各类企业纷纷拓荒缅甸市场

For Tim Love, a vice chairman of advertising giant Omnicom Group, it was an opportunity too good to pass up: an entire country, off the map for most Western investors for decades, embracing foreign investment in a place with untapped energy resources and 60 million people.

对于广告巨头宏盟集团(Omnicom Group)的副董事长拉夫(Tim Love)来说，这是一个不容错过的好机会：一个坐拥未开发能源及6,000万人口、被多数西方投资者忘却了数十年的完整国度，正敞开双臂欢迎外国投资的到来。

Here was Myanmar, also known as Burma, with the wagons 'going full speed,' says Mr. Love, and clients clamoring to get a foothold.

拉夫说，这就是“全速前进的缅甸，客户抢着要获得一席之地的缅甸。

But doing business here is something of a challenge. As a former military state, Myanmar has minimal infrastructure for conducting international business. Most foreign cellphone plans don't work there, and newcomers must carry a lot of cash because it is hard to get money. Mr. Love himself met with a local advertising firm whose website credits its founder with 'the actual creation of Myanmar's advertising industry.' How did he find the company? He typed 'advertising in Myanmar' into the Internet.

但在缅甸营商可谓是一种挑战。曾受军政府统治的缅甸极缺开展国际业务所需的基础设施。大多数外国运营商的手机合约计划在缅甸都用不了。刚到缅甸的人必须随身携带一大笔现金，因为想在缅甸取钱很难。拉夫自己接触了当地一家广告公司，该公司网站称其创始人“实际上缔造了缅甸的广告业。拉夫又是怎么找到这家公司的呢？他上网用关键词“缅甸广告搜出来的。

From global multinationals to one-man entrepreneurs, businesses are abuzz over what may be one of the world's last great -- but hardly stable -- business frontiers. Starting last year, a new, nominally civilian government took power in Myanmar and embarked on a broad set of political and financial reforms that has convinced U.S. and European powers to drop most economic sanctions.

从全球跨国公司到单枪匹马的个体户，各类企业都在纷纷议论缅甸。这个国家可能是全世界最后一批拥有很大潜力的前沿市场之一，但很难说是一个稳定的市常从去年开始，一个名义上的非军政府在缅甸上台，并开启一系列广泛的政治经济改革。这些改革说服欧美列强取消了针对缅甸的大多数经济制裁措施。

The result has been one of the biggest emerging market gold rushes since Vietnam and Russia opened up to more investment in the 1990s. For some companies, only Cuba and North Korea remain.

因此缅甸上演了自90年代越南、俄罗斯引进更多投资以来最大规模的新兴市场淘金热之一。对一些公司而言，现在就只剩古巴和朝鲜尚未涉足。

That attention may only intensify, now that President Barack Obama plans to take early next week the first-ever trip to Myanmar by a U.S. president, as part of a wider Asian tour.

美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)计划于下周初访问缅甸，成为历史上第一位访问缅甸的美国总统。有鉴于此，缅甸受到的关注或许只会进一步增加。

The trip would have been unthinkable 18 months ago, when Myanmar was still considered a pariah state by most U.S. leaders. It is expected to further spotlight the country's dramatic opening to Western business interests, while also giving Washington a chance to press for further social and economic reforms.

放在18个月前，这次访问不可想象，因为当时缅甸在大多数美国领导人看来还是一个备受冷落的国家。这次访问预计将使缅甸对西方商业利益的大幅度开放受到进一步关注，同时让华盛顿有机会敦促缅甸进一步推进社会经济改革。

Business leaders say the magnitude of the Myanmar opportunity is hard to describe. The population is larger than South Korea and South Africa, and almost triple that of Australia. Those people need factories to churn out products, power to keep those factories running and exploration technology to find natural resources for that power.

商界领导人说，缅甸机会之大很难形容。缅甸的人口比南非和韩国多，几乎是澳大利亚的三倍。这些人需要有工厂来生产各类产品，需要有电力来维持这些工厂的运转，而为了发电，还需要有勘探技术来寻找发电所用的自然资源。

Indeed, many investors and companies are eyeing openings in everything from oil and gas exploration to new infrastructure in a country that barely has any in some regions. And while poverty is high in the country, a small but growing urban elite is quickly developing Western tastes for everything from cars to soft drinks. Only last August did a major U.S. studio release its first film here in decades -- 'Titanic 3-D.'

事实上，很多投资者和企业都瞄准了各种各样的机会，如石油天然气的勘探，又如基础设施的兴建。缅甸某些地区几乎没有任何基础设施。虽然贫困率很高，但人数不多、成长迅速的城市精英群体正在养成对汽车、软饮料等西式生活方式的喜好。就在今年8月，美国一家主要电影公司上映了该公司数十年来在缅甸的第一部影片：《3D泰坦尼克》(Titanic 3-D)。

'If I was 25 years old and single, I'd just go there,' says David Grayson, managing director at New York-based stockbrokerage Auerbach Grayson & Co., who has made two trips to the country so far this year. 'It's just ready for takeoff.'

