盖茨称2035年世界上将几乎没有穷国

As snowy Davos becomes engulfed in the hustle and bustle of another World Economic Forum, Microsoft founder Bill Gates took the opportunity to deliver an upbeat message in his annual newsletter.

随着新一届世界经济论坛即将开始，微软创始人比尔·盖茨借此机会在自己的年度报告中发表了乐观言论。

The 25-page report, written by Gates and his wife Melinda, who are co-chairs of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, argued that the world is a better place than it has even been before.

在这份长达25页的报告中，盖茨及夫人梅琳达（比尔及梅林达·盖茨基金会联合主席）认为，目前经济状况比之前要好。

Gates predicted that by 2035, there would be almost no poor countries left in the world, using today's World Bank classification of low-income countries — even after adjusting for inflation.

通过使用世界银行对低收入国家的分类、以及剔除通胀因素，盖茨预计到2035年，世界上将几乎没有贫穷国家。

"Poor countries are not doomed to stay poor. Some of the so-called developing nations have already developed," he said in a his annual note, published on Tuesday.

“穷国并不是注定一直贫穷下去。一些所谓的发展中国家已经发达了。”比尔·盖茨在周二发布的年度报告中写到。

"I am optimistic enough about this that I am willing to make a prediction. By 2035, there will be almost no poor countries left in the world."

“对于这一点我很乐观，很愿意做出预测：到2035年为止世界上将几乎不再有贫穷国家。”

"By almost any measure, the world is better than it has ever been. People are living longer, healthier lives. Extreme poverty rates have been cut in half in the past 25 years. Child mortality is plunging. Many nations that were aid recipients are now self-sufficient," he said.

盖茨说：“从各个方面来讲，世界的状况都要比之前好多了。人们寿命更长，身体更健康。极端贫穷率在过去的25年中下降了一半，儿童死亡率大幅下跌。许多曾接受国际援助的国家现在已经能够自给自足了。”

Three big myths

三大误解

Gates will take the stage on Friday to address myths about global development, and will challenge its most vocal critics.

盖茨还将在周五的演讲中对全球发展的三大误解进行解读，并重点阐述最受争议的误解。

The three biggest myths, according to Gates, are that poor countries are doomed to stay poor, that foreign aid is a big waste and that saving lives leads to overpopulation.

据盖茨报告，三大误解分别是：穷国将永远穷下去；外国援助是极大的浪费；拯救生命会导致人口过剩。

Using data from academics, the World Bank and the United Nations, he makes the opposite case — arguing that the world is getting better. "I understand why people might hold these negative views. This is what they see in the news. Bad news happens in dramatic events that are easy for reporters to cover," he said.

借用学术研究、世界银行和联合国的数据，盖茨做出了乐观预测，他说世界正变得更加美好。“我理解为什么人们会持有这些消极看法。他们经常看到负面资讯，因为记者更喜欢报道抓人眼球的坏消息。”

"Countries are getting richer, but it's hard to capture that on video. Health is improving, but there's no press conference for children who did not die of malaria."

“许多国家都正变得更加富有，但这很难在镜头中展现出来。人们的健康水平在改善，但记者却从未做过那些幸免于疟疾儿童的报道。”