IMF：法国必须改革

France risks falling behind crisis-hit Italy and Spain if it does not reform its economy, the International Monetary Fund has warned, adding to pressure on President Fran ois Hollande to stem the country’s industrial decline.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告，如果法国不推行经济改革，就有可能落到深陷危机的意大利和西班牙的后面。此言加大了法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德(Fran ois Hollande)面临的压力，要求他遏止法国工业的衰落。

In its annual report on the French economy, the IMF called yesterday for “a comprehensive programme of structural reforms. Forecasting economic growth of 0.4 per cent next year – half the level projected by Paris – the IMF said the outlook was further clouded by France’s “significant loss of competitiveness.

IMF昨日在其有关法国经济的年度报告中，呼吁实施“一套全面的结构改革计划。IMF预测，法国经济明年将增长0.4%（只有巴黎方面预测水平的一半），法国“显著丧失竞争力，给该国经济前景蒙上更大阴影。

“[It] could become more serious if the French economy does not adapt at the same pace as its principal commercial partners, notably Italy and Spain, which, after Germany, are engaged in profound reforms of their labour and service markets, the IMF said.

“如果法国经济不像其主要商务伙伴（尤其是意大利和西班牙）那样进行调整，问题可能变得更加严重。继德国之后，意大利和西班牙正对其劳动力和服务市场进行深度改革，IMF表示。

The warning coincided with the release of a report by Louis Gallois, former chief executive of aerospace group EADS, who made what he called a “severe diagnosis of the decline of French industry.

IMF发出警告之际，适逢欧洲宇航防务集团(EADS)前首席执行官路易·加洛瓦(Louis Gallois)发布一份报告，他对法国工业的衰落作出了“情况严重的诊断。

His report, commissioned by Mr Hollande, said that the Socialist government should cut €30bn, or 1.5 per cent of national output, in social welfare costs on labour within two years to “stop the decoupling of the French economy from its competitors.

由奥朗德委托撰写的这份报告称，法国社会党政府应当在两年内将社会福利对劳动力造成的成本削减300亿欧元（相当于国民产出的1.5%），以遏止法国经济与竞争对手之间的“脱钩。

Mr Gallois put the proposal at the centre of his recommendations despite strong signals from ministers that they were reluctant to take such drastic action.

加洛瓦在其各项建议中将这一提议置于中心地位，尽管部长级官员们发出强烈信号称，他们不愿采取如此大刀阔斧的行动。

“It is what I call a competitiveness shock – a shock of confidence?.?.?.?[to] stop the slide and support investment, he said.

“这就是我所称的竞争力冲击，一种信心的冲击……以遏止下滑趋势，支持投资，他表示。

Mr Hollande, attending an Asian-European summit in Laos, said “strong decisions will be taken. His government is due to give its full response to the Gallois report today.

正在老挝出席一个亚欧峰会的奥朗德表示，“会做出强有力的决策。他领导的政府定于今日对加洛瓦的报告作出全面回应。

Many of the 22 recommendations set out by Mr Gallois chimed with the government’s own emphasis on long-term measures to deepen investment, innovation and research; strengthen links between France’s successful multinational companies and domestic suppliers; and support the development of small and medium-sized businesses.

加洛瓦提出的22项建议中，有不少与政府本身对一些长期措施的注重是吻合的，这些措施旨在深化投资、创新和研究；加强法国成功的跨国公司与国内供应商之间的联系；以及支持中小企业的发展。

But his core proposal to reduce France’s high labour costs, by cutting €20bn in social welfare charges borne by employers and €10bn in those paid by employees, has unsettled the government.

但是，他的核心提议是降低法国偏高的劳动力成本，具体做法是把由雇主承担的社会福利成本削减200亿欧元，把由雇员缴纳的社会福利成本削减100亿欧元，这使法国政府不安。

The government has also been reluctant to commit to deeper cuts in France’s huge public spending bill to pay for a reduction in labour costs. The IMF said “the quality of budget adjustment would be improved by deeper spending cuts, adding that big tax increases for 2012 and 2013 “further reduced incentives to work and invest and put France in a position of competitive disadvantage vis a vis its peers.

政府也不愿更深地削减法国庞大的公共支出预算，以便为降低劳动力成本买单。IMF表示，更深的支出削减“将改进预算调整的质量，并补充说，2012年和2013年的大幅增税计划“进一步削弱了工作和投资的激励，使法国与同类国家相比处于竞争劣势地位。

Ministers have voiced their reluctance to increase other taxes instead, as proposed by Mr Gallois, for fear of hitting consumption and pushing the economy into recession.

部长级官员们表示，他们不愿像加洛瓦所提议的那样，提高其它税种作为替代，因为他们担心打击消费，使法国经济陷入衰退。

Mr Gallois was also set to be rebuffed over his call for further research into the exploitation of France’s big deposits of shale gas – seen by many in business as an opportunity for the country to emulate the recent boost the energy resource has given the US economy.

加洛瓦的另一个提议也将碰壁。他呼吁对开发法国巨大的页岩气储量展开进一步研究——商界许多人将此视为一个良机，使法国经济也能像近年的美国经济那样，从能源资源中得到提振。

Mr Hollande has refused to allow development of shale gas using the controversial extraction technology of “fracking.

奥朗德拒绝允许采用有争议的采掘技术“水力压裂法来开采页岩气。