Lex专栏：昏睡的法国

Aux armes, citoyens. La patrie en danger. France is losing its triple-A status. If the French are honest, they should seize on expulsion from the club to do some clear thinking.

“拿起武器，公民们！祖国正面临危险！法国正在失去AAA评级。如果法国人能够直面现实，他们应当抓住这次被踢出“AAA俱乐部的机会，好好理清思路。

Moody’s cut its top rating late on Monday, following a similar move by Standard and Poor’s in January. The main reason is France’s “gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the longstanding rigidities of its labour, goods and service markets. That is pretty damning – but it is surely not news to the French.

穆迪(Moody's)于周一晚下调了对法国的AAA评级，标准普尔(Standard and Poor's)也曾于今年1月做出类似调整。下调的主要原因在于，法国“正逐渐而持续地丧失经济竞争力，劳动力、商品及服务市场长期僵化。这种评价的确尖锐，但法国人显然不是头一次听到。

France’s benchmark is Germany, yet most comparison indicators are pointing in the wrong direction. The French are (rightly) proud of their industries, yet industry’s share of gross value added has fallen by more than 5 percentage points to 12.5 per cent since the launch of the euro, according to Citi research, compared with a 1 percentage point gain in Germany. Employee costs are two-thirds of profits at French companies, compared with 60 per cent at their German competitors. That fact is not reflected in stock market returns, however – German and French stocks have performed roughly in line over five years.

法国的对照物是德国，但大多数对比指标都指向他们不希望看到的方向。法国人对他们的工业引以为豪（合情合理），但花旗(Citi)的研究显示，在法国，工业总增加值占比在欧元发行后下滑了逾5个百分点，至12.5%，而在德国却上升了1个百分点。法国企业的员工成本相当于利润的三分之二，德国企业的这一比例则为60%。然而，这种现实并未体现在股市回报中——德国和法国的股票5年来的表现大致相同。

France does not have to be the eurozone’s perennial number two. It has great companies – top-notch in luxury goods (LVMH), energy (Total) and pharmaceuticals (Sanofi), competitive in aerospace (EADS) and machinery (Schneider Electric). Moreover, outsiders see value where the French seemingly do not. Activist investors from London and New York have built stakes in aerospace group Safranand food concern Danone. French stocks could be a steal right now.

法国并非注定要作欧元区的“千年老二。它拥有伟大的公司——奢侈品行业的路威酩轩(LVMH)、能源行业的道达尔(Total)、制药行业的赛诺菲(Sanofi)均是各自领域的佼佼者，航空航天行业的欧洲航空防务与航天集团(EADS)以及机械行业的施耐德电气(Schneider Electric)也竞争力十足。此外，外部人士发现了法国人似乎未能发现的价值。伦敦和纽约的主动型投资者已在积累航空航天集团赛峰(Safran)和食品公司达能(Danone)的股份。法国股现在可能物超所值。

The socialist government has responded to a report on the lack of industrial competitiveness with a €20bn corporate tax break. That is throwing money at the wrong problem. It is labour costs, not tax bills, that need to fall, if France is to counter the decline in its competitive position and its overall creditworthiness. This matters: it will issue €170bn of debt next year, and its borrowing costs will surely rise. La patrie is not en danger. But la fête is definitely finie.

面对一份关于法国工业缺乏竞争力的报告，法国社会党政府的回应是推出总额达200亿欧元的企业税收减免。这种做法是把钱浪费在了错误的地方。如果法国准备阻挡其竞争地位和总体信用评级的下滑趋势，就必须削减劳动力成本，而不是削减税收。这一点关系重大：法国明年将发行1700亿欧元的债券，而其借贷成本肯定会上升。虽然祖国尚未面临危险，但好日子却是一去不复返了。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析