美国大选体现人口结构变化

President Barack Obama's election victory exposed tectonic demographic shifts in American society that are reordering the U.S. political landscape.

美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)获得连任，揭示出美国社会的人口构成发生了结构性变化，这种变化正在重构美国的政治版图。

The 2012 presidential election likely will be remembered as marking the end of long-standing coalitions, as voters regroup in cultural, ethnic and economic patterns that challenge both parties -- but especially Republicans.

随着具有不同文化、种族和经济背景的选民集团重组为新的选民联盟，2012年的总统选举可能会作为一些存在已久的选民联盟走向末路的标志而被铭记。这一重组对两党、特别是共和党构成了挑战。

Older voters and white working-class voters, once core elements of the Democratic Party, have drifted into the Republican column. Rural and small-town voters, whose grandparents backed the New Deal, now fill the swath of the U.S. that leans reliably GOP.

中老年选民和白人劳工选民曾是民主党的核心元素，他们已经慢慢走向共和党的队列。乡村和小城选民的祖辈曾支持罗斯福新政，现在他们却构成了美国选民中牢牢忠实于共和党的那一部分。

But in cities and dynamic suburbs, a rapidly growing force of Latinos, Asian-Americans, African-Americans and higher-income whites emerged this week as the strength of Mr. Obama's winning Democratic coalition.

但城市及繁华郊区的拉美裔、亚裔、非洲裔和中高收入白种人形成一股越来越强大的力量，对奥巴马的民主党阵营本周赢得大选起了重要作用。

'The Democrats now own a coalition of emerging metro areas where the whites and minorities live together, and where they vote Democratic,' said Robert Lang, a demographer who directs the Brookings Mountain West, a research center at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

内华达大学(University of Nevada)拉斯维加斯分校Brookings Mountain West研究中心主任、人口学家朗格(Robert Lang)说，民主党目前在新兴大都会地区拥有一个选民联盟，在这些地区，白人和少数族裔一起生活，他们把票投给民主党。

In northern Virginia's Fairfax County, for example, Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly represents a district where 20 years ago, he said, 3% of residents were born outside the U.S. Now, it is nearly 30%, with the majority Asian immigrants.

他说，比如在民主党众议员康诺利(Gerry Connolly)所代表的选区、弗吉尼亚北部的费尔法克斯县，20年前有3%的居民在美国以外出生，现在这个比例接近30%，其中大部分是亚洲移民。

Mr. Obama won big there Tuesday, helping him to tally the once reliably Republican state of Virginia for the second straight general election.

奥巴马周二在当地大获全胜，这成为他连续两次在大选中赢得弗吉尼亚的原因之一。在过去，弗吉尼亚一直被共和党牢牢控制。

Similar shifts throughout the U.S. help explain how Mr. Obama was returned to the White House on support from young people, minorities, women and upscale whites, a coalition virtually identical to the one that carried him to victory four years ago.

美国各地同样的变化，有助于解释奥巴马是怎样依靠年轻人、少数族裔、妇女和上层白人的支持而再次入主白宫的。也是这个选民联盟四年前让他赢得了大眩

Some political analysts thought that coalition came together only because of the historic nature of Mr. Obama's 2010 victory and wouldn't prove durable. That belief didn't hold up this week.

一些政治分析人士曾认为，只是由于奥巴马在2010年的胜选，人们才会认为存在这样一个选民联盟，这个联盟不会长久维持。但这一观念在本周没有经受住检验。

The question now is whether Mr. Obama and other members of his party can solidify this coalition into a foundation of the Democratic Party.

现在的问题是，奥巴马和其他民主党人能不能巩固这个同盟，使它成为民主党的一个基矗

Republicans said their party won a smashing victory in congressional elections just two years ago, when they took control of the House of Representatives, illustrating that there is no clear claim for either party.