纽约股票经纪公司Auerbach Grayson & Co.的董事总经理格雷森(David Grayson)说：如果我只有25岁并且单身，我就直接去缅甸了；它已经做好了起飞的准备。今年以来格雷森去过缅甸两次。

Already, more than a dozen Fortune 500 companies have jumped into the fray: MasterCard Inc. and Visa Inc. are working to roll out credit cards; General Electric Co. is hoping to land big electric power contracts; and Coca-Cola Co. is negotiating to open at least one factory in an investment that could total as much as $200 million over three years, according to people with knowledge of the company's plans.

已经有十几家财富500强(Fortune 500)企业加入了进军缅甸市场的行列。万事达(MasterCard Inc.)和维萨(Visa Inc.)正在为推出信用卡而努力；通用电气(General Electric Co.)期待拿下几笔大额电力合同；知情人士说，可口可乐(Coca-Cola Co.)正在为至少开设一家工厂而谈判，这笔投资在三年内有望达到2亿美元。

In a recent visit to the country, Coca-Cola chief executive Muhtar Kent presented Myanmar President Thein Sein with photos of Coke's operations here from the 1920s and 1930s, just before Coke last pulled out, and made a case for letting the drinks juggernaut enter in full force again.

可口可乐首席执行长穆泰康(Muhtar Kent)最近访问缅甸，期间他向缅甸总统吴登盛(Thein Sein)展示了20世纪20年代、30年代可口可乐撤出前夕在缅甸运营的照片，并力陈允许可口可乐再次全力进入缅甸的主张。

Japanese, Thai and other Asian companies are trying to move even faster, with Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co. and Sumitomo Corp. each expanding their presences in Yangon, the country's largest city. Thai construction and petrochemicals companies are trying to kick-start a $50 billion industrial zone and port called Dawei.

日本、泰国和其他亚洲国家的企业动作更快。三菱(Mitsubishi Corp.)、三井集团(Mitsui & Co.)和住友商事(Sumitomo Corp.)都在扩大它们在缅甸最大城市仰光的经营规模。泰国建筑企业和石化企业正在努力启动耗资500亿美元的“土瓦(Dawei)工业园区兼港口项目。

'You can smell the change on the streets, in the hotels, in the airports -- it's everywhere,' said Ramesh Tainwala, president of the Asia Pacific division of Samsonite International SA, which now has five shops in the country and plans to add 15 more over the next three-to-five years.

新秀丽国际有限公司(Samsonite International SA)亚太区总裁Ramesh Tainwala说：在街上、在酒店、在机场，你都可以闻到变革的气息，无处不在。新秀丽目前在缅甸拥有五家门店，并计划在未来三到五年增开15家。

But the jury is out on whether Myanmar will prove to be a bonanza or a quagmire. When other countries such as Vietnam and Russia opened to the global economy, many of the first movers lost money. Lucrative assets wound up in the hands of politically connected locals or state-owned vehicles. Periods of euphoria were followed by market crashes. Many investors fear the same is about to happen in Myanmar.

但在缅甸经商祸福难料。越南和俄罗斯等其他国家向世界经济开放的时候，很多率先出动的企业都亏了钱。挣钱的资产到头来落入到有政界人脉的当地人或国有企业手中。一阵阵的盲目乐观之后是市场的崩溃。很多投资者担心缅甸也会有同样的情况发生。

What is more, the country presents its own peculiar set of risks that are off the charts even by emerging-market standards. Though not a major issue for investors yet, the new government is struggling to control outbreaks of intercommunal violence; the most recent, in which Buddhist and Muslim residents clashed in parts of western Myanmar, led to more than 80 deaths and thousands of homes torched. (The country was also hit with an earthquake in the northern region over the weekend, killing at least a half dozen people.)

除此以外，缅甸还有它自己的一系列特殊风险，即使按新兴市场的标准来看，这些风险也非同一般。新政府很难控制社区之间暴力冲突的暴发。最近一次冲突发生在缅甸西部佛教与穆斯林居民中间，80多人死亡，数千户住宅被焚。只是到目前为止，这类风险对投资者来说还不是一个大问题。（周末缅甸北部还发生了一次地震，至少有六人死亡。）

Overall, analysts say, the economy is largely a wreck, with spotty electrical power, few ways to move money in and out and a court system stacked with friends of the former regime. Corruption is worse than Zimbabwe or Sudan, according to Transparency International, a Berlin-based graft-fighting group.

分析人士说，从总体上看，缅甸经济基本上是一片废墟：电力不稳，资金出入渠道不多，法院系统到处都是前政权的朋友。据伯林反贪组织透明国际(Transparency International)排名，缅甸的腐败比津巴布韦或苏丹都更严重。

Complicating matters is the fact that U.S. foreign investors still have to be careful about talking business with Specially Designated Nationals, individuals the U.S. has sanctions against for alleged ties to the former military regime. Many of them are still powerful in the local economy -- and pop up at trade conferences.

