已做好了展开讨论的准备，就等着白宫采取下一步行动了。

Democrats and Republicans have said there likely wasn't enough time to resolve all the budget issues by year-end but they could make progress by legislating a broad agreement this year and making final details in 2013.

民主党人和共和党人表示，在年末之前可能没有足够时间解决所有预算问题，但他们今年有可能以立法形式达成一项广泛性协议，然后在2013年敲定最终的细节，通过这种方式来取得进展。