共和党人说，他们的政党在两年前的国会选举中还曾大获全胜并取得众议院的控制权，这说明两党都没有绝对的把握。

The 2010 election, they said, shows that even with modest inroads among Latino and Asian-American voters, the GOP can build a solid majority on the foundation of its strong white support. Republicans enjoy historically high levels of control over governorships and state legislatures, which they say shows the party's potential if it can improve its message to minorities.

他们说，2010年的选举表明，只需要在拉美裔和亚裔选民中稍作宣传，共和党就能在获得白种人强烈支持的基础上形成稳固的多数地位。他们说，历史上共和党在州政府和州议会享有很大的控制权，这说明只要加强对少数族裔的宣传，共和党还是有潜力的。

In any case, both Democrats and Republicans see new contours of a split electorate.

不管怎样，民主党和共和党都看到了选民分裂的新苗头。

Twenty years after supporting former President Bill Clinton, a majority of white voters have returned to where they were during the Reagan administration, firmly planted in the Republican camp. Nearly six in 10 white voters told exit pollsters Tuesday that they sided with Republicans, up from 40% during Mr. Clinton's 1992 presidential victory.

20年前，大部分白种人都支持前总统克林顿(Bill Clinton)，现在他们又像在里根政府时期一样，牢牢地站在共和党阵营。周二接近六成的白人选民对选后调查员说他们和共和党站在一起。这个比例高于克林顿在1992年当选总统时的40%。

More striking is the GOP's loose grip on minority voters: just 29% of Latinos, 25% of Asians and 8% of African Americans said Tuesday they identified with the Republican Party.

更惊人的是共和党在少数族裔选民中的低支持率。仅29%的拉美裔、25%的亚裔和8%的非洲裔选民周二说他们支持共和党。

The trend has strengthened the Democrats' hold in cities and extended a new reach into once-white suburbs now filling with successful Asian and South Asian immigrants, as well as Hispanics.

这种趋势让民主党在城市强化优势，并向郊区拓展。郊区曾经是白人居住区，现在则多是成功的亚洲移民、南亚移民和拉丁裔在那里居祝

Mr. Obama scored a big win, for example, in Denver's Arapahoe County, a bedroom community of family farms and high-tech firms. The county, in turn, helped propel Mr. Obama to victory for the second time in Colorado, formerly a Republican-leaning state.

比如奥巴马得票率很高的丹佛市阿拉珀霍县(Arapahoe County)就是一个面向家庭农场和高科技公司的住宅区。这个县帮助奥巴马在昔日倾向于共和党的科罗拉多州再一次赢得了胜利。

The presidential election also cast a spotlight on a generational shift under way.

这次总统选举还让人注意到正在发生的代际转换。

Senior citizens, who swung to the Democrats during the Medicare and Social Security fights of the 1990s, have swerved to Republicans. Close to six in 10 seniors backed Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, according to exit polls Tuesday, up from the 51% of the group siding with Sen. John McCain in 2010.

上世纪90年代在“联邦医保和“社会保障争斗中偏向民主党的老年选民已经倒向共和党。据周二的选后民调，接近六成的老年选民支持共和党总统候选人罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)，而2010年老龄选民支持麦凯恩(John McCain)的比例为51%。

The split by age reached even deeper: A majority of voters age 40 and older sided with Mr. Romney. The majority of every younger age group voted for Mr. Obama, according to exit polls.

选民的年龄分裂进一步加深。选后民调显示，40岁及以上的选民多数站在罗姆尼一边，40岁以下每一个年龄段，多数都是投给了奥巴马。

When former President George H.W. Bush, Mr. Reagan and Mr. Clinton won their respective elections, they won among all ages. But no Republican presidential candidate has won a majority of voters under age 30 since Mr. Bush in 1988.

前总统老布什(George H.W. Bush)、里根、克林顿在赢得各自的选举时，都赢得了所有年龄段选民的支持。但从1988年的老布什之后，还没有哪个共和党总统候选人赢得了30岁以下选民中的多数。

Polls earlier this year showed cooling interest among young voters in the Obama re-election campaign. But turnout among voters ages 18 to 29, in fact, eclipsed the 2010 election, with nearly 60% siding with the president.