让事情更复杂的是，美国投资者在跟“特别指定国民(Specially Designated National)谈生意的时候仍需谨慎。“特别指定国民是那些被指与前军事政权有往来、因而被美国制裁的个人。很多“特别指定国民在缅甸经济中仍有很大的实力，并不时出现在贸易论坛上。

For now, even ATMs here are rare, as are places that accept credit cards. During one visit, Ernie Bower, of Fairfax, Va.-based BowerGroupAsia, says he remembers being surrounded by wide-eyed staff members at a Yangon hotel who said he was the first guest able to use a card there in a long time. At least he had a hotel: With only about 1,850 rooms with business-travel amenities in Yangon, hotels that used to be 20% full much of the year are now often fully booked.

目前，缅甸就连自动柜员机都很少，更不用说受理信用卡的地点。弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯BowerGroupAsia的鲍尔(Ernie Bower)说，他记得有一次在访问缅甸的过程中，一家仰光酒店的服务员惊奇地围着他，说他是很长时间以来第一个能在那里刷卡的客人。至少他是订到了酒店：仰光商旅设施总共只有大约1,850个房间，以往一年到头很多时候入住率都只有20%左右的酒店，现在常常已被订满。

None of this has gone unnoticed by the new government, of course, whose supporters acknowledge the country's drawbacks, but also say Myanmar has some funding for change. The government, for example, has pocketed huge sums of money selling natural resources such as natural gas, which netted $3 billion in export revenues in the year ended March. 31.

当然这一切都受到了新政府的注意。其支持者承认缅甸的不足之处，但也表示缅甸有一些变革的资本。比如，政府通过出售天然气等自然资源获得了巨额资金，截至3月31日的一年内，缅甸天然气净出口收入达30亿美元。

'Of course, we lacked everything in the past, but now we are trying to change,' says Nay Zin Latt, who is serving as an adviser to Myanmar President Thein Sein. 'Reform is everywhere.'

缅甸总统吴登盛(Thein Sein)的顾问Nay Zin Latt说：当然我们过去什么都缺，但现在我们正在努力改变；改革无处不在。

The new dawn in Myanmar has caught even its most avid followers by surprise. Formerly a British colony, it played a major role in World War II before a military junta took over in 1962, plunging the country into decades of isolation that culminated in Western sanctions over the past 20 years.

缅甸的新黎明让紧盯它的观察者都感到意外。缅甸曾是英国的殖民地，在第二次世界大战期间发挥了重要作用。1962年一个军人集团接管政权，把缅甸拖进了数十年的与世隔绝状态，而以过去20年西方的制裁尤甚。

The junta was notorious for weird and disastrous economic policies: In the 1980s under former dictator Ne Win, for instance, new money was printed with odd denominations such as 45 kyat and 90 kyat notes, reflecting the general's numerological preferences.

这个军人集团以其怪异的、灾难性的经济政策而臭名远扬：比如80年代在前独裁者吴奈温(Ne Win)统治时期，新钞印出了奇奇怪怪的面值，如45元和90元。这反映了吴奈温的数字迷信。

Chinese and other Asian companies continued to invest in the country's natural gas fields, hydroelectric dams and other projects. But the military kept a tight grip on most ventures while leaving Myanmar one of the world's poorest nations, with per capita gross domestic product equivalent to about $1,300 -- on par with Haiti.

中国企业和其他亚洲企业继续投资于缅甸的天然气田、水电大坝等项目。但军方严格地控制着大多数项目，缅甸依然是世界上最贫穷的国家之一。其人均国内生产总值在1,300美元左右，与海地相当。

Fewer than 20 out of every 1,000 residents have vehicles, compared with more than 800 in the U.S. Only about 26% of the population had access to reliable electricity last year, according to the Asian Development Bank.

缅甸每1,000户居民当中，拥有汽车的家庭不到20户，相比之下美国拥有汽车的家庭超过800户。据亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)数据，去年缅甸只有26%的人口拥有稳定的电力供应。

Experts who follow Myanmar say they still aren't sure why the former regime, which was accused of widespread human-rights violations, decided to dismantle itself. The new government, led largely by former military officers, which took power last year after strongman Than Shwe retired and dropped out of sight, has said it wants to bring reconciliation to the country and catch up economically with Myanmar's neighbors.

跟踪缅甸的专家说，他们仍不知道被指广泛侵犯人权的前军事政权是出于什么原因而自行解散的。去年，铁腕人物丹瑞(Than Shwe)退休、并消失在人们视线之外，随后以前军官为主的新政府上台。新政府曾表示希望全国和解，并在经济上追赶邻国。

Many Westerners don't doubt the sincerity, but no one really knows what will happen when the country holds its next national vote in 2015. Impatient youth groups have organized street protests recently, and analysts say they could become more restive if reforms don't keep coming quickly.

很多西方人不怀疑新政府的真诚，但没人真正知道2015年缅甸举行下次全国选举的时候会发生什么。急不可耐的青年团体已在最近组织街头示威，分析人士说，如果不迅速推进改革，他们可能会变得更不安宁。