第三季公司收入预示美国经济不容乐观

While corporate executives obsessively watch the bottom line, practitioners of the dismal science prefer to focus on the big picture. Lately some have found reason for concern in the part of companies' public reports that is up top: sales.

在公司高管执迷地盯着财务报表底部的利润数据之际，经济学家宁愿着眼于宏观。最近一些经济学家从公司报表顶头的销售数字当中，发现了值得担忧的苗头。

Do economists have their heads in the clouds or does disappointing corporate revenue really spell trouble as the fourth quarter moves into the home stretch?

在第四季度进入最后一程之际，是经济学家在胡思乱想，还是令人失望的公司收入确实预示着麻烦的出现？

With nearly all of the S&P 500 having reported third-quarter results, earnings were hardly robust but still slightly better than expected. In early October, consensus forecasts compiled by Thomson Reuters called for a 2% drop in year-on-year earnings growth. That would have been the first decline since the recession. The final figure should show they grew, though barely.

标准普尔500指数的成分股公司几乎全都已经发布了第三季度业绩，它们的利润很难说强劲，但还是略好于预期。根据汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)10月上旬的调查，分析师普遍预计利润将同比下降2%。若果真如此，这将是本次衰退结束以来的第一次下降。但最终数字应该会显示利润实现了增长，虽然只不过是勉强实现了增长。

But corporate revenue was surprisingly weak with 61% of companies lagging behind expectations and revenue shrinking by nearly a percentage point─the first decline since 2009.

但公司收入的疲软出人意料。61%的公司低于预期，收入下降接近1%，是2009年以来第一次出现下降。

That is significant because while margins fluctuate, revenue generally tracks nominal gross domestic product. Third-quarter economic growth of 2% beat forecasts, and that is likely to be revised higher when updated figures are released later this week. Meanwhile, estimates for fourth-quarter growth have slipped to 1.8%, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal. Even that may be too high if sales keep slipping.

这一点之所以重要，是因为利润率常有起伏，但收入的变化总体上与名义国内生产总值保持着一致。第三季度2%的经济增长高于预期，本周晚些时候发布更新后数据时，可能还会进一步调高。与此同时，根据《华尔街日报》的调查，第四季度经济增长率估计值已经下降至1.8%。如果企业销售额继续下降，实际经济增长水平可能比这个数字都还要低。

The composition of S&P 500 revenue provides reason for guarded optimism. The sectors with the least growth were materials, energy and utilities. Lower commodity and energy costs can aid the rest of the economy.

标普500指数的构成让人感到谨慎乐观。收入增长最少的行业是材料、能源和公用事业。大宗商品和能源价格的下降可以对其他经济部门带来帮助。

Another reason to relax─about the U.S. economy─was that disappointing revenue correlated with international exposure. Slowing growth abroad and a strong dollar pinched revenue.

另一个让人(对美国经济)感到放心的理由则是，收入低于预期与企业的国际敞口有关。国外增长减速、美元升值都影响了美国企业的收入。

McDonald's Corp. saw flat sales in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, but revenue would have risen by 4% without currency impacts.

麦当劳(McDonald's Corp.)第三季度收入同比持平，但如果没有汇率的影响，其收入将会增长4%。

On the other hand, McDonald's also gave a worrying preview for the fourth quarter: October saw its first monthly sales decline in nine years. And the U.S., rather than foreign markets, led the drop.

另一方面，麦当劳的情况预示着第四季度不容乐观：其10月份销售额出现九年来第一次下降，而且领头下降的不是国外市场，而是美国市常

Instead of exchange rates and commodity prices, the explanations for another round of weak corporate revenue may be homegrown woes such as the fiscal cliff. With economic growth already so close to stall speed, corporations' top lines need to get into a higher gear.

如果公司收入再次疲软，其原因恐怕将是财政悬崖之类的国内危机，而不是汇率或大宗商品价格。在经济增长如此接近于停滞的情况下，公司的销售额得加速前进才行。