今年早些时候的民调显示，年轻选民在奥巴马连任竞选中的热情有所降温。但事实上18到29岁选民的投票率超过了2010年，其中接近六成都投给了奥巴马。

The robust turnout by younger voters boosted Democrats nearly as much as the strong showing among Latinos.

年轻选民踊跃投票对民主党选情的提振作用，几乎不亚于拉丁裔选民高投票率带来的提振。

Concerns grew Wednesday among some Republicans that the party's base will be hobbled in national elections if it becomes too old, too rural and too white. 'What worries me is that the GOP is about to become the WOP -- the White Old Party,' said Norm Coleman, a former Minnesota senator.

周三一些共和党人更加担心，如果共和党过于老龄化、乡村化、白色化，那么该党在全国的选民基础将更加薄弱。前明尼苏达参议员科尔曼(Norm Coleman)说，让我担心的是GOP（大老党，共和党代称）即将变成WOP──白老党(White Old Party)。

Nothing casts more fear in the GOP than estrangement with the swelling U.S. Hispanic population, which now accounts for 10% of the electorate.

让共和党最为担忧的，莫过于它与拉丁裔人口的疏离。不断膨胀的拉丁裔人口目前占选民总数的10%。

During the 1970s and 1980s, Republican presidential candidates routinely received a third or more of the Latino vote. Former President George W. Bush garnered just over 40% in 2004. That share has since plummeted amid sometimes harsh debate over legislation to deal with millions of illegal immigrants, mostly from Mexico, living in the U.S.

20世纪70年代和80年代，共和党总统候选人经常获得三分之一或以上的拉丁裔选票。2004年，前总统小布什(George W. Bush)获得的拉丁裔选票略超40%。后来因为在关于非法移民的立法辩论中不时发表强硬措辞，共和党这一比例大幅下降。美国有数百万非法移民，大部分来自墨西哥。

Mr. Romney got 29% of the Hispanic vote Tuesday, the lowest share since Sen. Bob Dole ran for president in 1996.

罗姆尼周二获得29%的拉丁裔选票，是1996年参议员多尔(Bob Dole)参选总统以来的最低比例。

'The party has hit a new floor,' said Al Cardenas, the head of the American Conservative Union and former chairman of the Florida Republican Party. 'The reality is we face a very big, very important shifting demographic in the country, and we saw how it played out in Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia.'

美国保守派联盟(American Conservative Union)主席、佛罗里达共和党(Florida Republican Party)前主席卡德纳斯(Al Cardenas)说，共和党已经降至新的低点；我们面临的现实是美国正在发生非常大、非常重要的人口变迁，科罗拉多、佛罗里达、内华达和弗吉尼亚的情况就体现了这一点。

Mr. Obama beat Mr. Romney among Latinos by 58% to 40% in Florida; 87% to 10% in Colorado; 80% to 17% in Nevada; and 66% to 31% in Virginia, according to an ImpreMedia/Latino Decisions poll.

据ImpreMedia/Latino Decisions的调查，奥巴马和罗姆尼在佛罗里达拉丁裔选民中的得票率分别为58%和40%；在科罗拉多分别为87%和10%，在内华达分别为80%和17%，在弗吉尼亚分别为66%和31%。

'Texas probably has a huge potential to trend Democratic if the Democratic Party engages the electorate there,' said Matt Barreto, co-founder of the Latino Decisions polling firm.

调查公司Latino Decisions联合创始人巴雷托(Matt Barreto)说，如果民主党跟得克萨斯的选民相接触，那么该州向民主党倾斜的潜力可能是非常大的。

The Romney campaign devoted attention to Asian voters, particularly in northern Virginia. Exit polls showed the Asian vote expanding to 3% of the total U.S. electorate -- an all-time high -- with 75% of those votes cast for Mr. Obama.

罗姆尼阵营把注意力放在了亚裔选民身上，特别是在弗吉尼亚北部。选后民调显示亚裔扩大至美国选民总数的3%，创历史新高，而他们75%的选票都投给了奥巴马。